It's not a discussion for me and maybe it isn't a discussion for you, than fair enough. But the markets are 100% fractal for me as I've seen it. The reason people think smaller time frames are less stable, accurate, predictable whatever language you want to use is because they lack the proper tools to effectively measure it and / or the time frame moves too fast for their brains to process therefore they come to the conclusion it must not be true. It's akin to people who swear you can't be a profitable day trader, just because it's pretty rare and difficult doesn't mean it isn't true. Surely you can appreciate that?
Tricky Subject!! Day Trading isn't possible, I know been trying for years and failing miserably LOL, defo just a too fast brain switches off like a rabbit in the car headlights mind.
%% I can see many times it is 100% fractal. But in a practical sense; 55% of the week patterns almost better than as daily, counting slippage. With a skilled day-trader, however; they could even be better. I don't think any timeframe is predictable, even though some times @ noon Mondays or noon Fridays, could use some fractions.............................................
Don't understand at all.... and slippage? I am not personally trading anywhere near enough contracts to get slippage.... you can trade 100 lots on ES with and 30 on NQ with little concern of slippage most of the time. I am also not looking to scalp (although I will if that's all the market is going to give me). I am looking to catch larger moves at least 2x atr on particularly chart and more if the opportunity presents itself. So, even if I am using market orders instead of limit and get slippage it's not going to have a vast effect on my profitability.
%% OK Trdes; my slippage comments dont apply 100% on liquid ETfs. $100 area or $300 has had no slippage sometimes or ES market orders. But 2 out of the 3 examples I just used pay dividends............................................................................................... Im not counting slippage on overnight trades/ inevstments, ' cause that's mostly positive slippage.
Not and issue for you then, slippage more intraday / scalp trader ( Me, slippage ruins my days frequently )
%% I've had more slippage on stuff trade/investing 1 million shares per day. Total average day volume , not my trade size LOL. But its worth it; not that I would limit my trading to that hi slippage stuff...........................................................................................ES is one off the gold standards in non slippage, even with market orders ,not that it pays dividends= it does not.
I trade DAX and NQ and YM when I want to just give my money away, YM news 50pts instantly hurt to much. Interesting, passed on ES high spread, not much movement ( just use 3x's Lot size to compare to NQ, spread might be slightly lower ), 95% NQ follower, but ES doesn't have Spikes, comparing NQ chart and Spikes to ES and nothing, no SL hit needlessly at a bad price. Hmmmmm, I'll watch tomorrow and might have to jump ship, thanks!!
I find NQ much easier to day trade, of course with NQ you will lose or make roughly 30% more than trading ES on a 1 to 1 ratio. But NQ will normally give you more outs than ES in my experience (if your style / strategy isn't just a single entry with set stop and profit target). Trading is very difficult, but also people make it more mysterious and harder than it has to be. There's so much misinformation and negativity out there that it's ridiculous. Even traders way better than me give information that is incorrect and damaging, but people assume because they are profitable that they must be correct. There's so many different ways and styles to pull money out of the markets. It's funny though some of the same people that claim you can't predict the markets, tell you to use a stop and set profit target..... if that is consistently profitable than it proves the market is predictable to some point. All trading is about is can you get your contract from point A to point B without it going to C. You can do that by having extreme market knowledge and great tools, you can do that by having large size and pushing the market around, you can do that by having a simple strategy that you just repeat over and over knowing that if you apply it 100 times you will come out profitable. You can even have a strategy where you average down (knowing if market doesn't hold here it's going to go down one more deviation) This allows you to pre-plan your averaging because you know if market moves down X amount on this time frame it normally moves up to Y, but if that doesn't happen it will likely go down to the next deviation and so on.
Good point, Trdes. There is a reason why they name it ''weather forcasting'' + not weather prediction?? If you really could predict, then that proves you could own then world, since its '' predictable to some point??'' Dont think of that as negative,simply because people are interested in profits + correct english usage. Thanks