Who does everyone use for macro research?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by HussainAl, Oct 6, 2019.

  1. HussainAl


    New to this forum, but looks very promising.

    Was just wondering who you guys use for macro/ fundamentals research/ analysis (if you do at all). Would be also quite curious to understand the extend to which everyone uses macro to devise strategies.

  2. faet


    Hi Al,

    The extent one uses macroeconomics data depends on what type of trading you do.

    For example, if you are looking to 'scalp' a few ticks here and there, it may not make much sense to understand current macroeconomic trends. Similarly, if you day-trade, i.e. open and close positions within the same trading session, fundamentals knowledge may help relatively little.

    Of course you may still need to be aware of certain market moving events. For example, even if you are day-trading, trading 6E or ZN the day when NFP data are released may very well impact your trading significantly.

    If you are planning to hold your trade for longer periods of time then fundamentals tend to have a larger impact, depending on the market/instrument traded.

    As everything in trading, it depends on the context.

    Personally I use mostly Bloomberg and Reuters and then I use tradingeconomics.com to perform longer-term analysis.
    tommcginnis likes this.
  3. HussainAl


    Hi Faet,

    Thanks for your swift response.

    I am familiar with utilising macro frameworks in devising strategies, and so I appreciate how macro/ thematic views may not be suitable for scalping/ day-trading. I personally feel, however, that they definitely do help in formulating longer term holistic views on the market. I then may or may not construct an idea off this understanding, using it as a foundation.

    I'm trying to work out the best content producers now I'm thinking to retail trade rather than institutional. Bloomberg & Reuters, IMO, are great but often only touch the surface. I was looking for more research & opinion providers.

  4. Wheezooo


    None. Most are written by individuals who have near zero participation in the marketplace. As for fundamentals, heck, even when I had better knowledge of my market than anyone else, next week was always a complete mystery.
  5. Peter8519


    Most fundamental info are already baked into the price already. Can try this simple approach. Just run a screen on the stock database by comparing current close versus previous close(+ = winner, - = loser). Look at those industries with at least 2X winner vs loser. You can see that utilities, REIT, Closed End Fund are the main movers.
    HussainAl and Lou Friedman like this.
  6. HussainAl


    I agree. And that's the issue with what I've faced. On a retail level, it's hard to come across research that's worth reading by market participants and is affordable. Hence I was curious to begin with. Also, I know exactly what you're talking about... but for me... I can feel stronger towards an opinion/ deduce higher sentiment on a view for the longer term if the fundamentals align with the technicals, price action etc.

    I also feel like fundamentals & just general (well-written & thoughtful) research spark ideas... with Thomas Cook/ current credit markets etc... it did make me take a step back and think how CLOs are performing... did you know CLO market is almost same size as CDO market back in 07/ 08 and that credit standards are deteriorating following huge investor demand off the back of low interest rates.. point is, although I won't and don't trade like this, it gets me thinking about a framework/ foundation I can build other ideas from, especially combined with other thematic views... hope that makes sense on how I feel about fundamentals.

    I'm very aware that there are traders/ investors who heavily believe that all fundamentals are priced in...

    How do you approach your market then? If you don't mind me asking, what area do you trade/ invest?
  7. HussainAl


    Thanks. Will look into this as a quick experiment.
  8. Fonz


    MattZ likes this.
  9. HussainAl


  10. I have my own technique, read the article below.


    The data tables in the link below give an example (Euro Crisis Book Statistics).


    The book is available below (if you have amazon lending library you can read it for $0.0 I think? Check it).

    #10     Oct 6, 2019