Who are the idiots buying bonds for 1% interest?

Hey Shortie: will you pay for the prize to the (second) winner?
(the first winner might be shortie getting some nice trading calls).

More seriously: I think Bone is a good guy. He is stating what he thinks. There is no right or wrong in trading/investing.

Since Bone is now our friend, and has access to money, we may want to be nice to him even more. You never know, he can become overloaded with cash, and he may seek help. I am sure that Shortie and his past "enemy" TJ will be ruled ... in

 

08 (126'08) was the top today. But they did not fill me . Market now at 04/05.

 

I'd be careful, tj... Good luck, anyways.

 

I don't think the trade on the 10s is a good as the trade on the 2s or 5s, but either way overall I think I like it.

 

Hey Martinghoul. Thanks. You are a good fellow!

 

I think you are right, particularly selling calls if they have them.

As others wrote, it may be safer to wait for some sort of confirmation on the 10 and beyond. I did not look at the 5th and below, but your case is rock solid.

I was also thinking whether it is not more sensible to play the view on the dollar, the stock market, or even option volty.

I was timing it last night, and I was more successful in EUR/USD, stocks, Bonds (in that order). So may be the market is telling me to rather short the dollar.

Martinghoul makes a good case by raising the case of Japan. I think that that scenario would play out if we indeed have the actual deflation taking place, and not prior to seeing it.

 

Well, I don't quite know what to say. I'm all choked up! Pls excuse me, I can't talk right now...

 

i am afraid that i can only afford to pay in food stamps

i am clueless about the bonds so i prefer to watch. in 2008 TLT just kept going up and up... i am guessing that that type of scenario probably won't happen for decades. i understand from the discussion in this thread that we are in some unusual times anyways.

 

LOL! The best post I read in weeks!

Who told you that food stamps would not be accepted as a prize?

 

1. If this run in bonds reflects a real economic forecast rather than just a bubble by trend followers, then it would be saying something not good to hear such as fall in GDP, contraction in credit, deflation, etc.

2. My current analysis/assumption is that Helicopter Ben used words that led traders to run bond prices up so the fed would not need to do major buying if any. If this is the only reason, then I think it is a very good thing for the economy, because the cost of credit would decrease and the pricing of assets would rise, in addition to potential positive side side effect on stocks.

Are we in 1 or 2? I do not know, but my guts feeling tells me we may be in 2, particularly since I noticed that the price of Milk rose again.

PS: Bonds futures are below 126 now. I got a free trade now. I hope they will not get to my stop