Who's afraid of the big, bad bear?

my S&P target is 1225.
my DOW target is 11,200.
my Nasdaq target is 2100.

 

Sorry,i t's not a bear market if idiot dip buyers sit and wait for exactly 20% pullback and rush in like shoppers on black thursday. Being down 20% for 5 minutes doesnt qualify. We have much longer and much lower to go before a real bottom of this bear is reached. When absolutely no one is sitting there just itching to buy and everyone totally hates stocks only then maybe this bear ends. Funny to even be thinking of anything more then bounces at this point.

 

And time. Part of a bear market is psychology... the slow grinding down with despair.

 

AGREE WITH NOSCALPER. WHEN THE MARKET STARTS DROPPING SO MUCH THAT EVERYONE IS AFRAID TO PRESS THEIR BUY BUTTONS,A BOTTOM IS IN OR NEAR.

 

It is a bear market. For 2 years I will not buy, unless a new high is made in the meanwhile.

 

hmmm now heres the real question even though using the past to predict the future is useless . ..
Has any index ever corrected 20% and then returned to a bull market right after?

 

Jeremy Grantham, "one of the grandest of thinkers and most eloquent of oracles," tells Barron's that today's bear market is like none we've seen -- the difference being unprecedented financial globalization and a first-ever global bubble in virtually all asset prices. Grantham scoffs at the idea government-supplied stimulus can stop the bear; he foresees the S&P 500 (currently 1,334) at 1,100 by 2010.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/639...money-barron-s-interview-with-jeremy-grantham

GMO are pretty smart cookies.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10656844

I have always believed that looking at valuations at/near tops is meaningless. On the upside it is driven by fund flows, mutual fund marketing tactics and the public buying on incremental good news and thus overshoots, on the downside from a high if fear sets in it takes stocks way below suposed fair valuations.

 

Usually when someone says something like Jeremy Grantham said, I would expect the exact opposite.

The bear market will do exactly what all bear markets have done: Take in the order of 40% of equities out, and then head up (or at least stop moving down).

"This time is different ..." has always been a saying in any era.

PS: I was at the library and I saw that book that said dow 40000. That author must feel an idiot now. I hope he is young enough to live to see dow 40000.

 

Excellent articles; especially the Economist link.

Thanks very much for that.

 

ala Jim Rodgers - A bear market in equities usually comes with a bull market in commodities.

its just time to change lanes....