who are we playing against as retail traders?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mute9003, Dec 1, 2021.

  1. If you are trading a 1 min time frame, you are trading noise which is not useful. If you can't open a chart in a higher time frame and just see the setups, you should not be trading.

    Also, while no one per say is trading against you, weak stops are hunted. Your stop should be wide and where price action would prove you made a bad decision.
     
    #21     Dec 1, 2021
    dennis86, murray t turtle and Nobert like this.
  2. deaddog

    deaddog

    Can someone explain exactly how stops are hunted?

    I'm not disputing that they are hunted, there were days I was sure the whole market was just waiting for me to make a move so that it could reverse. I'm just curious how someone or some entity can bring the market down to my stop then jump it back up.
     
    #22     Dec 1, 2021
  3. Bad_Badness

    Bad_Badness

    It is pretty easy to see where stops will accumulate. A short term barrier will develop and people put stops just outside that barrier.

    Suppose a "low" is 100" if you can use say 200 contracts to move past that barrier (overwhelm the book very short term) and hit the stops at 99-97, and then use 150 contracts to go the other way,

    On the way down you clear all the shorts that covered, and they are not ready to short again before you cover your 200 and add 150 more long, so you run it back up. Then others see the low being tested "successfully" and jump in on the Long side, at least for awhile. Then you sell your 150 into the rally in parts.

    It is called a "flush" I believe. There is also a "ramp job" where there is a false breakout. Then there is the counter moves to these. There are not that many players who can move a block trade of 200+ contracts. And there are those who do not bother because they move 1000 or 2000 contracts for other reasons. If you are the person who has a "team", you can make use of both.

    Happens almost every day, and often several times a day on ES. It is a obvious Bot to write. There are a lot more nuances to code, but that is the basics of what I see every day. And it is just an algorithmic version of what people did before.

    Just because there are "millions" of people does not mean they are all relevant. Also just because there is a lot of complexity does not mean there are not patterns amongst the noise.

    Any sailor or surfer can tell-see the difference in the chop from the swells, or the wakes from the rouge waves. It is not a mystery, it is just incredibly complex and beyond 90% of the people because they lack the knowledge and, analytic skills and, intelligence, and ability, and time to work enough to "get it". (notice all the "and" in that statement :D) That is why there are so many people offering "solutions".

    Of course, this is just one persons opinion.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2021
    #23     Dec 2, 2021
  4. Peter8519

    Peter8519

    Cut KBR. Win some, lose some. It's painful but part of the game.
    I don't need to know whose at the other side. I am at the losing side. :(
    KBR.jpg
     
    #24     Dec 2, 2021
    smallfil likes this.
  5. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    I never trade using obvious dumb-money s/r levels bc you get false breakouts.

    I use offset entries. Eg if prior obvious resistance is 15.1 I don't enter until 15.22
     
    #25     Dec 2, 2021
    murray t turtle likes this.
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Right there in the candle wicks. Especially the long ones.
     
    #26     Dec 2, 2021
  7. Bugsy

    Bugsy

    Hedge Fund Quants, algorithms, HFT's
     
    #27     Dec 2, 2021
    smallfil likes this.
  8. MrMuppet

    MrMuppet

    I find it pretty funny that nobody is on the right track here or is on the right track for the wrong reasons.
    There is only one definitive answer to that:

    Retail makes bets. Bets are sold by entities (MMs, HFTs, HFs) who know how to price them properly.

    Example:
    Imagine a dice. You pay me 1$ per roll and if you hit a 6, I pay you 6$. Retail is looking for ways to figure out when the 6 is coming. A professional is looking for ways to buy the bet at 10cts and sell it for 20cts.


    That's it. That's the post.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2021
    #28     Dec 2, 2021
    Gambit and Craig66 like this.
  9. %% Exactly;
    that the way markets work,some sharp spikes \some smooth trends + everything in between.
    Strange year\ SPXL/UPRO,sso may do better than TQQQ, QLD/ usually TQQQ beats SPXL most of the time up + down \LOL
    Like ART cashin says ''panic sellers never win'' Planned sellers may win.
    NOT a prediction + not insured by any federal agency.:caution::caution:
     
    #29     Dec 2, 2021
    KCalhoun likes this.
  10. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Main goal is trading range-extended charts, eg I'm long KOLD SCO TZA UVXY :D
     
    #30     Dec 2, 2021