My biggest challenge will be scaling into inverses correctly without selling too soon, and overtrading for tiny vs bigger profits. Best fix I can find is trading multiple inverses in several accounts and staggering trailing stops. Favorites are UVXY SDOW TZA and SQQQ. Also trading FAZ LABD SPXS SOXS. Lmk if any ideas to keep it simple
this is a good thread but the problem is th definition of what everyone tends to call "the top" the top of what? 1.the top of the 12 year bull market which means you are expecting what a dip to covid lows? 2. the top of what a 20 % sell off in a week? 3. the top of this euphoric recent bull run off the last major daily low? again as in almost 90 % of what I see from new traders to old traders to teachers no one ever really talks about 1. what kind of a top or bottom they are looking for or 2. if a top what kind of a sell off they are looking for or if a bottom what kind of a rally this is the way most people like to talk up tops and bottoms that way with hindsight they can always come back and say look i was right it did sell off from where i called it but the reality is 90 % miss tops and bottoms entering way too early (me included lots of times) and if they do nail the top or bottom they do not CAPITALIZE on it properly because in real time not (HINDSIGHT) you have no idea when the bottom is going to happen or be exact. you do obviously with hindisght and back testing. the remedy to this is to use a range of prices for top entry and a range of prices for the target of your exit (profit taking). I think we are close to a weekly chart top and i think there will be some profit taking. I am looking for a top in the Nasdaq now up to 13,300 in the march NQ futures that i think will be started with massive selling in TESLA with few buyers showing up which will help people all start to sell and to top it off i think as this happens you get the speculative bitcoin bubble to pop and sell also which in my opinion would help the stocks sell as well. I am looking for the nasdaq when and if this happens to fall around 5 % so 13,000 x .05= 650 points. O think this will happen before february and if not then i think there is an even higher probability of this happening in february. I will be exiting around 500 points of profit should this happen or start to happen. I already started slowly buying vix and tesla puts. I am buying emerging market value outside of the usa including china tech and brasil and mexico. I am selling down many of my 500 % plus gains in JMIA and snap as well as lightening up on BIDU but i will buy back in should get a few % below my average. I also bought russia rsx. i am slowly getting defensive and will keep adding to my vix and my tesla as the mkt continues to go up so that the day or 2 or 3 that is does sell hard i will already be prepared with an ok average price on all of my defensive stuff and I will be in a lot of cash and have already exited a lot of my highly profitable trades. If you want to reduce the tax burden and maintain your positions then slowly buy vix and or sell sp500 micros againt your stocks portgolio and keep adding as it goes up but obvioulsy do not do a 1:1 hedge until you feel or actually see the mkt is on the back side. Anyway in theory it all looks easy and that it should work but in reality when the dow is down 600 and you scratcfh head saying hmm.. if i hedge now and it sup 800 tomorrow i am screwed then it is probably too late for you to do anything they already have you in their sights and hypnotized by your greed and lack of common sense! This is why my plans always include slowly getting out and hedged early unless something big happens that causes a severe shift.. and i need to be quick about it. aka covid in february . i was already long lot sof vix calls at that point. Good luck and be smart. I am not against calling tops n bottoms but make sure you have it defined.
I am hedged short via UVXY and options...against a small (45k) long portfolio (including some TSLA). I am going to close most of my longs by Jan 30. and see what happens... Remember, Livermore was on a 6 mill paper loss before he made his 100 mill in 1929.
Top who knows when ... but TSLA closing in on a trillion dollar market cap (800+ billion currently) on a 2% or so profit margin is as insane as our soon to be ex-fearless leader.
Very simple. This has always worked for me. When the long counterpart shows a sell signal buy. Short counterpart. Example, monitor only tqqq and when tqqq has a sell signal optionally go long on sqqq. Be modest in profit target on inverse short counterparts. This rule will break on uvxy svxy pairs. I have never been able to time uvxy it reacts too fast.
Whenever I see these market crash threads of yours I keep thinking that it will be time to go balls deep on the short side when you capitulate and turn bullish. But you’ve proven yourself to be a permabear so I’ve given up on that idea. An ancestor of yours may have gotten fucked by a grizzly. You can’t help yourself, Ken. You have bear genes.
Why are you allowed to make calls? What is to stop you from being very specific about how you are going to play the next predicted move? Or even giving a hypothetical scenario.. If I was going to play this next move I would buy this stock at XXX with a stop at xxx and a target of XxX.