I don't see anything especially bearish about daily VIX at the moment. And range-wise seems a bit muted also lately.
The market has been up since the election. It will likely still continue to go up. That's what it does >70% of the time, right? I'm sure if the market continues higher, Trump will do his best to prevent Biden have having a rising stock market. Trump drama will be the next major crash. That's my guess. I used to think a Tech fine/break up would cause it, but too much time has passed. My guess, the event would induce a spike higher in the face of shorts. Trump drama or military conflict with China over Taiwan.
%% They have split spxs now; i'm watching/ recording spxu more now........................................................................... Took long profits on SPYG + another tech etf, tuesday early
Right re SPXS, it and SQQQ held up well. Big 2day low breakdown in S&P today shows potential market weakness, though quick recovery. Mostly boring af inside day. Closed inside pd range so weak volatility. RIG XPEV F good early moves.
Before it happens, the market has to go to ridiculous highs so that even Grandmothers are getting short (check with your grandmother.) Then, squeeze #1: all the shorts that thought the market was way too high have to be squeezed out with one last thrust to the moon. Then when the selling starts, Squeeze #2: the market has to rebound to squeeze out all the shorts that got in when the selling started. Then, finally, once Squeeze #1 and Squeeze #2 are finished, the correction can proceed to a ridiculously low bottom.
%% SPXS looked too high last i looked; spxu, sdow,dxd are making some up moves. I had planned on buying some sdow, dxd today; but looks like the grandmoms + grandkids...... are buying spxu + UPRO, so ok by me.....
Taiwan has 1 or 2 major beaches where the CCP could off-load their troops & those are defended as Normandy. (not sure is that heavily and i doubt, but Taiwan is aware of such scenario) Even if they do something like that, there would be a slight risk of fail (+thousands of dead) & CCP's China 2025 plan would have a completely different image in the eyes of nations around the globe. Put a scenario of em doing more nonsense at HK and those concentration camps and even the most skeptical nations/ left would be - ,,Ok, something ain't right here'' +Jack missing In any case, just another chance to make those monies.
%% Could be a sell off shock. Come to find out the chicoms shack up with muslims wives, while they put the muslim men in ''education camps'' They also sell the muslim men as slave$ a lifetime value about $777,000; + organ harvesting for a lot, a bit like they harvest baby butcher parts in US....................................................................WE are due for a correction by end of MAR, not sure if that news sets it off??
Would be a hell of a one. Nikkei with JPY & AUD, all of the Indonesian region etc, to India & then hello west. Or the 10 Mil forced abortions in Tibet. And some will be like : ,,Yeah, but during WW2, in Germa -...." During then, in Mao China potentially as much dead as Naz and Stal combined. Times change, while the tactics of regime - nah, not that much. Actually spend some time with a guy from CCP navy, few conversations, (he was a young tourist). All fine, but then, can't get rid that thought from the back of your head : ,,Whats the real reason of you being here ? " Dunno about that self off tho. If it happens, gladly will add more to already existing longs. (Lots of reits, vaccine kicks in-customers back) Except Taiwan. Air strikes - bad for buildings (Smile)