Discussion in 'Options' started by Hoofhearted, Aug 6, 2012.
the AUG 39.00 strike is pretty cheap.
What makes you think it's gonna go lower?
Testicles in a jar
You don't know how dividends work.
You don't know how options work.
I think I will go long...
Moving day averages,, missed assesments, and future projections....oh yeah- and a hunch...
Having completed a technical and fundamental analysis on CAH, I've come to the following conclusions.
The technical analysis was based on the one year, the 2 year and the 5 year chart:
It's the kind of company i would NOT want to "bet" will rise or drop from it's current $39 price.
HOWEVER, I do believe will trade in the $38 - $39 range in the days to come.
And "if" it eventually trades in the $36 area, I would then sell a $33 put or spread, when the credit met my criteria.
It's too solid a company to risk betting against.
But while it's overall fundamentals are good, it's blend of fundamentals are not exactly strong enough to "bet" the stock will rise from here either.
Hence, the best approach is to pick a price that is a good technical and fundamental "blend" for it's overall picture.
For me, when/if the stock tests the $36 area, I plan to sell a $33 put.
Until then, I'll be monitoring it, like I'm monitoring 1,000 other stocks on my watch list.
I'm just a small timer myself. So I definitely wouldnt recommend any one follow my notions. I couldn't resist a few contracts at $60 for the 39.00 strike. If it goes to 38.00 in the next few days like I my sensors are hoping, I'll make a quick 50%+ return on my modest investment. If it hovers for more than a few days, I'll probably just try and get some of my money back. But, yeah- I can see where some of the higher ups doing contracts in the double or triple digits wouldn't want to get in there right now.
Thanks for the reply
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