I generally find if someones does NOT have/post a track record, the chances of it outperforming are conisderably less likely
Not really .. economies of scale for one thing. The professional environment is a lot different too. You could hook on at a chop shop who will work a deal with you for backing and a % with a nice record but you wont get any looks as a fund manager. There is nothing wrong with getting a good deal from a chop shop.
Rest assured... WHEN you demonstrate enough market ability, the "professional environment" will find you.
Not really... Economies of scale is a HUGE hurdle and retail traders are a dime a dozen. Sure I agree that some make the jump but more likely you have to enter through the same door as all the others trying to and your own retail track record is not too much a leg up.
For example, if I had an account that was long aapl, short intc, long goog & another account that was short appl, long intc, long goog over a course of 2 years, I will only show the first account even though the second account is also a net profit because goog outweighs aapl in cash returns and intc growth is insignificant compared to the other two. But if it had been a bear market last 2 years, I will probably show the second account.