Who wins in a Trade War? China or US?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by smallfil, May 10, 2019.

Who wins in a Trade War?

  1. US wins by a mile! Not even close.

    10 vote(s)
  2. China wins by a mile! Not even close.

    4 vote(s)
  3. US wins by a hair, close but, not decisive enough

    7 vote(s)
  4. China wins by a hair, close but, not decisive enough

    1 vote(s)
  5. Do not know who wins. I am just an ignorant troll.

    4 vote(s)
  1. smallfil


    #11     May 11, 2019
  2. smallfil


    #12     May 11, 2019
  3. smallfil


    The economic change I was talking about was the shift in sourcing by US businesses to other Asian countries producing the same products as China. Cost matters for businesses and Chinese goods with tariffs will be more costly. Now, US businesses with manufacturing in China has also, switched to other Asian countries like Vietnam and Thailand to produce their products. That way, they do not have to pay any tariffs on it! On Bloomberg this afternoon, the CEO of Go Pro said he moved his manufacturing to Mexico instead, of China. Now, whether we get a fair trade deal or not, the US tariffs on Chinese goods have forced the hand of US businesses and all detrimental to the Chinese economy and businesses. It is quite possible that the US does not get a fair trade deal with China. In that case, President Trump will just let the tariffs on Chinese goods continue to inflict huge damage to the Chinese economy. The US will win by default because the Chinese economy will be damaged beyond repair! Read the above article on what the Chinese business owners are actually saying!
    #13     May 11, 2019
  4. DaveV


    Vietnam, Bay of Pigs, Iraq, Afghanistan. What do they all have in common? These were all places that America with its superior resources was supposed to score easy victories. And in all of them, America failed to secure a clear cut victory. Why? Because in each case America failed to account for the resolve of the opponent. China seems to be quite willing to suffer for as long as it takes to get their way. Furthermore China does have one advantage - they don't have to worry about politics and whether their voters are suffering from the sanctions.

    America should win in the end, but I wouldn't bet on it. Sometime the tortoise does beat the hare.
    #14     May 11, 2019
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  5. Of course will money in a world of greed always ultimately prevail, the capitalist over the socialist. The one system that convinces all the dumb folks that they can score it big if they just follow the prescribed money ladder. The system that sells shovels to the desperate and promises them that 1 in a million finds the incredible nugget. That is appealing to mostly stupid people because who does not love the from rags to riches story.

    But you make a very interesting and imo valid point, the resolve and that this Chinese resolve is underestimated in America. Nothing hurts the Chinese man more than a lost face. To avoid that, great suffering can be taken upon.

    #15     May 11, 2019
  6. maxinger


    No idea who will win.
    But one think for sure; traders sure win.
    #16     May 11, 2019
  7. smallfil


    Traders will not lack of trading opportunities which would be plentiful. Hopefully, most of us will be able to take advantage of those opportunities when they come up!
    #17     May 11, 2019
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  8. canoe


    so i hate trump but is anyone else glad trump is president instead of hillary? i am certain a democratic administration would have pandered to chinese demands.

    the hot-button issue of china had to be dealt with one way or another and although it's already late, it's best to deal with china before china gets too big and the US's leverage is only going to decrease with time.

    i have no issue with china becoming an economic superpower as long as they are a democracy and adopt free market economic policies. but they are not and they never will. it is in their culture and dna to believe that the end justifies whatever means, with the end = restoring the former glory of China and the Chinese people. those who have studied Chinese history or have directly interacted with the Chinese at a deep level know what i am talking about is not hyperbole.

    i don't think enough westerners understand this and the Chinese have constantly taken advantage of the West's willingness to play by the rules in order to become the next superpower. but the world is better off without an economic and military superpower that is ruled by an iron-fist dictatorship with nuclear capabilities.

    then here comes trump, who is an extremely petty man and a sore loser. he hates nothing more than losing and he's going to do whatever it takes to get his way with china. traders this past week would have realized trump rigged the markets this past week with exceptionally-timed tweets (timing was way too precise to be merely coincidental) post-market, propping up the US markets during regular hours and just enough to tank the Chinese markets during their's. sure it's illegal as fuck but just from this, you can sense trump will stop at nothing to get what he wants. i have no idea who's going to win eventually but i sure am glad we finally have a guy in the white house who's willing to play dirty to push back against China, which has done nothing but play dirty and take advantage of our generosity and good-will for decades.
    #18     May 11, 2019
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  9. JSOP


    US will win temporarily but the people of both countries will lose. Once China transitions completely to a locally supported economy, China will win.
    #19     May 11, 2019
    GRULSTMRNN likes this.
  10. China should never been allowed to take over world manufacturing. Tariffs are used to even out the playing field. This is long overdue. This happen to japan and germany long ago, that's why toyota, honda, mercedes, bmw have manufacturing plants in major markets; to avoid and reduce tariffs. Now it's china's turn.
    #20     May 11, 2019