WHOA!!! China... With $586B to spend?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by scriabinop23, Nov 9, 2008.

  1. RZTrader

    RZTrader

    A lot of our infrastructure here is getting old and would need renovations... but we can't afford it. Not only are we out of money, but wages here are way too high compared to the chinese... their 586 billion will go a long way, given that they pay those road workers such a low wage... it won't be long before they have new 21st century instrastructure, while we have obsolete 20th century crumbled infrastructures...
     
    #11     Nov 10, 2008
  2. jprad

    jprad

    Population size is important from the perspective of keeping famine at bay, but that's their problem, not ours.

    Well, unless you're suffering from terminally socialist dementia...

    The more important number is a population's first derivative; per capita income.

    They're a long ways off from having enough disposable per capita income to make a difference.

    And, they're gonna need a hole lot of changes at the top before trickle down ever reaches rural China.
     
    #12     Nov 10, 2008
  3. jprad

    jprad

    You guys gotta stop looking at the world from a quarter over quarter perspective like it's just another 10-K.

    That's not a problem, that's an opportunity, a decades long opportunity that's just waiting to happen.

    Once the time is right it will be the ultimate source of new jobs, paid for with government issued, inflated dollars that will reflate housing, et al.
     
    #13     Nov 10, 2008
  4. W4rl0ck

    W4rl0ck

    Probably one of the better "calls" for the next couple of years.


     
    #14     Nov 10, 2008
  5. I don't know, seems a bit drastic to be throwing stimulus at 9% GDP growth...
     
    #15     Nov 10, 2008
  6. Yes, but china is dependent on growth around 10% in order to achieve their very ambitious goals for 2020. A lot of small factories/businesses have been shut down due to larger corporations being more dominant and much more efficient and as we know in the West, small businesses are the key to growth and employment.

    This article is quite interesting about the stimulus:

    ""We don't really know how large [this package] is. It does include lots of things that we already know about. It also includes a lot of things that would've happened regardless," said Eric Fishwick, a Hong Kong-based economist for CLSA. The stimulus package folds in anticipated expenditures, such as 1.0 trillion yuan ($146.4 billion) for post- earthquake reconstruction in southwestern China, corporate tax breaks, export rebates to stem the decline in manufacturing and land reform measures meant to reduce the rural-urban income gap."

    http://www.forbes.com/2008/11/10/ch...econ-cx_twdd_1110markets02.html?feed=rss_news
     
    #16     Nov 10, 2008
  7. zdreg

    zdreg

    why shouldn't it be different this time.? the rule that it is never different this time in not written in a stone for countries.
    In the US the educational system is a disgrace.
    in the US. the legacy costs are driving companies into bankruptcy.
    the gov't sector is too large. too many employees
    the debt level is too high on both the federal and state level.
    the country's private sector is getting slowly or fast getting nationalized.
    the country is moving away from capitalism to a too large to fail doctrine .

    why shouldn't the US have like Japan the lost years or even possibly decades?
    (Western europe obviously suffers the same way.)
     
    #17     Nov 10, 2008
  8. Too high compared to?
    [​IMG]
     
    #18     Nov 10, 2008
  9. jprad

    jprad

    If there's any rule associated with this it's that the argument unravels because it was based on well-chosen examples rather than an exhaustive study.

    A sweeping, and incorrect, generalization. Some areas of the country surely have broken public education systems, but not all of them do. Private education is working pretty well as evidenced by the enrollment numbers of foreigners in our universities.

    Again, not all companies are on the brink. Those that are managed poorly will die eventually.

    But, it's not permanent. It will eventually have to get pared down because it will eventually not be sustainable.

    Again, a generalization. Not all sectors have problems.

    This country is like a pendulum. This swing will eventually lose momentum and we'll start heading back to the center when times are good again. And, because we're too stupid to learn it'll swing too far in some other direction.

    Lather, rinse, repeat.

    Quite possible, but completely irrelevant to the argument that we need to learn Chinese.
     
    #19     Nov 10, 2008
  10. Mecro

    Mecro

    LOL, true.

    At least Japan maintains a respectable living standard, was a clean country & produced high tech. China is just a sh*thole.
     
    #20     Nov 10, 2008