The fast movement we saw upward on Friday afternoon was characteristic of a "Price shock." That's when a few large accounts make sizeable purchases and there are no longer enough sellers to absorb the purchases. The fact that it happened means that they (the large accounts) see something we don't see, and that we should all pay attention. After all, there's a reason the manage large accounts. What this means to me is that we're heading down one more time on Monday, and probably on much lower volume than we've seen these last few days. After that there will be some form of upward movmenet. Whether it's just a counter-trend to what happened the last few weeks, or whether it heads for a new high, I don't know. But I don't think Monday will be up. Maybe Wednesday or even Tuesday, but not Monday. As a general rule, movements like that require at least 1 price shock before they reverse.
I wanna say yes. IMO, the best chance is a gap down Sunday night and then a large rally at 9:30 AM EST. Could also see this thing just drop another 1,000 points or so. You gotta have some real balls or cash flow to step in here. GL to you all.
Priced in already. Not much of an event anyway. The statement was more a comment on the DC disarray over the debt ceiling than anything else. Underneath it all, both the ADP and BLS numbers showed better than expected employment, and the BLS revised prior month numbers up on top of that. The weak dollar will do that: help out US-based companies. From that POV, if the S&P downgrade gives a bit of a kick to the dollar trend, it'll actually help both the economy and the market, perversely enough. On top of that, it seems that voices in China calling for a floating remnimbi are becoming louder because of this downgrade. That would be very good indeed for the global economy, while helping out China with their inflation problem.
check out TLT weekly volume! why is it higher than any time in 2008? is TLT now the vehicle of choice for bond buyers? is the total bond volume traded really the highest ever? with rumors of S&P downgrade in full swing, who was buying bonds last week? why were they buying? AA+ does not scare anybody away from Bonds, that's for sure.
What was it 85-90% believed the market would rally 2-3% after the raising of the debt ceiling a few weeks back? This is just like the sentiment we saw 4 years ago. The bigger the decline, the more bullish guys get. Most of the time guys would get long after the big reversal days higher believing that the bottom was in. A few days later those lows would be taken out. We even took out the 200 day MA, but it seems that doesn't matter either to those arguing in favor of the bull side.
The 200 day MA has been taken many times before, it does not mean much except for equities being cheap when price is below it. FoN
ET is overwhelming short, not long. Not sure where you are getting this everyone is bullish from. I've been watching the news all weekend and every channel is calling for the end of the world as we know it. They are telling everyone to sell everything and hide under the bed. I'm not bullish either btw. I'm an options trader. I call what I see. The VIX tripled from 15 to 40. The ISEE hit the lowest reading every recorded at 31. Volumes shattered what we had in 2008. Did we have a capitulation? Probably. Was that the absolute low? Who knows and I don't care. I would hate to be long vol right now and that is what a short is synthetically at this point.