In my opinion, none of these are factors. HFT simply doesn't matter if a trader is capturing 30 point ES moves, not scalping for 2 ticks. The volatility over the past 6 months since August has been insane, and the opportunity is there as long as price is moving, which it is. How to capitalize on that opportunity is the difficult part.
It seems like every type of market crash...wipes out a new fleet of so-called traders -- it's like a tidal wave where only the best of the best, solid one's survive.
Oh, and I also think that @lawrence-lugar is killing it cause he seems to know what he is doing based on what he posts. Lets see if he bites and talks some more.
Easy answer is the markets itself. The first big change I saw was the dot.com collapse and I remember seeing big changes in the numbers posted here when that happen. The next big change was the decimalization and I remember some of those you listed were complaining heavily about such. Then came the algos (HFT) and the 2008 - 2009 financial crisis...all of that just kind'uv caused many traders to leave ET although I'm not really sure if they've actually stopped trading. For example, Lescor seem to just "retire" sort'uv speak from trading after having that big custom house built...someone else went OPM...another became an institutional trader and others just vanished...not really any goodbyes unless they did such privately. Yet, I do remember a few spending an unusual amount of time down in the PR and chit chat threads in a lot of heated debates. Not sure if that environment down there in ET's dungeon kind'uv burnt them out about forums. They point I wanted to say and failed to say is that back then the posting environment was different. People weren't being challenge and attacked like they are in ETs current environment. Thus, people volunteer their brokerage statements, real time calls without being asked to do such and the threads (e.g. PnL threads) seem to be more moderated. Today, someone starts a thread...it quickly turns into a bitchfest before any moderating shows up and then after certain folks are warned...they continue elsewhere and nothing is done about it. Also, in my opinion, people tend to ignore the jerks a lot better than folks today. Regardless, nobody should have to prove anything at this forum because in my opinion...if such ever becomes a requirement...it must be applicable to EVERYONE that joins this forum. Anyways, like I said, there were several journals a few years back where folks posted brokerage statements and even real-time +Google sharing of themselves while trading in real-time...there was very little to no interest. It just seem to me if its a heated debate...suddenly people want to see proof but if you're not part of any heated debate...nobody cares and you really go unnoticed.
A lot of those guys were fund traders or hedge fund managers. I remember that issue confusing the heck out of me because I originally thought it was going to be a list of "retail traders" when in fact it was a list of high capital professional traders. So yeah, most of those guys are still around (e.g. Steve Cohen) and there's a recent thread (last year) devoted to them. These people were (still are) managing billions of dollars...not the type of trader that retail traders would typically wanting to know about unless the retail trader wants to become a fund manager. I think you'll get a better gauge of retail traders today via Dukascopy although more orientated towards traders outside of the U.S. Also, the old active trader magazine had a few issues devoted to top retail traders but that magazine is no longer in circulation just like the expired Traders Monthly magazine...economics for these magazines changed dramatically after the 2008 - 2009 financial crisis.
A bunch of the guys who made 10-50m were big traders at UBS, goldman, morgan stanley and deustche. Some were only in their late 20s, is that whole world gone now post volcker ?
I agree that it should be applicable to everyone. Just the other week, I remember seeing a post by a member who has been both good in terms of sharing info, and also seeking info. I can't recall his exact name, but he was a young lad who wanted to get into prop or institution, or something to do with quants or something like this. Anyway, after months of posting, he casually mentioned that he doesn't actually trade. I was floored. I guess he never did misrepresent himself, but in a way, based on the posts he made and the advice he offered, it seemed like he was speaking from experience. I think it would be an eye opener if Baron could somehow collect stats on people who sign up. Of course there would be no way to do this with any ounce of credibility, but I'm sure that guys who are the most vocal about their trades are often the guys who are barely actually trading a live account. The other point is that when you cross the line, whatever that line might be, of either critiquing someone else's trades, or offering advice on how to trade or where to look for a trade, or start to point out what someone else is doing wrong, you should be opened up to scrutiny yourself. Its just like with the legal system. If you're accused and you're gonna put yourself on the stand to say your version of events, you open yourself up to cross-examination. I would like to play devil's advocate here and wonder if perhaps much of what was shared before was in fact the truth. Just because folks were more open and shared more "proof" doesn't exactly mean that any of this proof was of any more substance than what is being shown today. Mind you, today, we have absolutely zero proof, nothing, not an ounce. About all that a member can do is to first read past posts of a member to see if they at least sound like they know what they are talking about, and then hope to get wind of some real time calls they can follow to see if there is any chance of an edge via the trades mentioned. Obviously this is highly imperfect, but its about all any member here has to go on. And I know that you have said in the past what ET is and what ET isn't, but in my opinion, if we really reduce ET down to simply a chit chat site about trading, without it actually being a site for traders exchanging ideas, then there really isn't much point to it. If I wanted to learn how to bake and signed up on elitebaker.com, I would hope to come across some recipes that I could try, some pictures of actual cakes that were baked, members sharing tips on great baking pans, etc. If the general notion was that nobody on elitebaker.com actually talked about baking, I might as well just watch tv.