The systems on Wealth Lab, as one of the best developers for that platform in the country, have a few fatal flaws. Earlier versions would find the optimal set of values for the system on any stock you clicked on. You would find different values for every stock, and, in the end, you'd have a massively curve fitted system that would trick you into thinking that it had predictive value. It doesn't, no more going forward than watching one talking head on TV would. The biggest flaw in the WL systems is that they allow some of them to remain on the site despite being self tuning curve fits. These can convince less than smart people that the systems work. They're just tricks. They're all about stochk 5 2, stoch k 5 2 sma, stock 14 1, stochk 14 1 smas, MACDH whatever period works, MACDH curve fitted period winners. They'll find the best value until something works. There's hundreds of values to manipulate until you find something that works. If you give it another 20 years it might finish it's self tuning and find you the next losing system. Oh, and, Jack, it's nothing personal. Spydertrader wrote most of your scripts. They have the average statistics of losing money. A not very hard thing to do.
It's more about probability than anything. You're bound to find something that works if you give it 1 million combinations to work from. At least a few of those will make you think it works, when, in actuallity, they're fake outputs merely attributable to chance. It has taken me a long time to know what curve fitting is. In fact, I think every indicator ever created can be curve fitted or made to work on any dataset, given reasonable complexity in the variables. It has turned me off enormously to technical indicators because of this particular period on wl4.wealth-lab.com On these Jack Hershey scripts, are some of the most verbose long winded scripts ever written. They have thousands of areas that could effect outcomes. With that level of intricacy, you will find something to work with, but it won't ever last.
Jack thinks stochastics is a leading indicator: I see the Stoch 5, 2,3 fast line (blue for me) go up through 50%. It is a leading indicator of price and it tells me one thing only. Sentiment has shifted from Distribution to Accumulation. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1302778&#post1302778
I'll be honest, Trader666, I don't know you, but what I've read in this thread I don't think I'd pay attention. No offense. It'll be stoch 5 2 3 now, but years later, the combination might be 71 3. Just keep chugging on the 80 quintillionth combination....
VIDEO AUTOMATED HERSHEY METHOD. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Muc...d-max=2008-04-20T15:30:00-07:00&max-results=7
You are aware that none of those scripts are used in the manner you tested them for profitability? You are aware that the information they were developed to provide -which is unrelated to their buy and sell signals generated- is used as partial inputs in a multistep process? As an aside you can see Spyders entry and exit signals/criteria, (which came from information off of those chart scripts, not the chart script buy/sell signals) posted the day before trades were taken in Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal. IIRC, Spyder had over 100% ROI for that journal (1 year), but you can prove that to yourself by looking at the journal postings. -Au
FYI We archive scripts in various places. There are many many script writers. The scripts are used as add ons in various platforms that do not have the appropriate software support. This is being pointed out to you. Below, in green, are the basic characteristics of the three applications (SCT, PVT and SR, from small to large capital application) of the pool extraction algorithm. The opportunity defines the application of capital. Three applications provide for a complete financial investment and trading set that can handle an unlimited amount of capital. Profits are moved from the smallest most restricted application SCT) to the equities position trading (PVT) and then to the larger unlimited application (SR). SCT is used for conducting pool extraction at roughly five times the commodities index market offering capacity. The money velocity of trading is high and at a rate of up to forty profit segments a day. This leveraged trading yields a multiple of the ATR daily. PVT trading conveniently handles 100,000 share units of approximately 200 stocks in the US market at any given time. The PVT rotation of capital, optimally, is 100 cycles per annum. Each individual application is in the 2.5 million dollar range and the optimized hold period approximates 2 ½ days. SR trading is relatively slow at a rate of 4% a week and duration of 4 ½ weeks; unlimited capital may be applied since a sector rotation strategy is used. With this market opportunity knowledge acting as an incentive it is clear what the time value of money is. If and when doing the work of learning purposefully, it is very worthwhile to make a fully dedicated effort. Many people in a lot of categories explore "Who is Jack Hershey and what's his method?". Some of them are gracious and some are demanding. There is a filter involved and it tends to separate people away from those who are in the "passing it forward stage". This is good because " passing it forward" is the step where a person really acquires excellent skills and knowledge about making money. The relationship of a person's due diligence to that of the provider of due diligence is quite clear to those of us who have been purposeful learners and those who have passed it forward in the last four generations. Due diligence is done by the seeker and not the people who use the methods. You did your wealth lab exercise. And its value has been explained to you along with why it has the value it does. There are many whiners here and they make trite demands from the vacuum they occupy. If they don't get what they want, they demean as the OP did and the whiners continually do. So you wind up in a trap of your making and misunderstanding. Why? There are several approaches for coming to an understanding of how the pool extraction paradigm works. Analysis. Synthesis. They both work. The principles are few. 1. Always be on the right side of the market. 2. To make money you have to be in the market. therefore, the optimum is to be in the market at all times. 3. You can only exceed the capacity of the market by so much. I use 500%. The above is common knowledge in my opinion. For 1., I find that most people, information and literature I read tells the story like yours and the OP's. The super key ingredient invloved is that as the right side of the market changes, there is a period of overlap. Marshalling the reasoning power of the mind to discover and deal with this is uncommon, evidently. Most people cannot observe change in markets and the fact that it does not go on all the time in the sense of an operating point of a regime that has a lot of variables. For 2. the principle is self evident. But I notice people spend time on the sidelines and these periods begin right after they do what is called an "exit". They have not reasoned out that they cannot make any more money if they exit. Your data is all based on exits. The algorithm and it's coding and scripts for its applications do not do exits and go to sidelines but instead it reverses or crosses over into a higher money velocity. For 3, capacity determines how big you can play. In ES several things show the capacity clearly: tic volume, DOM depth; fractal volume; the T&S place holders: units, tens, hundreds and thousands; cascading; blow out rate; inbalance of the book; volatility; drift rate of premium; sideline levels of smart money; etc, etc. Sweeping idle capital out of accounts is a major activity as is tempering running at five times capacity. The latter is mostly a matter of harmonic analysis or synthesis. What closes minds and what prevents minds from receiving input are very important issues. You said you contributed on pages 24 and 25, if I remember. The OP is on a phishing expedition because he wants something. You could not contribute and, still, you cannot figure that out. The OP wants the wrong thing and he is going to get it in spades. Closed minds and minds that cannot receive input. A guy whose name includes "increase" got a wake up call. What tipped the balance? And what mission did he mount to satisfy his wants? Maybe seeing 44,000 dollars made on 20,000 dollars of capital tipped the balance. For most people this is patentedly impossible for an advanced beginner/intermediate to do. For even more people it has never been done nor ever will be. What was increases mission for a few hours? He is suspicious that some people, over the last 50 years, have learned to do this. He is correct and a lot of them are also experts who can trade at the capacity of the market simply because they have the capital so to do. This thread is a small blip on the time line of 50 years. It will return to complacency as have the others created by people with closed minds and minds that cannot receive input. How do forums and threads that get 1 to 2 million hits a year or 4 or 5,000 hits a day go on for the designated year or the designated syllabus (all the while having the detractors deleted out)? These are open minded forums on the part of the providers and the recievers. Roles advance too. Exchange of information is of little value simply because that is not how learning occurs. Learning comes from drills. A drill is a purposeful thing that is repeated by the receiver. The OP espouses that he "locked up" a PA method he thinks he figured out. Its just like a guy in C2 says he does X, and Y. he is running a bait and switch. Humorously speaking, some people are following it and others are critiquing it. So none of these people can recognize it is a bait and switch. Why not? All are examples of closed minds and mnds that cannot recieve inputs. Is there anyway to repair these minds that are on input IGNORE? Obviously not. That is not going to happen because it is too late. Also look at the whiners whose esteemed purpose is protecting n00bs. They have closed minds that cannot accept input and they are advocates for those who show up with open minds to learn. Can the n00bs whose minds are undifferentiated recognize these kinds of protectors? As time passes the n00bs inference grows in direct proportion to his ability to differentiate as a consequence of the drills he is informally or formally undertaking. Here the OP and you are each doing drills. You each made up your drill. You are beginning to differentiate more and moar according to the dictates of the inference your made up drills dictate. By now both of you are closed to most input and you are, inductively growing your long term memories to differentiate in ways that are counterproductive and become more and more of your inference in your perception. Getting off these horses is not going to happen and it is a consequence of your past choices. Always be on the right side of the market; always be in the market; use you earned capital to trade at the capacity of the market. How do you think a broker feels at the end of the day when she had netted 1.7 million (on 100,000 shares in the sell range of 28 dollars) over 11 accounts, four of which she knew were in the name of adult mentally changed people? She was a little emotional (tears) on the phone after the 4 1/2 hours work.
I don't think you've gone over sector rotation here, other than mention of it. Is it more of position trading a basket of stocks according to their sector, or using sector funds themselves?