Who's got the stones to go short crude?

Discussion in 'Energy Futures' started by xenix, Aug 21, 2009.

  1. xenix

    xenix

    A few months ago when I heard that NG was low compared to crude and everyone was thinking that meant NG had to go higher, I was thinking just the opposite, that crude had to go lower.

    I didn't move on that trade because my timing is so bad it both sucks and blows.

    But with regulation of speculators in the wind and no obvious source of demand in the immediate future, I'm thinking now might be a good time for a little taste of DTO with margin sauce.

    it was up over 2% today so I have a bid in for 0.5% under today's close. Do I need a shrink or a bigger wallet?
     
  2. Totally agree it is about time to start scaling into it.
    I wouldn't be surprised if oil would go even higher from here (say 75-77) But it doesn't change a thing.
    The main thing I would be surprised to see is oil holding above 50 until October.

    http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=171677&perpage=6&pagenumber=4

    The first (and so far the last) post on that page makes a lot of sense to me. Also, I must say that unlike OIL where GS&Co can simply keep it off shore for a while - NAT GAS is waaay more reliable indicator of energy demand since you should use it right away (well, almost)
     
  3. i have the stones, i just don't have the monis :D

    ps: xom at 69.5s an alternative though
     
  4. xenix

    xenix

    I don't know what's going on, but I almost whip-lash following the DTO chart this morning.

    I've got an 8% trailing stop that got executed by just 7 cents before it bounced back just over $3.

    Damn. All in about 15 min.

    I think I'm just going to watch and play with my chips.
     
  5. "Bluffing" doesn't work with commodities. :cool:
     
  6. xenix

    xenix

    Maybe, but they sure as hell know how to flush you out. Volatility for the day was close to 10% (low to high).

    It sucks to be me. :(
     
  7. xenix

    xenix

    Maybe, but they sure as hell know how to flush you out. Volatility for the day was close to 10% (low to high). And let's conveniently forget to mention the after hours. It's been a couple minutes since I checked so who TF knows, it might be down 10%.

    That was a joke, I say, a joke son.

    It sucks to be me. :(