This thread will be a graveyard of all of the instances in the currency market that fly smack in the face of logic and efficient market theory.
Who is the reported Asian central bank or other who fights and fights to hold the 1.2695/1.2700 line in EURUSD only to then to get ground into getting run over. Why not let it slip right away today in the European open then counter hard? I will really enjoy reading more after-the-fact color on today's price action...
You're trying to compare apples and oranges. You cannot look at a CB buying Euros as an intraday forex trader. They're most likely buying Euros for a reason other than "investing" or "trading" like you or I. They might want to diversify holdings, or pay a debt, or invest in the EU, who knows. The point is they've determined that the 1.27 area rate is what they need to make their financial deal work. They don't care about the rate blowing buy them like you or I, and they certainly aren't trying to influence the market (unless they're protecting options). If the price action blows by them, then all it means is that they got all the EUR they put in an order for at the price they wanted.
In today's price action in EURUSD, indications were of barrier options at 1.2700 and 1.2650. I would not be surprised if there were 1.8700's in GBPUSD.
Who are they? The sum of all market participants who have determined that the EURUSD has reached "fair value" this week... EURUSD should be pegged 1.2700, period - no more trends - no more movement.
Sorry to the they that owned the EURUSD 1.2600-1.2850 DNTs due to expire today --> close but not quite. Don't spend your $0.00 USD all in one place. Sorry to other vol sellers at EURUSD lifetime lows. Especially if you are central banks. GFY to the nth degree... But you could have been hedged up anyway. Perhaps this is a glimmer of the currency market starting to move again. LoLuck with that.