Who wins in a Trade War? China or US?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by smallfil, May 10, 2019.

Who wins in a Trade War?

  1. US wins by a mile! Not even close.

    10 vote(s)
  2. China wins by a mile! Not even close.

    4 vote(s)
  3. US wins by a hair, close but, not decisive enough

    7 vote(s)
  4. China wins by a hair, close but, not decisive enough

    1 vote(s)
  5. Do not know who wins. I am just an ignorant troll.

    4 vote(s)
  1. Let's hope it takes 45+ million people to grease robots and turn on switches. Oh wait a minute, there's a robot for that ...
    #41     May 11, 2019
  2. Yang. Freedom dividend. HG Wells Time machine. These things will happen.
    #42     May 11, 2019
  3. it is a problem that some of the most renowned ai researchers and philosophers are grappling with. But it does not just tangent ai and robotics but in general, is an issue in all advanced economies where technological advances leave the less educated and skilled behind. Nobody today delivers mail or transports bulk on horses anymore, equally in the end, we will need to find ways to pull along the those who rely on or are trained in outdated occupational tools.

    Last edited: May 11, 2019
    #43     May 11, 2019
  4. LS1Z28


    Our GDP last year was the highest its been in 13 years. China's GDP was the lowest its been in 28 years. Since the start of the trade war our stock indexes are close to flat. The Shanghai composite is down about 20%.

    There's no doubt that the trade war has hurt China more than it has hurt us. Both sides would benefit from a deal, but China needs it more than we do. That leverage should allow us to come out on top. Hopefully the ends will justify the means.
    #44     May 11, 2019
  5. kj5159


    China has more to lose than the US simply because if they are no longer able to sell stuff to the US, there is no good substitute buyer. From the US point of view, if we stop buying their stuff we will have a much easier time finding replacement sellers relative to their ability to find replacement buyers.
    #45     May 11, 2019
    ElCubano, LS1Z28 and smallfil like this.
  6. smallfil


    Some of their products are toxic too although, probably, a lot of Americans are not aware of it. I saw an article with video years ago about what the Chinese are doing to the rice they are exporting. In order to stretch their rice supplies and be able to export more to the US, they have added shredded plastic with the rice. Can you imagine ingesting that rice with the plastic and probably, damage all your internal organs? Chinese culture encourages profit above honesty and everything else. Their steel is thinner which has been the complaint of US steel makers so, naturally, it is cheaper but, poorer quality. And those are used in buildings, bridges, etc. How much is your life worth? Then, there is the formaldehyde soaked wooden tile floors which cause cancer and other diseases. Lumber Liquidators had to pay huge fines because of it and recall those wooden tile floors.
    #46     May 11, 2019
  7. When I travel overseas, the only US exposure i see is fast food joints. I don't see many US cars or anything else. The world is big place, USA isn't a big influence as most americans think.
    #47     May 11, 2019
  8. In revenue, auto industry is about 10% of the size of (just) the food retail industry worldwide. Not that this means the world isn't a big place, but... What is more important.
    #48     May 11, 2019
  9. canoe


    if you actually read the USCIS report, you'd know that USCIS defined it specifically as 74% of Indian origin (as in, place of birth), not people who grew up and graduated and worked in India....and then moved over to the US as adults. there are tons of Asians who either immigrated to the US after being born in their respective countries or came to the US for college. these are usually kids from rich families or kids who were at the top of their class in primary school and were given the chance to attend college in the US...or both. every single one of people in this group are lumped in with the "unskilled workers from india" you're referring to so it's a useless statistic.

    for example, i was born abroad but attended MS, HS, college, and grad school all in the US, as an international student. i am as american as they come but i would be counted as being part of that 74% if my country of birth was india.

    the inter-company transfer of managerial executives is 1 of 3 categories within the EB1 category. it is also the one category that has literally no competition with unskilled Indian or Chinese counterparts so it is hardly relevant to the original discussion of uneducated Asian workers displacing skilled European ones.

    yes the trading floor is diverse but that's because the buy-side of finance is a meritocracy by design. that's also why most jobs where you actually have to know your shit like medicine, IT, engineering, scientific research, etc. are so diverse. b/c it's all about performance and results, and performance and results don't care about your ethnicity.

    but look at the sell-side of the finance business b/c that's where "soft factors" aka race, fit, etc. trump meritocracy, unlike the buy-side. also look at the partnership of v10 law firms (i'm talking cravath, wachtell, sullivan cromwell, kirkland ellis, skadden, davis polk, etc.), which i'm sure you're familiar with if you've ever worked at a respectable bank. i used to work in one of these firms and attaining partnership is the exact same story as it was the case with attaining MD in many of my IB clients like goldman. i mean, the sheer ignorance you must have to be complaining about there being an overrepresentation of Indian-americans in the IT managerial space when so much of the same for whites is present right in your back yard and then some, is ironic.

    i do not condone racist hiring/promotion practices, whether it's being done by Indians or Whites. but don't expect anyone to take you seriously when the hypocrisy is literally in plain sight for all to see. when Asians are passed over for partnership due to not being part of the boy's network with White partners, it is unsurprising that you would see a similar thing happening within Asians. this happens a lot even in Silicon Valley of all places, where there are a ton of Asian engineers but the ones who get promoted to manager often are not. when someone is rejected by members of another ethnicity, it is natural for him to seek refuge within his own ethnicity. as i said in the prev post, it's just a fact of life that people are attracted to their own. and racism only begets more racism from those that were a victim of it.

    your example of CMU's quant program is hardly representative. most of our IT folks come from CS undergrad programs from US colleges and the top CS undergrad programs are definitely populated by majority Asian-americans. i would know since i actually graduated from one.

    so you don't like family-based immigration because you think it undercuts the skilled people who want to immigrate to the US but can't. that is a valid point.

    but the crux of your original argument hinged upon unskilled Asian workers from Asia filling up the spots that the skilled European workers deserve to be getting. this is a largely separate issue from family-based immigration yet you somehow related the two. the way one would argue that it is NOT a separate issue is by making the assumption that if the US were to cut visa allocation to family-based petitions, the US would also increase merit-based petitions by the same amount. but now we're going on a tangent which i am not willing to waste even more time debating. you would also have to make the assumption that those benefiting from family-based petitions are the people "skilled Europeans" are in direct competition with. the issue becomes intricately more complex with additional x factors. your claims are too broad and involve different subsets whose relationships with one another aren't easily qualifiable. if you wanna debate, narrow the scope of your argument.

    i probably have similar conclusions about immigration reform as you do but for different reasons. it just pisses me the fuck off when people spout bullshit claims to support those conclusions- claims like how those lower-skilled Indians or Chinese or Mexicans are taking the white-collar, high-paying jobs from the educated White Europeans or Americans b/c of MUH CHEAP LABOR or MUH CHAIN MIGRATION.

    Chain migration is a problem for other reasons, like national security, welfare, etc. But don't give me this bullshit about how family chain migration is the reason these script kiddies from India are taking the high-paying managerial jobs that Europeans are more qualified for. For a group of people that likes to shit on welfare recipients so much, it's funny how much you like to clutch onto the straws of victim mentality when it favors you.

    Of course, it's much easier to simply point the finger at those brown or yellow "clans" instead of something abstract like legislation since you can't rally a base around an issue without creating an identifiable target with a recognizable face.

    It's like when people all blamed the bankers during Occupy Wallstreet or how people blame Apple/Google for legally avoiding taxes by not repatriating from Ireland, when the real issue is abstract and why they were allowed to do it in the first place.
    Last edited: May 11, 2019
    #49     May 11, 2019
  10. wrbtrader


    Its more than about if China wins or U.S. wins...

    The trade war also affected international supply chains. Based on the November numbers, $136 billion worth of imports and $29 billion of exports are either being lost or redirected on an annual basis in order to avoid the tariffs. Many U.S. companies responded to the higher prices of foreign competitors' goods by raising their own prices.


    #50     May 11, 2019