Who wins in a Trade War? China or US?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by smallfil, May 10, 2019.

Who wins in a Trade War?

  1. US wins by a mile! Not even close.

    10 vote(s)
    40.0%
  2. China wins by a mile! Not even close.

    4 vote(s)
    16.0%
  3. US wins by a hair, close but, not decisive enough

    6 vote(s)
    24.0%
  4. China wins by a hair, close but, not decisive enough

    1 vote(s)
    4.0%
  5. Do not know who wins. I am just an ignorant troll.

    4 vote(s)
    16.0%
  1. smallfil

    smallfil

    Some ET posters believe China will beat the US in a Trade War and beat the US silly. Do you agree with that view or not? This is a poll so, go ahead and vote. I will add articles later on. That is so as not to influence your choice.
     
  2. IAS_LLC

    IAS_LLC

    Both lose, but the U.S has the buying power, thus the upper hand
     
  3. Here4money

    Here4money

     
  4. smallfil

    smallfil

    The US or China is going to win. Will there be pain on both sides? That is a given. The economic structure resulting from the trade war will determine the winner. A fair trade deal would be the best outcome for both countries. However, that is not likely to happen now. Not anytime soon anyways.
     
  5. What is the definition of winning here? A different trade regime will have winners and losers within both countries. The US economy will probably take less of a hit to GDP than China so on that US would win. In terms of geopolitics, I hear talk about trying to contain China, and the trade war will advance this agenda in the short term.. long term that ship pretty much sailed 30 years ago. All IMHO of course.
     
  6. smallfil

    smallfil

    China is ruled by communists and Xi Ping is President for life if I read it correctly. That is not likely, to change anytime soon. Winning in my opinion for the US is getting a fair trade deal. For China, not signing a fair trade deal and keeping the status quo. I think one way or the other, without a trade deal or with a trade deal, there is going to be a huge economic change that will affect both the US and China. It will however, affect China more disproportionately, than the US! Things are moving right now although, a lot of people do not see it yet! Just my 2 cents.
     
    cruisecontrol likes this.
  7. Don't know who wins... But us citizens lose.. Period.
     
  8. China will lose. There is no outcome where the US economy has a protracted suffering without China while the reverse is not true.
     
  9. Even given the fact that the US is a smaller trading partner with China than the EU is with China? US trade with China makes up "only" around 20% of all global trade with China.

    Mostly consumers on both ends will lose short term but long term such escalations are necessary for each nation to re-align its trade with its political and economic goals.

     
    Last edited: May 10, 2019
    d08 likes this.
  10. themickey

    themickey

    US will win.
    Americans are clever, democracy works in your favor.
    China loses, it believes in lucky numbers, gambling, feng shui, dictatorships where the elite will one day screw the haves and the have nots.
     
    #10     May 10, 2019
    volpri, traderslair and IAS_LLC like this.