Who wins in a Trade War? China or US?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by smallfil, May 10, 2019.

Who wins in a Trade War?

  1. US wins by a mile! Not even close.

    10 vote(s)
  2. China wins by a mile! Not even close.

    4 vote(s)
  3. US wins by a hair, close but, not decisive enough

    7 vote(s)
  4. China wins by a hair, close but, not decisive enough

    1 vote(s)
  5. Do not know who wins. I am just an ignorant troll.

    4 vote(s)
  1. smallfil


    Exactly. US companies have already started moving their manufacturing to other Asian countries like Vietnam and Thailand to avoid the tariffs. I do not see how China would not be affected by it. Trade deal or no trade deal. The CEO of Go Pro was interviewed on Bloomberg and said he shifted his manufacturing to Mexico from China.
    #31     May 11, 2019
    nooby_mcnoob likes this.
  2. So what? Did I rant about immigrants? I think you completely misread my post by accident or wanted to misread it. I talked about how America should keep ILLEGAL immigrants out, lowly educated people, and mediocre H1B visa holders. No top university accepts lowly educated students into its Master programs but generally the best-educated ones. It does not matter where they are from, Spain, Germany, Nigeria, or Afghanistan. What I am strongly opposing is to immigrate, lowly educated people, illegals and those who come here abusing loopholes (such as those via H1B who end up underpaid and undercutting local equally well educated IT people, often through Indian H1B agencies that horde H1B visa and clog up the system so that even on the 2nd or 3rd day no other country's citizens can apply. The entire US immigration law and system is outdated and open for abuse for which it was not intended.

    I also did not rant against any Asian educated and talented immigrants. Where did you get this from? I am against giving those Asians with family ties in Canada or US a vast advantage when applying for visa. There is zero advantage to the American economy or society to grant a visa to someone with family ties vs someone without. Two candidates are almost never equally qualified in all other aspects, hence it should never come down to family ties.

    Please read my post carefully before you shoot with your leftwing propaganda bazooka at me.

    #32     May 11, 2019
  3. canoe


    indeed, he clearly doesn't understand the realities of the work visa/immigration process.

    "While highly trained and specialized researchers from Europe have a super hard time to obtain visa. Entire East Asian and Indian clans are let in regardless of skillset and experience just because they have an aunty or brother who already lives in Canada or the US."

    yeah this is a common talking point among conservatives/alt-right but the truth is:

    1) there isn't some systematic advantage given to East Asian and Indian work visa applicants versus their European counterparts during the work visa selection process. the # of work visas that can be given out are limited by congress every year and there's been a great surplus over the years. so they run a visa lottery every year. it is random.

    2) there are more East Asians and Indians that get selected in the lottery purely b/c by the law of probabilities, that tends to be the case when the majority of work visa applicants tend to be of Asian descent as opposed to European or African

    3) i find it highly odd (actually i don't, i know exactly why) that he used "highly trained and specialized researchers from Europe" to juxtapose their Asian counterparts, which he portrayed as "East Asian and Indian clans." while there are many highly trained and specialized researchers from Europe, there are way more highly trained and specialized researchers of Asian descent who attended college and grad school in the US as international students under a f1 visa. after graduating, they apply for jobs in the US and thus require h1b sponsorship. it is true that some companies try to take advantage of the lottery process by sponsoring unskilled labor from abroad (which is what he is alluding to) but that has subsided after the introduction of minimum salary requirements that companies must adhere to in order to apply for work visa sponsorship.

    this is in stark contrast to his simple reduction of the situation to "smart skilled Europeans getting displaced by dumb unskilled Asians"

    4) regarding his comments about Asians coming into the US in droves via family sponsorship, well, family sponsorship is literally available to any US citizen or green card holder, regardless of race. this isn't a European ethnicity vs Asian ethnicity thing. plus, unlike what he said, aunts actually can't sponsor anyone. like what he said, brothers certainly can but it's a ~15 year wait. it takes so long precisely b/c congress's limit for the amount of green cards that can be given under the sibling category is so small. if you think "highly trained and specialized researchers from Europe" are being affected by this, that's just your racism showing its head lol
    #33     May 11, 2019
    DaveV likes this.
  4. Perhaps you should not talk about issues you don't know much about?

    * The number of work visa (H1B) are limited each year and when sufficient applications are filed the window is closed. That is a fact. Also a fact is that 80% of all H1B visa are immediately filed/applied to by Indian H1B visa agencies before even a single employer expressed interest in a specific applicant. They just apply for thousands of visa and then "sell" allocated visa slots to the highest bidders in India and then, in turn, collect on the other side from the employers in the US for placement. That is a fact. This all happens within 1-2 days after the window opens. Also a fact. There is zero lottery when it comes to H1B, what are you talking about. Are you referring to the green card lottery?

    * I know of several Europeans who work for an American company and are in managerial positions and who cannot currently internally transfer within the same company to US headquarters because the companies are told that the EB1 transfer visa might be rejected merely on the grounds of the overall adverse climate regarding granting visa to outsiders. You have on one hand tons of Indian H1B visa holders getting into the US, often people with little more than some web coding skills from 2nd or 3rd tier universities and limited skill sets while American companies urgently need senior managerial staff to move back and forth within their company worldwide and cannot do such because of the overall adverse visa climate.

    * Why I stressed European managerial staff? Very simple. Let me give you a concrete example. Bloomberg. Almost all managerial staff in Bloomberg worldwide is either American or European. This has nothing whatsoever to do with racism or racial preferences. Bloomberg is one of the most liberal, racially diverse companies that I can think of, where a gay person can equally join the board as a black woman or an Asian guy. Yet, how come that almost all management in Hong Kong or Japan, for example, is American or European? Perhaps language issues, skill set, experience, ambition? Or per your definition, it must be racial discrimination? When those managerial staff need to move for a few years to the US they cannot because the company is advised by US immigration to refrain from moving staff to the US (that already happened during the Obama administration). Those senior managers are by majority not Africans or Asians and without going into further specifics I can guarantee you it is not because top management does not like their skin color.

    * I did not talk about F1 students. I was talking about experienced hires (and thought I made that pretty clear) hence talking about F1 students in this context is misleading.

    * Again there is no lottery involved when hiring anyone in the US, no work visa depends on a lottery. The only lottery the US offers is the green card lottery. You do not know your facts.

    * I referred to "clans" because there are tons of example where Indian managers in US strongly prefer to hire other Indians, even though equally qualified or even more highly qualified people of other races are in the pool. This does not happen often with managers of other ethnicities. Indian hiring managers often behave as if they have an obligation to bring in as many Indians as possible and staff their entire department with Indians. It has nothing whatsoever to do that an Indian IT professional is by definition more highly qualified than a Russian, Italian, Japanese, or Portuguese professional, yet how come IT firms in the US often end up with departments full of Indians? The inconvenient truth is that caucasian managers often go above and beyond to consider people of all ethnic backgrounds while that is simply not the case with Chinese or Indian hiring managers.

    * We talk about work visa, not green cards. Not spousal sponsorship. Work visa, my friend. Let's stick to this.

    #34     May 11, 2019
  5. There is a definite social advantage for people to have their families close
    #35     May 11, 2019
  6. canoe


    okay WOW you clearly haven't gone through the h1b process yourself.

    regarding your 1st paragraph:

    the window doesn't close when sufficient applications are filed. uscis is mandated to have the window open for the first 5 days of april. during that time they must accept all applications. if the # of applications exceeds the # of h1b visas that can be given out that year, the window is closed after the 5 days. if not, it remains open until it is filled (which almost never happens).

    then a lottery is run to select among all the applications that were accepted during that 5-day window.

    your constant repetitive use of "That is a fact" in your 1st paragraph already tells me you're full of it b/c obviously some of your "facts" aren't facts at all. your 80% statistic and your claim that there is no lottery is just flat-out wrong. absolutely wrong.

    regarding your 2nd paragraph:

    you're comparing apples to oranges. a EB1 is a completely different animal to a h1b. and no wonder the European managers that you knew had a difficult time getting a EB1. your claim about "because the companies are told that the EB1 transfer visa might be rejected merely on the grounds of the overall adverse climate regarding granting visa to outsiders" is what they told you but that's their excuse.

    the truth is EB1 is a special talent visa. it's reserved for extremely talented individuals: world class athletes, world class researches who have published in Nature, etc. oh and it absolutely favors those in technical fields like engineering/science/maths, areas that would have the most positive economic impact for the US. not those in managerial positions.

    those at the very top of their field/geniuses/etc. are the ones applying for EB1. the rest either apply for EB2 or h1b. the diff being EB2 requires those with years of industry experience or a graduate degree and a h1b can be applied with only a bachelor's. also a h1b is a nonimmigrant visa while a EB2 can lead to a green card. your claim about "tons" of indians with little web skills invading the US under the h1b scheme is hardly applicable any longer. in order to qualify for the h1b now, companies are required to offer the same salaries as their US counterparts and now the minimum is set at something like over $130,000 and it recently increased again. no one is paying indian script kiddies $130,000+ so please stop with the Fox News talking points b/c you're embarrassing yourself at this point.

    reg your 3rd paragraph:

    if you're talking about only experienced hires, then that's more applicable to the EB2 category, not the H1B category. but you were referring to H1B and f1 students make up a non-trivial % of applicants for the h1b category. you cannot talk about h1b without also incl f1 students since there are tons and tons of international students who graduate from top US schools (both undergrad and grad) who apply for the h1b after graduation

    reg your 4th paragraph:

    yes there is a lottery. no i'm not talking about the diversity lottery for green card. there is ABSOLUTELY a lottery for the h1b visa. NOT the EB1 and EB2 visas, which are alotted based on MERIT.

    reg your 5th paragraph:

    okay so now you're talking about strictly MANAGERS. might have been nice to include that in the first place.

    i would not be surprised if Indian-American managers are inclined to hire other Indian-Americans. just like white Jewish managers at the top banks groom their own white Jewish mentees. if you've ever hung out at the top of the ranks in investment banks, it's a good ol' white boy's club. my point is, yes, people are attracted to their own. this is a fact of life and whites or Europeans or Asians or Indians are no exception to this.

    and regarding your question about why IT firms are full of Indian managers, have you ever considered the fact that the majority of undergrad CS departments at the top schools for CS like stanford/mit/berkeley etc. are filled with Indian and Asian americans? the majority of entry-level hires at google/facebook/amazon etc. that the recruit from US AMERICAN schools are of Asian ethnicity. as they move up the ranks, it is natural for some of these to be promoted to managers. you clearly sound upset at the fact that there is an overrepresentation of Indian-americans in the IT managerial space.

    do you have a problem with that? i thought you were all about equal opportunity, not equal outcomes, like those silly stupid liberals? what about the overrepresentation of White-americans in the IB managerial space? am i ranting online about how that's unfair? no i am not. there are a myriad reasons why that may be the case, reasons that have or have nothing to do with racism. but you seem so keen to view the issue through filtered lenses that fit into your narrative.
    #36     May 11, 2019
    nooby_mcnoob likes this.
  7. Murdered...
    #37     May 11, 2019
  8. No one wants to produce low end products. But we need to put approximately 45 million people to work. They all can’t be working in service industry and flipping burgers competing with a robots
    #38     May 11, 2019
  9. * https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...nd-2017-uscis-report/articleshow/64072608.cms

    74% in 2016 and 2017, close to 80% expected for 2019/2020.

    * I never limited my post content to H1B. So yes I included EB1 in the subsequent discussion because you asked me why I specifically mentioned Europeans regarding part of my point I made. So, I present an example of several managers I know from personal experience and you say how it was explained was just an excuse. How strange. You can choose to believe whatever you like. But claiming they just made an excuse is simply not the truth.

    * Again you are misinformed on EB1. EB1 are ALSO for inter-company transfers of executives with managerial functions. Check your facts, you are simply wrong. https://workpermit.com/immigration/...nd-managers-and-outstanding-and-extraordinary

    * EB-1 for those with managerial responsibilities were used all the time to transfer managers inside an American company to the US office. That was part purpose of the EB-1. Don't believe me, then go to the source. You are simply incorrect.

    * You might be correct about changing requirements re H1B, under the Obama years H1B visa holders frequently were paid a lot less than 100k and often undercut equally qualified American residents. But that was/is exactly my point that with Trump a lot is changing to the better regarding immigration policies. Unfortunately, the most qualified and talented who are urgently needed by US Corporations to be further trained in the US before sent back abroad are also impacted by the adverse visa and immigration climate.

    * If you refer to the lottery in case more H1B applications were filed in the first 5 days of April than the visa cap then I give that to you and you seem to be correct and I was incorrect. I can admit when proven wrong. On most other points I believe you are incorrect, however.

    * Incorrect: If you ever worked in the front office of an investment bank in New York on the trading floor you would have noticed that most are of incredibly diverse backgrounds and that for years now. Long gone are the days of white shoe IBanking. But this is not the case today in IT departments, even at those very same banks. They are full of Indians when there are Indian hiring managers and not full of Indians when the hiring manager is not Indian. Always? No, but more often than not.

    * No I have not considered that top grad school programs other than pure IT are accepting Indians by majority because that is not true. In my quant program at CMU there were 3 Indians in my class out of 60. A lot Chinese though. Same with most other quant programs at other top schools I had contacts to. And you are again referring to undergrads, I talked from the very beginning about EXPERIENCED/SKILLED workers who look to seek work authorizations in the US, I was not referring at all to some undergrad kids.

    Sure, I am all for equal opportunities. But the playing field should be level for all. Do you deny that points are given to some with certain family ties (and yes I used hyperbole re the specific types of ties) in the US and Canada? That is not an equal opportunity because not a single employer gives a damn whether I have family in the US or Canada or not. He cares about my performance and work ethics. Do you also deny that work ethics and overall moral and ethical standards in Europe are different from the ones in India or China? Those are, however, metrics that employers do care about, not family ties.

    Last edited: May 11, 2019
    #39     May 11, 2019
  10. I 100% concur with you, this is a big problem and we should solve that before we jump to automate the hell out of every last process in every industry. But I doubt the best solution will be to send our kids back into the coal mines and manufacture aluminum or sew garments.

    #40     May 11, 2019