I predict Friday (tomorrow 5/28) we should witness a sell off in US equity market given the fact that that we will have a long weekend and Euro financial problems will weigh in the US market. Today's bad GDP news and its contrarian effect on the market (market is up over 0.7% now 2:42PM Thursday) also justifies a selloff on Friday. Personally I predict a lower consumer sentiment report on Friday which will drag the market down. today's close should be interesting too.
Just for Laughs.... Market will open Higher even on the negative news we will git 12510 on the DOW, later we will close with 50+ points. Can't see more than 2 days into the future on my magic balls.
I cannot predict the market 100%. Noone can but we all can have opinions. I usually play;/trade on what other people would act in the market and my statements were reflecting just that. Except mutual fund managers and long term investors, I believe it is nice to sleep on cash in long weekends specially this one.
Not related to this top but we all hear the restaurants sales are up like 3% compared to the same quarter last year. We may consider that a growth but look at the details. We all know that on the average the restaurants have increased their menu prices by 20% in the last year. My food in Panera now costs $11.5 compared to $8 last year. Let's assume that a restuant had 10 customer and each spent $10 in that quarter. The revenue would be $100. Now the same food would cost 10 x $12=$120. The restaunat's revenue goes up by 3% so the sales are $103. $103/12= 8.5 customer That means that the restaurant lost 15% of the customers. Scary huh?
Well, we've been for weeks now in a pretty risk-averse climate going by option sentiment, sentiment surveys and a couple of other things. Every time some news comes out regarding greek the panics are quick but relatively shallow and are always bought back to the starting point. However we are also in a light negative trend which has been causing some declines. Given the amount of support which the markets have tried to break many times now for almost a month without significant declines (marginal new lows followed by a marginally lower high) combined with the negative sentiment can't really convince me that we are going much lower. By the way the market historically does pretty well around memorial day (though not on the first day after)
There will be no sell off on 5/28 because markets will be closed on Saturday (5/28). As for Firday it will be low volume day and nothing is going to happen because everybody is already packing up for the long weekend.
Typically MM's want to keep the public in over the weekend (and wack them gap down Monday morning). Typically the day before a holiday has an upward bias. New lows hit 77 today. One day does not a trend make. Nevertheless, from a variety of indications mister market is starting to roll over. But....."he" generally tries to fool or fake the most people.
Funny how no one in this thread has bothered to cite (easily obtainable) historical surveys of market behavior in the days leading up to, and following, Memorial Day.