I was wondering, now that prices in many areas and stocks have fallen significantly, how many people are bullish and looking to bargain hunt in real estate stocks, or even acquire actual houses, apartments, and condos?
Personally, I think late 09 will be the best time to start looking. I still think things are going lower through 08 and hopefully leveling in 09. Its very possible it could take longer though. IMO
The rent vs. price relationship still indicates more decline. Of course, if rents go up, then prices may not decline as much. Recent op-ed in the NY Times, considering that relationship, estimated a 30% decline nationally. In Tucson, it's estimated that house prices are 35% too high, considering that relationship. As an example, a CFC foreclosure was put on the market at $185K here, and was sold within 9 days; a very comparable (about 100 sq ft more, but lot about 1/2 the size) house in the same subdivision was offered at 285K and has just been reduced to 265K -- still no takers.
Correction up, to clarify. And that will be somewhat of a sucker bet as well - clearly a flip this property situation. 2009-2011.
The Real Estate Pro's I know, the ones who saw this coming a long time ago say the cycle usually takes 8 - 12 years peak to trough. That is for actual real estate, not the stocks. How long did the last housing downturn/bubble take to work off?
Yeah, I'm a bull, but it depends on what you mean by "bull". I think its a good time to add rental property to a portfolio if you plan to own it long term. I don't see payments (which is a function of price and rates) going much lower. If I can cash flow a property, and the bank will let me buy it...then I would. Problem is the banks are scared and rents haven't moved high enough to justify anything yet. SM
Well, I'm shopping, anyways. Looking for a 2nd house closer to family - not looking to call a bottom or make money.