Well I selectively fight the trend at what I think to be inflection points. After all, fighting the trend is highly profitable if you do it when the trend is about to end. The "problem" is fighting the trend at the wrong time. I used to do it and the cure was simply experience. After following these moves for 10 years+ I slowly got used to them and learned to distinguish between when to follow and when to fight the trend. Basically you should not fight an established trend *except* when there is serious price overextension, a major imbalance of johnny-come-lately trend-following speculators in the market (you can tell this from price action & media comment), and market price action which suggests the end is imminent (i.e. price has gone parabolic and then starts to falter and/or turn down rapidly). You obviously have a psychological bias in your trading. Your bias is to always be fading moves. There are several ways to cure it: i) keep trying to fight the trend at all times, take repeated losses, and finally have a big loss which is so damn painful (and possibly bankrupting) that you learn your lesson. ii) gain years of market experience so that finally you learn when and when not to fight a trend iii) don't take any counter-trend trades at all for the next 12 months, only trade with an established trend on your side. Only buy markets at year-highs or all-time highs. You might not make money but you should cure your trend-fading addiction.
You think it because you are irrational, have limited market experience, and are arrogantly overrating the likelihood of your market beliefs being true. All your market beliefs should be mere hypotheses, held *extremely* tentatively until rigorously tested and proven profitable over a period of at least several years. Since your beliefs are, by your own admission, proving highly *unprofitable*, then you have absolutely no excuse to hold them. I can't stress this enough - neither you nor anyone else should have *any* faith whatseoever in their market intuition or beliefs, until they have proven consistently profitable over a number of years. Realising you know nothing, and that your presumed "knowledge" is actually harmful, is the first step towards evolving from losing trader to breakeven and finally profitable.
IMO what it means is that under limited market conditions (i.e. markets where momentum significantly outweighs noise), prices move in such a way that trend-following trading approaches can make abnormally high risk-adjusted returns. What is problematic is knowing when markets are amenable to trend-following/momentum methods, and when they are in the more typical "noise>momentum" phase. Most trend-following traders attempt to address this problem by trading all markets at all times, but increasing size when momentum seems to predominate.
Well Cutten reason because I opened this tread is to get advice like yours. It's really good to hear it. Plain common seance logic and market experience. Thank you for that. This explanation is very helpfull.
Well Cutten reason because I opened this tread is to get advice like yours. It's really good to hear it. Plain common seance logic and market experience. Thank you for that. This explanation is very helpfull.
True E=MC2 FALSE chart=market I think everyone has forgotten to focus on one very important aspect of this discussion. CHART does not equal MARKET. When you are looking at the Euro chart it is not the MARKET. The only real market is the actual bids and offers displayed and actual trades at any given moment. You sure are suffering from chart envy NOT market envy! To heal the sick we first must diagnose the illness correctly. I cancelled my esignal subscription because it always gave me the feeling I was missing something. A chart always makes it look so easy!! Now I trust my perception of the order book(TT MD Trader). It is very difficult to stay in the present moment when using a chart to analyze the present moment.
Did you ever consider that you were looking at the data in a variable environment so what you were seeing, varied was inconsistent? Let me guess . . . you were looking at minute charts with multiple indicators. An uncluttered price chart created with Volume Bars is a snap shot of price movement because it is pure price and what is each Market's foundation but price. Each indicator you then add to the chart diminishes the accuracy of that chart. The Chart (does) = The Market as long as the Chart is pure.
The only part of the chart which is "pure" is the last traded volume. Again chart does not equal market.
I am only speaking about intraday trading ES emini. All these trend traders would always say these dumb-ass counter-trend traders are throwing money at them to create this huge trend. Where do you think that money is coming from? They took it from the trend traders previously. It would be best if one can be a switch hitter but I think it is hard. I don't think trading counter-trend is just an ego thing. The actual problem is counter-trend works and it is far more consistent than trend. When it doesn't work, people don't know how to stop themselves from pushing the buttons. The keys are good entry (small risk) and basic money management. You can also go countertrend on a smaller time frame while going with the trend on the larger time frame if the trend is strong but you have to be extremely patient waiting for the pullback (good entry technique) because the price that everybody gets in is a bad price. According to my numbers, it is statistically better strategy for intraday trading ES but people are not robots and they over-bet in adverse situation (when they are losing). My understanding is good countertrend strategy is dangerous because the trader is less attuned to taking losses. The best strategy I saw is not indicator-based so the computer can't help with automation. If you know how to handling losses, there is a good chance your countertrend strategy works better than any statistics you read about anywhere because winners don't talk about it. Just MHO.
Quote from Cutten: "You think it because you are irrational, have limited market experience, and are arrogantly overrating the likelihood of your market beliefs being true. All your market beliefs should be mere hypotheses, held *extremely* tentatively until rigorously tested and proven profitable over a period of at least several years. Since your beliefs are, by your own admission, proving highly *unprofitable*, then you have absolutely no excuse to hold them." I thought you said you learned counter trend trading through years of experiece of fighting trend, etc. Spending years trading a system you didn't really believe in (see above) doesn't exactly seem like you follow your own advice.