Oh no....I knew it...P is gonna whack BO. Run for your lives....Run for the hills.... P is the Jack Ruby of the BO whack.
Not with ease. It's like trading size in any other thin market. You wipe the book a bit and then just show your size at an advantagous price for sellers. Intrade isn't the kind of market where McCain sellers are going to be glued to their screens 24/7. It may take you a day or two for someone to whack your bid.
Yes, of course, it is still very early in the process. Just about anything could happen between now and November. It this point however, it's Obama's election to lose.
How the hell do you come to that conclusion? There is that person named Clinton that got about the same number of votes as Obama. And Gore got how many? That's right, ZERO. Doesn't matter if he didn't run. Think of that 18 million that voted for Hillary. How pissed off ya think they'd be if Gore slipped in there? Bye bye Dem Party. Gore obviously doesn't want to run anyway. You are kidding yourself to think otherwise. And finally, why would Obama not be able to run? Some nasty skeleton popping out of the closet may damage him big time, but he'd still run unless he did something illegal and was hauled off to jail.
1. Hillary's done. Don't use conventional wisdom- use traders sense. She was thrown under the bus. Do you think after EVERY big name Dem in the nation threw their support to Obama that the Kennedy's, Kerry's etal will then accept HC on the ticket? The media despises her. Besides all the "Clinton women will vote for McCain" sentiment is hogwash. At this moment the gender gap favors women backing Obama by 10pts over men. 2. You can BET Gore wanted and wants to run. He would've been smoked in the primaries and he knew it. Obama gets blacks and young libs, HC women and Gore the blue collar Dems that went HC. It would've been Obama 40, HC 30, Gore 30. Gore could see the polls. His numbers in early 2007 were dismal. It would've looked like the Chicago 1983 Mayoral primary when Byrne and Daley split for Washington. 3. A few things could happen but probably won't. Keep in mind there's still a 5% chance via Intrade that Obama isn't the nominee. The best case for Gore would have been a protracted convention fight with HC still in the mix and polls showing McCain far ahead of both HC or BO in hypotheticals. Didn't play that way. I started buying Gore after Wright thinking the stage was set. No go. Right now only two plausible scenarios. Like you say legal issues although Rezko will keep quiet. The only % chance of Gore is an assassination. As we both know 40 is a big number in trading and it's been 40 years since MLK and RFK. So there's a fractal in play. Also Obama is so divisive some nut job might just decide to take him out. Past nominees haven't exactly incited deep emotions.
I could see Obama assassinated. Only way he won't be the nom in my opinion. I believe you couldn't be more wrong about Hillary though. Hell, she still hasn't even given up. Still holding those delegates. Also, many of the big names that endorsed Obama instead of Hillary, did so after the writing was on the wall. She would get the nod or the party would be finished. Who would ever even vote in another primary if it meant nothing? That maneuver would easily hand Mac the election due to the backlash as well. Gore would easily beat Mac if he won via the primary system, but not that way. No way wold Clinton supporters vote for another dem after they were screwed - TWICE. BTW, I hate Hillary and BO. Just fan of politics.
Try following the discussion ST. We were discussing what would have to happen for Obama to not get the Dem nomination, and have it go to another democrat. Outside of assassination, I don't think that is very likely.
It looks like some democrats will not be happy with Obama as their choice. They will maybe choose to not vote for anyone. Republicans will be more loyal to voting for Mcain even if they are not happy with him as thier party nominee, they will still vote just to keep a democrat out. Mcain odds are good, but it will be very close. What do people do when they are not happy with their choices?