It very well could rally. There's just no way tot know what's happening next. To me that suggest Monday may well start of with a whimper, since so many are expecting a bang, one way or the other.
ET is overwhelming finished and has been since around 2007-08. Markets declining 9 days in a row is not an indication of "everybody being short" FWIW. It's an indication that everyone was long ahead of the much anticipated 3-5% rally on news of the debt ceiling hike.
thestreet.com poll: 1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading? Bullish 37.4% 248 votes Bearish 49.01% 325 votes Neutral 13.57% 90 votes While it is clearly bearish, I have seen it even more bearish before several times in the last ~ year (from my memory). do we have? a. too many bears = a good contrarian sign? or b. not enough bears given the amount of bad news and the giant 2 week sell-off?
thestreet.com polls around recent bottoms: June 04 2011 Bullish 34.28% 84 votes Bearish 51.02% 125 votes Neutral 14.69% 36 votes June 12 2011 Bullish 29.25% 79 votes Bearish 60.37% 163 votes Neutral 10.37% 28 votes March 20 2011 (rebound was on the way) Bullish 45.1% 175 votes Bearish 36.34% 141 votes Neutral 18.55% 72 votes Nov 14 2010 Bullish 43.83% 270 votes Bearish 44.96% 277 votes Neutral 11.2% 69 votes
Here was the ET Poll in the days leading up to the debt ceiling debate... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=224151 84 voted for a rally 20 voted for a decline. Shortly thereafter, we had our first 9 day decline in 30+ years. Hey, who knows how the crowd is positioned now.
I personally am just bias as am stuck holding a stupid quite big long trade on the equity Juniper! :/ And so just want the Dow (and all of market groups including juniper) to rocket up so i can ditch this trade for break even/small profit, and then let the dow crash down to the 8,000s before i buy hard and hold for the bounce to 9,500...
All the major rating agencies are US based AND biased. Well they should have downgraded the US years ago but patriotism. nationalism and fear of repercussions have kept the ratings artificially high for years. It might inject some reality into those clowns in Washington if they portrayed the true picture. As it is the S&P have cracked under the pressure with the rest to follow as soon as they have to.
We should bounce Monday because volume was very high last week and there's a nice Doji on the daily s+p index.