I would distinguish between the pre-electronic trading era and the current era where the markets are indeed global. Late 1997 is when the e-mini's began trading. Here are the post-1997 extremes in my view: 2008: 10 2004-2006: 1 And the last two years: 2011: 4 2012: 3 Outlook for 2013: Using the S&P 500 as the proxy, the stock market is centering near the upper limit formed by the last two bull market peaks. 2013 will be quite unlike 2012 and 2011.
I agree 100% The years prior to 1998 - 2000 when the online trading / electonic era truly began is ancient history. Of course there were years of no-range sessions back then... but index price levels were likewise a fraction of today. Also, trader participation was fractional to the modern era peak which crested a few years ago. 2005 - 2006 was the lowest range & volatility anyone had seen in modern trading era. It was followd by Feb 2007 - mid 2009 period of high volatlity. Perhaps this cycle will unfold somewhat the same. Current markets ar tradable, just not bountiful. You have to pick your spots, accept smaller gains per position, scratch out of more trades in prolongued sideways congestion and get the most out of morning sessions because afternoons tend to dry & die right out. Periods of high volatility see much more action in the afternoons than mornings. Trading is just like farming for a living. In 2012 grain prices wre sky high but many if ot most veteran farmers had very poor profit years. It had nothing to do with thier personal skill levels or equipment or capital funding. It was solely due to growing conditions being poor to terrible inside the historical drought. The best, most skilled farmets in this country could only sit by and watch their crops stand still in the fields, no growth (market movement) because of no rain (volume and volatility) But 2012 is now gone, and 2013 offers a brand new opportunity for all
ask any of the former big-guns here from this site how 2012 graded out for them. you know all the big alias names, you've been here long enough for that. report back to us how many had personal record highs or even nearly high personal profits this year ** market conditions always have and always will vary widely. only the newbs and the pretenders believe every year is the same and every trader can - should make more money than year past in hockey-stick curved ascent in reality, big pros and fund managers performance varies with prevailing market conditions. that is reality... whether anyone else likes it or accepts it as the fact that it is, or not
International Monetary Fund - 1944 Eurodollars overtook CDs as a short term market in the 1980s Crude Oil Futures - 1983 European Central Bank - 1998 Gold futures seems to have been around forever. Therefore, I don't use the electronic trading era involving the Emini futures as the benchmark for globalization involving the markets for traders. I saw markets globalization in the early 1990's involving other futures trading instruments that were benchmarks although in reality it had occurred prior to such. Yet, when globalization of the markets became well known to the typical mom & pop investors via the start of the electronic trading era...institutional traders were already taking advantage of such long before the electronic era when the "small trader" showed up to the game via the electronic era due to the exchanges (e.g. CME) creating new trading instruments for "small traders"...birth of the Emini Futures and many other exchanges around the world began to make mini futures products along with brokers making these trading instruments from other countries available to "small trader" clients. Thus, globalization of the markets was a well known fact to institutions and traders long before the electronic era but just not on the radar of those with small trading accounts until the electronic era. As a trader, I really don't care about market direction except for the duration I'm in a trade. Yet, I do care a lot about volatility because I use a volatility base trading method. There are many other different trading instruments in the world to trade (thanks to globalization of the markets) that have nice volatility when my favorite trading instruments lack volatility. That's the great thing about volatility...it doesn't go up or down for every trading instruments in the world "at the same time" even though markets are globalized. Therefore, if someone say that trading sucks or the markets are in ruins...that's someone that's married to their trading instrument and unwilling to adapt via switching to different trading instrument that's more suitable for trading. My outlook for the next several years are poor volatility (low volatility that's in a tight trading range) IF issues involving global economies remain the same or similar. Yeah, we'll have a week here and there of volatility spikes but nothing that will change the overall volatility for the year. Obviously I want to be wrong due to the fact I want good volatility in the markets in general...more trade opportunities for us retail traders without putting our favorite trading instruments on the shelf while trading other markets.
we need more crappy days like this -- like another 200 maybe. I lucked out - long AAPL + NDX + SPY [and even AMZN pos. is up a lot so far - go figure] Tomorrow it will all be gone [unless I get lucky again.] I now totally get "better to be lucky than smart! Pass the dice, please
agreed. I never understood the market/symbol addicts such as many ES traders feel it is unmanly and beneath them to trade something else... as if ES is the only viable market on earth. At this stage of my career, I'm content to trade CL and NQ during optimal sessions. If one or both are flapjacks flat, no big deal. If I bank well in one or both thru the morning, a few of those per week makes the month. Rather than chase global markets and stay glued to screens around the clock, I'm opting to personally trade smarter instead of harder. I no longer trade FOMC sessions such as today. Haven't even pulled up charts, no idea what the markets have all done or not since yesterday. I no longer trade options expiry sessions, rollover sessions, holiday sessions or any other low-odds days. Stick with the optimal days, trade the optimal setups, cut losses short, let profits run greater than losses. That, and walk away to enjoy living and life away from charts and screens at every opportunity given.
true,but if we use vegas as an example,if there slots are paying back 95%,they stay in biz if they drop that to 90%,people stop coming,going on memory but read a study about this a few years back,if wall street were a casino, they have gotten very greedy and are just grinding a lot of customers into dust,as far as where has the smart money gone,i think its gone to developing 3rd world economies..emerging markets