Could be. Gold is a devil to trade, here's a quarterly period chart going back ~16 years. Senior gold miners ETF, very difficult to eke out a living on this. Compared to for example QQQ..... I'm noticing all the metals are shaky atm.
Automated Rio Tinto iron ore train derails in WA ABC Pilbara / By Tom Robinson and Charlie McLean Posted 6h ago The automated Rio Tinto iron ore train derailed 80 kilometres from Karratha.(Charlie McLean) In short: The driverless train, operated by mining giant Rio Tinto, derailed just after midnight on Monday. The company says no workers were in the area. What's next? Rio Tinto says it will cooperate with authorities as the crash is investigated. An investigation is underway into an iron ore train crash in Western Australia's Pilbara region. Mining giant Rio Tinto said an autonomous train hit a set of stationary wagons about 80 kilometres outside Karratha. A Rio Tinto spokesperson said the incident occurred just after midnight and that 22 wagons and three locomotives were impacted. "There were no people within the vicinity of the incident and no injuries," the spokesperson said. "We have notified the appropriate regulators and commenced an investigation. "Work will soon begin to clear the rail line." The train crashed near Karratha in the early hours of Monday morning.(ABC Pilbara: Charlie McLean) The Office of the National Rail Safety Regulator (ONRSR) said it received a report about a collision between a loaded ore train and a recovery train. "The recovery train is reported to have collided with the ore train it was sent to recover after it was disabled by a mechanical failure," a spokesman said in a statement. "ONRSR is investigating the incident and will be making a series of enquiries. "At this stage these are focused on the operation of and adherence to signalling systems in the area." The national rail safety regulator is investigating the crash.(Supplied: Western Mine Workers Alliance) It is the second Rio Tinto derailment in the Pilbara this year. An empty autonomous train left the tracks about 120km from Dampier in February. It also follows another derailment of one of the miner's autonomous train in June last year.
The mining stocks fundies think may outrun BHP and Rio Alex Gluyas Markets reporter Jul 10, 2024 https://www.afr.com/markets/commodi...-think-may-outrun-bhp-and-rio-20240709-p5js7k A rout in Australia’s largest mining companies has created a significant buying opportunity according to some of the biggest investors in the sector, who are looking beyond iron ore for the next leg of returns. Resources stocks on the ASX 200 sank 11.1 per cent in the first six months of this year after a rally in base metals in April and May rapidly unwound in June as traders took profits and strategists questioned whether prices had detached from their fundamentals. Tribeca’s Ben Cleary, David Franklyn from Argonaut, Sam Berridge from Perrenial, and Matt Langsford from Terra Capital. AFR The correction in metal prices weighed heavily on Australia’s sharemarket, which has lagged other major equity markets all year because of its heavy exposure to the resources sector. It also erased millions of dollars in market value from Australia’s largest mining companies – including BHP, which has tumbled 14.1 per cent this year. Shares in Rio Tinto have lost 11.7 per cent, Fortescue has slumped 25.4 per cent and Mineral Resources has dived 20.7 per cent. The rout in mining stocks means resource-focused fund managers are now looking beyond the historically reliable returns of the iron ore majors, and are instead beefing up their holdings in a new generation of stocks. “Resources equities are just screaming value,” said Ben Cleary, portfolio manager of Tribeca’s Global Natural Resources Fund. “While I think rate cuts are on the horizon, they aren’t necessarily needed for the commodities equities to perform strongly in the second half, but it’ll certainly help.” While copper prices have corrected from their all-time highs above $US11,000 a tonne earlier this year, Mr Cleary is still bullish on the metal and thinks prices will need to surge again to incentivise enough supply to meet the booming demand. Tribeca’s resources fund holds major producers Sandfire Resources, Metals Acquisition and Capstone Copper. Argonaut’s Natural Resources Fund is also bullish on copper, with positions in Sandfire and Metals Acquisition, along with developer Firefly Resources. How to play lithium While many fund managers are avoiding the lithium sector after a collapse in prices for the battery metal, Janus Henderson believes the sector is now a buying opportunity. Darko Kuzmanovic, senior portfolio manager of the firm’s Global Natural Resources Fund, has been buying more shares in Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals in the first half on signs that electric vehicle sales in China are increasing. “Lithium could be a surprise into the end of 2024, as lithium equities are trading at levels that imply the whole EV transition is over,” he said. Janus Henderson believes the fundamentals for many commodities remain robust, with tight supply driving copper, manganese and hard coking coal prices, and strong demand fuelling silver, gold, lithium, natural gas and uranium. “The groundwork is set for a strong rebound in resources equities and commodity prices over the next few months into year’s end,” Mr Kuzmanovic said. David Franklyn, portfolio manager of Argonaut’s Natural Resources Fund, is playing the lithium rout a little differently, and is instead sticking to small positions in emerging stocks such as Patriot Battery Metals and Latin Resources. Golden opportunity He’s avoiding the major producers altogether, given the collapse in prices is likely to weigh on their upcoming results. “June really was capitulation for the lithium sector, so we’re still cautious,” he said. Mr Franklyn is also continuing to back gold. While he’s keeping an eye on China’s dwindling appetite for the precious metal, given that prices are near record highs, he believes geopolitical tensions enhance its safe-haven appeal. Argonaut owns shares in Gold Road Resources, Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining. Perth-based Perennial Partners also likes gold, as traders ramp up US interest rate cut bets and markets brace for a Donald Trump victory in the US presidential election, which could weigh on the US dollar. Gold producer Ora Banda is the largest holding in Perennial’s Natural Resources Fund. While gold stocks have materially underperformed the spot price of the precious metal due to escalating costs, Terra Capital is tipping that gap to close imminently, which should benefit Resolute Mining. “We’re heading into what should be strong quarterly results margin-wise and a seasonally strong period for the gold price from now until the end of the year,” portfolio manager Matthew Langsford said. Terra is also bullish on uranium prices heading into major producer Kazatomprom’s first-half results and 2025 guidance, which will be released next month. The firm likes NexGen Energy in that space. Coal watch “Industry supply/demand dynamics continue to look extremely attractive to us,” Mr Langsford said. “We believe that achieving a net-zero scenario can be realised with the utilisation of nuclear power.” Tribeca’s Ben Cleary also likes uranium and owns shares in Boss Energy and Lotus Resources. In the energy space, Perennial portfolio manager Sam Berridge is betting that the looming gas shortage in Victoria will benefit Cooper Energy, which is his fund’s second-largest holding. “Cooper is the only means of exposure to gas production in Victoria, which is where the gas needs to be produced,” he said. “And they have growth assets there which the market sorely needs.” Finally, Argonaut’s Mr Franklyn is watching metallurgical coal following the recent fire at Anglo-American’s Grosvenor mine in Queensland, which has further disrupted supply of the commodity. “There’s a few signals that global production is going to be curtailed and demand is firm, so it’s come out of the doldrums,” he said.
Illegal gold miners stranded underground by South Africa government 14 minutes ago South Africa's government refuses to help thousands of trapped illegal miners. In short: Hundreds of underground miners have been denied food and water as South African police try to coax them to the surface. Authorities believe the miners are undocumented migrants working illegally. What's next? Cabinet minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni vows not to help the miners, saying: "We are going to smoke them out." The South African government says it will not help a group of illegal miners inside a closed mine in the country's north-west province who have been denied access to basic supplies as part of an official strategy against illegal mining. The miners in the mineshaft in Stilfontein — about 150 kilometres south-west of Johannesburg — are believed to be suffering from a lack of food, water and other basic necessities after police closed off the entrances used to transport their supplies underground. It is part of the police's Vala Umgodi, or Close the Hole, operation, which includes cutting off miners' supplies to force them to return to the surface and be arrested. Volunteer rescue workers have been helping the miners. (AP: Jerome Delay) Police had earlier indicated that information received from those who recently helped bring three miners to the surface indicated that up to 4,000 miners may be underground. However, on Thursday afternoon, local time, police spokesperson Athlenda Mathe said that they believed the number was exaggerated and may be far less than that, estimating a figure of between 350 and 400 miners. "We feel that the numbers are being exaggerated. We have deployed maximum resources to this case including our intelligence operative who are on the ground who have engaged with all stakeholders," Ms Mathe said. "We have managed to estimate the numbers to be between 350 and 400." Miners stay underground for months South African ministers of police and defence were expected to visit the mine to engage with officials and community members on the ground, she said. Stilfontein is one of the mines targeted by police as they intensified their operation in the province of North West from October 18. It is unclear how long the current group of miners has been underground as groups are reported to often stay underground for months, depending on supplies of basic necessities like food and water from the outside. "We have taken a decision that no police officer, no soldier or government official will go down to an abandoned mine. There is a high risk of loss of life," Ms Mathe said. She said they had information that the miners may be heavily armed, adding that since embarking on operations against illegal miners since last December, police had seized more than 369 high-calibre firearms, 10,000 rounds of ammunition, 5 million rand ($423,000) in cash and 32 million rand worth of uncut diamonds. 'We are going to smoke them out' In the past few weeks, more than 1,000 miners have surfaced at various mines in North West province, with many reported to be weak, hungry and sickly after going for weeks without basic supplies. Police continued on Thursday to guard areas around the mine to catch all those appearing from underground. Cabinet minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni told reporters on Wednesday that the government would not send any help to the illegal miners because they were involved in a criminal act. "We are not sending help to criminals. We are going to smoke them out. They will come out. Criminals are not to be helped. We didn't send them there," Ms Ntshavheni said. Illegal mining remains common in South Africa's old gold-mining areas, with miners going in closed shafts to dig for any possible remaining deposits. The illegal miners are often from neighbouring countries, and police say the illegal operations involve larger syndicates that employ the miners. Their presence in closed mines has also created problems with nearby communities, which complain that the illegal miners commit crimes ranging from robberies to rape. Illegal mining groups are known to be heavily armed, and disputes between rival groups sometimes result in fatal confrontations. AP
"since last December, police had seized more than 369 high-calibre firearms, 10,000 rounds of ammunition, 5 million rand ($423,000) in cash and 32 million rand worth of uncut diamonds." But not one Bitcoin. Or DoggyCoin.
Humble rock eclipses iron ore price as aluminium smelters shop around Elouise Fowler Reporter Dec 16, 2024 https://www.afr.com/companies/minin...luminium-smelters-shop-around-20241212-p5ky03 The price of bauxite, the raw material required for producing aluminium, has surpassed the value of a tonne of iron ore for the first time, rallying to a record high on a supply crunch in Africa and surging demand from China. Benchmark prices for standard Guinea grade bauxite climbed to $US112 ($176) a tonne last week, marking a 59 per cent increase since January, according to the latest price index compiled by Adelaide-based CM Group. Iron ore last changed hands for $US104.80 a tonne in the Singapore futures market. Rio Tinto’s Gove bauxite export site in Australia’s Northern Territory. The outperformance of the junior ore reflects the divergent fortunes of China’s big economic forces: property and decarbonisation. Bauxite is refined into alumina and then smelted into aluminium. “If you rewind five years and told people bauxite prices would overtake iron ore in price, they’d have laughed you out of the room,” said Alan Clark, managing director of CM Group. “This highlights the contrasting trajectories of two critical global industries: aluminium and steel. Right now, one is soaring while the other is facing headwinds,” Mr Clark said. CM Group’s price index monitors trades from Guinea, the African nation known as the world’s largest and highest-grade supplier, and has been adopted as a preferred industry benchmark. Goldman Sachs has urged investors to prioritise aluminium over steel in 2025. That’s because Beijing’s stimulus is expected to boost demand for aluminium – required for electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels – rather than iron ore, as China participates in the energy transition. The supply crisis traces back to Indonesia implementing an export ban 2023, which was compounded this year when Guinea halted exports from Guinea Alumina Corporation, a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium, over a tax issue. GAC represents 4 per cent of global supply. Moreover, China’s domestic production has been stifled by environmental crackdowns, while Guinea’s rainy season has further hobbled shipments. And in Brazil, a vessel ran aground, blocking a bauxite shipping route in November, adding to anxiety over supply. “It’s impossible to predict when the bauxite rally might peak,” said Vivek Dhar, a commodity analyst at Commonwealth Bank. “This market was already a tinderbox before the Brazilian shipment got stuck.” China’s growing appetite While supply constraints have set the stage for the rally, demand dynamics have provided the fuel. China’s aluminium smelters, which dominate global production, have become increasingly reliant on imported bauxite to feed their operations. Around 80 per cent of the bauxite China uses is imported, according to analysis from Bank of America. The bulk of those imports are from Guinea, which enjoys close ties with Beijing. Guinean weekly bauxite shipments to China are running at all-time highs too, Bank of America found. “China may have access to feedstock, but it has to pay up for it,” the broker said. China’s reliance on the imported bauxite market is topical, with domestic supply falling short and new refineries rushing to secure material, CM Group told clients in a note last week. In particular, stockpiling efforts by producers Chalco and Wenfeng are buoying demand as they aim to build reserves ahead of their refinery launches, expected in the first quarter of 2025. The standoff in Guinea is amplifying fears among Chinese buyers, who are already anxious about the risks associated with Guinea’s grip on the bauxite trade, Mr Clark added. Australia has emerged as a key beneficiary of this dynamic thanks to Rio Tinto’s expansive mines in Queensland and the Northern Territory. Although Rio operates a vertically integrated supply chain that spans mining to aluminium smelting, its sales of bauxite to the open market make Australia the second-largest exporter. Australia’s export volumes will reach around 40 million tonnes this year, according to analysis by the Commonwealth’s Resources and Industry Department. Metro Mining, an ASX-listed producer, will supplement Australia’s output with around 6 million tonnes set to be exported from its Cape York mine by June next year. The price of Australian bauxite, despite its inferior grade, achieved a record $US88 a tonne on Wednesday, according to CM Group, from lows of around $US50 a tonne earlier in the year. Doug Ritchie, chairman of Metro Mining, said the price of Guinean bauxite prompted Chinese smelters to look more closely at Australia to diversify their supply. Chinese customers are increasingly willing to adapt their industrial processes to accommodate lower-grade Australian bauxite, he said. “We’ve expanded our customer base from one to three in China,” he said. “Selling bauxite is a long-term process,” Mr Ritchie said. “It requires aligning refinery capabilities with the material’s properties, which takes sustained dialogue and trust-building.” Funds pile in The rally has attracted institutional interest, with funds such as Ausbil and Perennial’s Strategic Natural Resources Trust cashing in. Metro Mining, which has soared 215 per cent in market value this year, was Perennial’s top performer, according to its latest investor update. The Ausbil strategy has succeeded in betting on Alcoa, which runs a mine mouth-to-refinery model in Australia. Alcoa’s stock has risen 19.4 per cent this year. Mr Dhar warned that soaring bauxite prices could test the patience of Chinese aluminium smelters. “Margins are being squeezed as raw material costs outstrip aluminium price gains,” Mr Dhar said. While aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange have risen 17 per cent over the past year, bauxite and alumina costs have surged 54 per cent and more than 100 per cent, respectively. “This margin pressure could force some smelters to curtail output if current dynamics persist,” Mr Dhar said.
Graphite is a non metal. It is the only non-metal that can conduct electricity and is the only non-metal that is a good conductor of electricity. Contrary to common belief, the chemical bonds in graphite are actually stronger than those that make up diamond. Synthetic and natural graphite are consumed on a large scale in many critical industries including refractories (50%), lithium-ion batteries (18%), foundries (10%), lubricants (5%), among others (17%). Under extremely high pressures and extremely high temperatures it converts to diamond. Graphite's low cost, thermal and chemical inertness and characteristic conductivity of heat and electricity finds numerous applications in high energy and high temperature processes. Despite being touted as one of the “critical minerals” essential for the energy transition, specifically lithium-ion batteries, graphite prices are currently at eight-year lows. Like rare earths, China controls around 98% of the graphite market. Natural graphite prices have been coming under intense pressure from unrelenting competition from the synthetic graphite sector, with massive capacity increases in China and price cutting for market share, making it incredibly difficult for natural graphite producers to compete in the market. The one bright spot in the market has been Europe, where the graphite market has enjoyed price premiums this year, reflecting geopolitical concerns and higher freight rates and indicating an emergence of ex-China market premiums, which is something that the market has really been looking for, so this is a positive development. However, overall, we’re seeing prices below operating costs for both new and existing producers, which is clearly an unsustainable situation, and we believe, as a result, prices are at or near a pricing floor. Graphite is the most widely used anode material in batteries. It’s the anode of choice for the battery industry. For the time being, we don’t see another material that will replace graphite.” However, most of graphite’s demand still comes from the steel sector – at least for now. The baton for graphite growth will really pass to the battery sector where anode material will drive a second rapid growth phase for this industry. The main point to make headlines was China’s ban on the export of gallium, germanium and antimony to the US, but the Chinese Ministry of Commerce also requested stricter review of end use for graphite items shipped to the US. This trade war with critical minerals is just heating up. With these export controls coming in from China, we expect to see that graphite price kick up, I imagine, as people who want to produce batteries outside of China will be looking for other sources of graphite.