Who is more profitable?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ninZa.co, Aug 20, 2023.

Who is more profitable?

  1. Short term trading (Shorter time frames, scalping)

    42.9%
  2. Long term trading (Longer time frames, Swing trading)

    39.3%
  3. Investing (Warren Buffet style)

    17.9%
  1. virtusa

    virtusa

    According to Baron: yes.
    SL is not needed. Just don't sell and you have no loss.
    :D
     
    #21     Aug 21, 2023
    Goldlover likes this.
  2. Redneck

    Redneck


    Try convincing all the failed / struggling day traders

    This business is not a one solution fits all - never has been

    Nor is it meant for everyone - of that I am also convinced (give a man a fork - most will stab themselves to death)


    RN
     
    #22     Aug 21, 2023
    duckruck likes this.
  3. Often, profitability and happiness are interconnected.
     
    #23     Aug 22, 2023
  4. virtusa

    virtusa

    Who is profitable is always happy.
    Who is happy is not always profitable.
     
    #24     Aug 22, 2023
  5. Are you asking what's most profitable in theory or in practice?

    LOL. :)
     
    #25     Aug 22, 2023
    duckruck likes this.
  6. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    That is not true. Happiness can depend on health for example and if you are depressed, no matter your profit ratio, you won't be happy.

    I would rather be happy than profitable, after all isn't the goal of profits to make you happy?
     
    #26     Aug 22, 2023
  7. Redneck

    Redneck



    A very dangerous mindset - find a pet or hobby instead..., or use some of those hard earned profits to feed / clothe the less fortunate


    Trading..., and all aspect thereof - are simply business..., never allow it/ them to become personal

    Detached and objective

    RN


     
    #27     Aug 22, 2023
    SunTrader likes this.
  8. Since I like numbers, let's take a closer look.

    1) Buy and hold so far this year using e-mini S&P 500 futures which trades at $50 per point. Let's assume a $15K account (maintenance margin at CME is $ 11.200).

    Long the Open on the 3rd of January at 3881,00. Using today's closing price of 4399,75, that's a net gain of 4399,75 - 3881,00 = 518,75 points x 50 = $ 25 937,50. Excluding costs.

    In % = (25 937,50 - 15 000) / 15 000 = 73 %.

    2) Day trading

    If we sum up the daily RTH ranges so far this year that comes out at 7333,75 points with an average RTH range of 46 points over 159 trading days.

    That's a multiple of 7333,75 / 518,75 = 14. So, the sum of the daily ranges exceed the net trend by a factor of 14. Clearly, there's a lot more points on offer.

    There's been some claims about extracting 2-3 x the daily range, but let's not be that ambitious.

    Let's say you can capture half the daily range consistently.

    That's an average daily gain of 23 points / $1150 per contract.

    Without compounding - that's a gain of $1150 x 159 = $182 850. I won't do the math, but clearly hugely more profitable than buy and hold.

    With compounding (let's assume $15 000 per contract and add one contract per each new $15 000 in your account, but stop at 100 contracts). Initially, progress is modest, but eventually snowballs due to the compounding effect:


    upload_2023-8-22_22-46-8.png


    By the end of day 159 you have $11 740 400 in your account.

    Hell, even a modest 5 points per day consistently will take you far.

    upload_2023-8-22_22-49-38.png


    Now, this is of course all theoretical and idealized which is the reason I asked if the question was which is most profitable in theory or in practice.

    In practice, I'm sure buy and hold is more profitable for 99 % of would-be traders as most would-be traders would end the year with a net loss.

    It also shows clearly that anyone who have any kind of edge in the market would be wise to monetize that, instead of teaching (selling courses) or otherwise being a vendor (selling indicators, systems, etc.). :)
     
    #28     Aug 22, 2023
    tomas262 and TheMordy like this.
  9. Overnight

    Overnight

    Until last year happens.
     
    #29     Aug 22, 2023
    ironchef likes this.
  10. DevBru

    DevBru

    I was holding before last year happened and was in profit all the time, so not really sure what this must mean, still holding today.

    Buying and holding isn't something you do for a year or 2, but for many many years. Sure you can enter at the top and be unlucky, but that's why i always wait for a minimum % retracement in the markets before entering. But even someone who entered near the high of 2022 is now almost break even, probably still beter than 90% of traders out there and over time it is nearly guaranteed that profit will come (in a very well diversified portfolio or index).

    2022 and 2020 were the best opportunities for buy and hold we had in a long time, rule 1 is don't over pay.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2023
    #30     Aug 22, 2023