who is getting out the early vote

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Nov 1, 2012.

  1. jem


    I keep seeing articles like these...


    while ak keeps posting claims to the opposite effect.

    I am not sure but I think Aks claims are dated.

    Mitt Romney is winning the White House race among Americans who have already voted, according to a new poll released last night.
    The Republican challenger has opened up a seven point lead among the 15 per cent who have cast their votes early.
    Pollster Gallup says Mr Romney has more ballots in the bank than President Obama by a margin of 52 per cent to 45 per cent.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...d-Barack-Obama-early-votes.html#ixzz2B1LlCcev
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  2. jem


    The Campaign Spot
    Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

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    Tough News for Obama in Early Voting Figures
    By Jim Geraghty
    November 1, 2012 11:13 A.M. Comments24
    Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report notes that the early vote in Virginia is not going the way the Obama campaign hoped: “Today’s new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off 2008 pace.” He elaborates that as of yesterday, 185,489 ballots had been cast in Obama localities, compared to 214,783 by this point in 2008, while 115,908 in McCain, compared to 117,224 in 2008.

    He adds, “Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax – 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm…” and “In Romney strongholds, enthusiasm up. Hanover (33.1% Obama) turnout up 6.2%, Buchanan (coal country) up 14.5% vs. 2008.”

    By the way, I will be quite surprised if Romney-Ryan doesn’t outpace McCain-Palin’s vote totals and percentages in northern Virginia by a healthy margin. I say that based on the GOP get-out-the-vote operations improving in the 2009 and 2010 elections, and the almost unbelievable numbers of A) Romney-Ryan signs (paid for by the Republican Party of Virginia) in neighborhoods like mine where Obama-Biden yard signs appeared standard-issue for all homeowners four years ago and B) George Allen for Senate yard signs.

    In this morning’s Jolt, now in the hands of subscribers, I took a look at some indicators in Ohio, Wisconsin, and nationally.

    Hey, remember how the Obama campaign’s fantastic get-out-the-vote operation was going to create this impregnable firewall of key swing states, and run up such an enormous advantage in the early vote that Romney would never be able to make up the difference?

    First interesting indicator of the morning from early voting: I mentioned Tuesday that early voting in Cuyahoga County, Ohio – the Democrat vote stronghold that includes Cleveland – slipped behind the pace of 2008 after running ahead for the first twenty-eight days of early voting or so. (We don’t know how these early voters are voting, but Obama won this county 69 percent to 30 percent last time around, so we can presume he’s leading this cycle on a somewhat comparable rate.) Well, the early vote collapsed Tuesday and Wednesday. Of course, a big chunk of that dropoff is from the remains of Hurricane Sandy dumping snow and wind and miserable weather on the Cleveland area. But if we see early voting continue to be slow in these final days, it will be a bit of evidence that the Democrats get-out-the-early vote effort in Ohio isn’t really expanding their total share of the vote; they’re just getting their traditional Election-Day-voters to vote earlier.
  3. Lucrum


    Historically my county votes Republican 75% of the time so it's not really representative.
    But when I voted early I saw maybe two potential Obama supporters out of over a hundred voters.
  4. JamesL


    Pew Too.

    The Pew Research Center survey found that the race is even among all likely voters nationwide (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Unlike the last campaign, the race also is close among voters who say they have already voted. In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant. At this point four years ago, Obama led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%) among early voters.

  5. LEAPup


    You didn't see two voters. You saw two lunatics out who have no business being out.
  6. hughb


    I've already voted, my presidential vote went for Romney, but it was for naught - I live in California.
  7. http://www.examiner.com/article/obama-continues-to-lead-nevada-early-vote

    Obama continues to lead in Nevada early vote

    With just two days left before the end of early voting in Nevada, Democrats are leading Republicans 45 percent to 38 percent, giving President Obama the edge over Mitt Romney going into the November 6 Election Day.

    As of the latest count from the secretary of state's office, 533,064 people had voted statewide, which is about 42 percent of the state's electorate.

    Of those, 235,514 were registered Democrats, while registered Republicans numbered 200,678. Other registrants, including independents, totaled 96,872.

    The Democrats had a 90,000-registration advantage going into the early voting period, which began October 20. Republicans have been steadily catching up as more party members went out to vote.

    One of Wednesday's early voters was Sen. Harry Reid, the U.S. Senate majority leader, who figured in an accident Friday at a Las Vegas freeway.

    In his first public appearance since that accident, Reid told the Las Vegas Sun, “I’m OK,” while rubbing the right side of his rib cage, where he said he was still sore.

    “There’s not much I can’t do, except I’m not much of a hugger,” he said.

    Reid was involved in a five-car pileup Friday in the northbound lanes of Interstate 15, near the Sahara Avenue exit.

    The senator said that he expects that turn-out for the early voting would reach about 70 percent of the electorate.

    To meet that prediction, by Election Day, more than 350,000 Nevadans will have to vote between now and the close of early voting Friday, November 2.

    Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller said that nearly half a million people have so far turned out to vote in person, by mail, and by absentee ballot.

    Miller said more than 45 percent of those voters were registered Democrats while 37 percent were registered Republicans. Another 17.8 percent marked “none” or “other.”

    Obama won Nevada, which has six electoral college votes, in 2008 over John McCain with more than 120,000 votes.

    “Turnout is good, and we expect by Election Day to have about 70 to 75 percent of the vote already in,” Reid said.


    Florida GOP memo: Democrats are 'cleaning our clock'

    WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- A memo obtained by NewsChannel 5's Evan Axelbank, from an adviser to a Florida GOP campaign, says that the Democratic turnout effort is "cleaning our clock."

    VIEW THE MEMO HERE: (http://media.wptv.com/photo/j.jpg)

    The memo says, "The early and absentee turnout is starting to look more troubling."

    It also says, "Even if Romney wins the state (likely based on polls), the turnout deficit in PBC will affect our local races."

    At the Delray Beach early voting site, we saw a Democratic campaign operative, who was handing out sheets printed with the Democratic slate.

    "Alright Democrats, you've got your cheat sheet here," said Robert Murstein, a Democratic party volunteer.

    Murstein is carrying out his party's game plan.

    "Just to get as many people in the process as possible," said Murstein.

    During the first three days of countywide early voting, 60 percent of ballots cast have been by Democrats, 22 percent by Republicans.

    That's a 38 point edge, even though Democrats only hold a 14 point lead in registrations.


    Obama Holds Big Lead Among Early Voters

    The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds President Obama had a lead of 53% to 42% among the 17% of the surveyed registered voters who said they had already cast their vote.

    In the crucial swing state of Ohio, a new Time poll finds Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney among those who have voted early, 60% to 30%.


    Obama Campaign Sees Early-Vote Edge

    DAYTON, O.H. - President Obama's top campaign advisers today said early-voting returns in several battleground states show Democrats with an edge over Republicans in courting so-called "sporadic voters," those Americans who would not otherwise vote and could tilt the scale in a tight race.

    "We are outperforming our early-vote margins in key states compared to 2008. We're ahead of where we were against McCain, and more importantly, we're ahead of Mitt Romney," said Obama campaign manager Jim Messina on a conference call with reporters. "Romney may be winning more raw votes than McCain did at this time, but look the facts are important here. And the numbers tell a very clear story."

    Messina said that the campaign's growth in early-vote margins, borne out both in state election data and in public polling of early voters, is a net gain for Democrats since many early voters are people who likely would not have otherwise voted. The process was widely credited with helping Obama win several swing states in 2008.

    "Early vote isn't only taking a finite number of voters and only changing the day they vote. …. What early vote does is help us get out our low propensity voters-voters called sporadic voters-which broadens our universe and frees up more 'get out the vote' resources later, especially on election day," Messina claimed.

    "This is about increasing the overall share of people, who may be drop out voters. And our numbers and public numbers are showing that more Obama sporadic voters are voting than Romney sporadic voters, which is a very big piece of business for the total turnout," he said.

    Public polls show Obama holds double-digit leads among people who have already voted in Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin, states where in-person early voting is allowed. Obama also leads in North Carolina.

    The U.S. Elections Project at George Mason University tracks all public early voting data HERE .

    The data are not considered good indicators of the ultimate electoral outcome in any given state, but do provide a snapshot of voter engagement and the campaigns' ability to bank votes ahead of time.

    "Here is the most important thing to remember 14 days out: We're tied or ahead in every battleground state, and we're not leaving any place where we are tied or ahead," he said. "Romney has not been able to knock us out of a single battleground, and we've forced him to spend more and more resources in states like North Carolina that the Romney campaign has said they wanted locked up a long time ago."
  8. . :D .
  9. Lucrum


    One whole state huh? And with a whopping 6 electoral votes.
  10. jem


    #10     Nov 2, 2012