Looking at the attached chart, who can recall policy/fiscal/other events that may have caused this breakout?
Sorry, screen capture quality is pretty rank. Looking at the Dec '94/Jan'95 period on the S&P 500, significant and lasting break from previous trendline
The cause of this was fundamental. After 40 years the House of representatives went over to the Republicans 1/20/95 The House is important because they control the budget process. Newt Gringrich and the Contract with America was a plan to balance the budget and more importantly it was a check on the leftist and reckless Clinton Whitehouse to that date. Of course, in 5 years Gringrich was successful and politically forced Clinton to the middle and together they balanced the budget.
So, on election of a conservative congress, the market anticipates forthcoming reforms. I could see that. I also notice this break is within 1 yr of the boomer generation average demographic age of 40; any revisions to investment (401k, capital gains, etc...) policy expected or passed at this time?
sure do.made a ton of money that year. jan and feb were slow.Sometime in march they took off.one of my best years ever. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2242410#post2242410
My chart shows a rally in treasury note futures prices and likely a reduction in USA interest rates about year 1995. I have futures charts that show a bull market in grains and cotton during 1995, maybe there was a drought.
Mexico financial crisis. $50 billion flowed into Mexico. U.S. banks were no longer in danger of collapsing as a result.
Kobe earthquake in Japan, causing Nick Leeson to destroy Barings. This would have caused the spike in treasuries.