Biden triples tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium, denies trade war Matthew Cranston United States correspondent Apr 18, 2024 https://www.afr.com/world/north-ame...nd-aluminium-denies-trade-war-20240418-p5fkoh Washington | US President Joe Biden dismissed concerns of a new trade war with China after declaring a tripling of tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium imports, a move which is unlikely to have any big impact on demand for Australia’s iron ore and coal. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and some senators told The Australian Financial Review that the US would monitor closely any impacts on Australian exports from the latest policy announcement directed towards China. “No trade war,” Mr Biden said on Wednesday (Thursday AEST) after announcing tariffs on certain Chinese steel and aluminium products would be tripled, to 25 per cent from of 7.5 per cent. Joe Biden has put tariffs on Chinese steel, which might have implications for Australia’s coal and iron exports. Bloomberg The populist, protectionist move, which adds to increases on similar tariffs under the Trump administration, is designed to woo steel industry workers in battleground states in November’s presidential election. Last month, Mr Biden said he would not support Nippon Steel’s proposed $US14.1 billion ($22 billion) acquisition of US Steel. “President Biden knows that steel is the backbone of the American economy,” the White House said in a statement. “American workers in the steel and aluminum industries face a significant challenge from Chinese exports of steel and aluminum.” The action, however, is largely symbolic, given US imports of Chinese steel and aluminium totalled just $US1.7 billion last year. Chinese steel accounts for only 1 per cent of America’s domestic supply, and aluminium for about 3.6 per cent of total imports. Mining giant Rio Tinto said this week that China’s domestic steel demand was at levels similar to last year, but that “steel exports rose 30 per cent year-on-year during the first two months [January and February] and are likely to remain historically elevated, in turn supporting iron ore demand”. The Biden administration says China’s overproduction is hurting America’s steel industry. The move is designed to woo steel industry workers in battleground states in November’s presidential election, where Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican candidate. AP “China’s overcapacity and non-market investments in the steel and aluminum industries mean high-quality US products have to compete with artificially low-priced alternatives produced with higher carbon emissions,” the White House said. China’s Foreign Ministry hit back, saying the “notion that China’s overcapacity harms the global market is a complete fallacy”. “Those who spread that narrative to justify protectionism have nothing to gain from it,” spokesman Lin Jian said. Australia is exempt from US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, but there are concerns a reduction in Chinese steel and aluminium exports could hurt demand for Australia’s iron ore, aluminium and coal used in the production process. Ms Tai said she was always thinking about Australia when taking these actions. “We have our own trade relationship with Australia. And trust me, in the interagency conversations, we are thinking up to the 10th order on things,” she told the Financial Review on the sidelines of a Congressional hearing into trade policy on Wednesday (Thursday AEDT). Potential longer-term effects Robert Dohner, who as a deputy assistant Treasury secretary helped establish the Strategic Economic Dialogue with China under the Bush and Obama administrations, said there could be some longer-term effect on Australian commodities. “It won’t have much effect on steel trade, but it may encourage other countries to raise their tariffs on imports of steel from China. If so, that could have a larger effect,” Mr Dohner said. Concerns about how this action on China might affect demand for Australian product, Democrat senator Sherrod Brown told the Financial Review after the trade hearing that “I don’t share your concerns.” Republican senator Steve Daines said he thought it was “important that the impact is clearly understood”. “We love Australia, it’s a great country, and Australia and the United States share so many of the same values. So anything that would harm Australia I’d be concerned about as it relates to tariffs,” Senator Daines said. “We have to keep working together with Australia being a key ally of the United States, and to keep the dialogue and discussion going.” Republican senator Bill Cassidy said Australia and US economic interests were “very closely aligned” and that instead of taking the action the Biden administration had with the latest steel tariffs, known as section 301, he would rather see a carbon border adjustment scheme. “China is effectively subsidising their industry by not enforcing environmental regulations. Now, there may be a little bit of collateral damage to a country like Australia. But I think, frankly, it’s in all of our interest that China compete on a fair on a fair basis,” Senator Cassidy said. “[Australia] sells a lot of natural gas, so a carbon border adjustment scheme is going to expand the market for natural gas because China’s cheapest way, the fastest way for them to clean up their air pollution is to substitute natural gas for coal. So I think that Australia would adapt very nicely in that regimen.”
BHP weighs potential takeover of Anglo American By Crystal Tse, Dinesh Nair and Thomas Biesheuvel April 25, 2024 https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...keover-of-anglo-american-20240425-p5fmfg.html BHP, the world’s largest miner, is considering a potential takeover of Anglo American, people with knowledge of the matter said, in what would rank as one of the year’s biggest deals. The mining giant has recently been evaluating the possibility of a bid for London-listed Anglo American, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential information. It would be a mega deal: BHP is eyeing Anglo American, people with knowledge of the matter said.Credit: Will Willitts Shares of Anglo American have fallen 12 per cent over the last 12 months, giving the company a market value of £27 billion ($52 billion). BHP, which trades in London and Sydney, has a market value of about $230 billion. Deliberations are at an early stage and there’s no certainty that BHP will decide to proceed with a deal, the people said. Representatives for BHP and Anglo American declined to comment. Anglo American reported a steep fall in 2023 profit and lowered its dividend after a slump in key commodities it produces. In recent months, it has written down the value of its De Beers diamond unit by $US1.6 billion and dramatically slashed its copper production goals. The company has also proposed cutting 3700 jobs across its South African platinum operations and took a writedown on its nickel business. More to come Bloomberg
Lynas boss leaves door ajar for rare earths mega-merger Brad Thompson Reporter Apr 24, 2024 https://www.afr.com/companies/minin...r-for-rare-earths-mega-merger-20240424-p5fm5b Lynas Rare Earths boss Amanda Lacaze has sung the praises of Gina Rinehart amid speculation about a potential mega-merger in the sector to create a Western world champion to challenge Chinese dominance. Mr Lacaze said Mrs Rinehart was welcome on the Lynas register after pushing her stake to 5.82 per cent this month, hot on the heels of emerging as a big shareholder in New York-listed MP Materials. Lynas Rare Earths boss Amanda Lacaze says a time may come when a merger makes sense. Bloomberg Earlier this year, Lynas and MP Materials held merger talks that came amid consolidation among state-owned rare earth producers in China, which has threatened to cut off supply to the Western world during flash points in its relationship with the US. Mrs Lacaze said on Wednesday that Lynas was one of two producers in the world making money at the current low price for rare earths. Lynas estimates China’s Northern Rare Earths is profitable at the current low prices but that every other producer is breaking even or losing money. Asked about the prospect of consolidation outside of China, including a deal between Lynas and MP, Mrs Lacaze left the door ajar. “We have talked about the value of having a Western rare earths champion with real critical mass,” she said. “For whatever reasons, as it turned out the time was not quite right, but that doesn’t mean that it won’t be at some stage.” Lynas and Las Vegas-based MP are the world’s two biggest producers of rare earths outside of China. Both have the backing of the US Department of Defence to build processing plants in Texas to produce rare earth materials essential in modern weapons systems, electronics and in the renewable energy sector. Ms Lacaze refused to comment on whether US defence chiefs and government leaders had encouraged a merger. Mrs Rinehart’s private company, Hancock Prospecting, forked out $49 million for a big chunk of Lynas stock in mid April. It has a 5.3 per cent in MP as well as positions in other rare earths stocks. The big step up in her Lynas holding fuelled speculation Australia’s richest person may emerge as a kingmaker in any mega-merger. Mrs Lacaze said she admired Mrs Rinehart’s success, her approach to business and her commitment to mining. “I admire her not just because she’s managed to convert what she does into an enormous amount of wealth. It is the way that she runs her businesses, the way that she treats her people and the way that she gives back to the community,” the Lynas boss said. “I think that Ms Rinehart does an awful lot of good. The mining industry basically pays Australia’s way, so having people who really are committed to the industry, committed to developing the industry, is really important.” Mrs Rinehart has not commented publicly on her Lynas investment or whether she has any intentions to back consolidation in the sector. Mrs Lacaze said Lynas was vindicated in withholding rare earths supply in the March quarter with prices at low levels and would continue with the strategy until prices improved. Lynas reported gross sales revenue of $101.2 million for the quarter, down from $242.8 million for the same time last year, which it said reflected the low average neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) price of $US47 per kilogram. Lynas withheld all mixed heavy rare earths inventory and about 500 tonnes of NdPr. “While this has resulted in lower revenue for the period, it should enable Lynas to achieve better value over time, as market prices have started to improve in April,” it said. The company also revealed a $70 million blow-out to $800 million in the cost of building a new cracking and leaching plant at Kalgoorlie that is almost complete. Lynas said the blow-out would be covered from its existing cash balance and fall within its $600 million capital expenditure envelope for 2023-24.
Never forget, everything is not what it seems. Or at least, what we're told. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/natural-resources-ukraine-war-1.6467039 Critical mineral superpower Ukraine has the potential to become a "critical mineral superpower," according to a recent evaluation by SecDev, an Ottawa-based research and analysis think-tank. The country ranks fourth globally in terms of total assessed value of natural resources, with roughly $15 billion in annual output and a potential "assessed value [that] could be as high as $7.5 trillion," according to the report. Beyond that, Ukraine is thought to have the largest supply of recoverable rare earth resources in Europe, although much of it is undeveloped. Rare earth minerals (cerium, yttrium, lanthanum and neodymium) and alloys are used in many devices people use every day, such as computer memory, rechargeable batteries, cellphones and much more.
A screen shot of BHP on Finviz site. What I like is how finviz project s/r lines, trend lines, MA's onto a chart, it makes it easier to gain a quick perspective. BHP the largest listed mining stock is a good bellwether for mining commodities. It is difficult to trade as it frequently gaps. Look at the volatility around Sept October last year. Currently BHP appears to be on struggle street most likely due to offering to buy out Anglo American. Expect this to drag on some weeks while it makes higher bids and negotiates which parts of Anglo it does and doesn't want.
%% Long term/most metals, copper , tin ,old scrap union made autos/ up; but gold has such wild swings i seldom do that one
Yup, gold trades like currencies imo, difficult as it breaks many TA rules. But then for me the irony is bitcoin is a currency but find it not too tricky to trade, it appears more easier to trade than gold, besides the fact it moves fast so when you're on the right side it well and truly pays. Back on subject of metals, lithium got a bit of a rocket today. Looking at a number of lithium stocks, we are imo breaking out from the bottom. PILBF (PLS on ASX) is my suggestion on lithium in USA, but there are many others.
%% I like my cash metals business , almost bought a copper ETF this week; but i also like cash copper, brass, metals...... in my business, better . I get part of the bid/ask, profits, with no ETF management fee Easier to scale a good ETF however.......
Iluka boss calls out China’s infiltration of rare earths in Australia Brad Thompson Reporter May 7, 2024 https://www.afr.com/companies/minin...n-of-rare-earths-in-australia-20240507-p5fplq Iluka Resources managing director Tom O’Leary has accused China of rigging rare earths prices so that producers cannot make money, as it tries to advance its grip on the world’s mineral deposits. Mr O’Leary said there were clear efforts by Chinese state-owned entities to control rare earths deposits and production, including in Western Australia and Victoria. Iluka Resources managing director Tom O’Leary. Trevor Collens “This is taking place via a number of binding offtake agreements with various companies, and via ownership, as in the well documented case of Northern Minerals,” he said. Mr O’Leary said the entire industry was unprofitable as China manipulated prices to further its stranglehold on the supply of minerals essential in defence, electronics and the transition away from fossil fuels. “No participant, regardless of geography, is making any money at today’s prices,” he said. ASX-listed Lynas has previously claimed it was the only profitable producer outside China. Iluka is further convinced pricing provided by Asian Metal indices, which are relied on by producers, is rigged. “Linking prices to the Asian Metals index only further entrenches China’s market power,” he said on Tuesday. Mr O’Leary’s attack comes amid uncertainty over the future of a part-built rare earths refinery in WA and a protest lodged by the Albanese government over an incident at the weekend involving an Australian navy helicopter and Chinese fighter jet. Iluka is locked in talks with Labor about more taxpayer support to finish building Australia’s first rare earths refinery after a cost blowout taking its price tag up to $1.8 billion. Iluka is building the refinery at Eneabba with $1.25 billion in taxpayer-funded finance. The company has acknowledged the government is “extremely unlikely” to advance all of the money needed. The government has made a two-way bet on rare earths by allocating more than $800 million in loans and grants to the Gina Rinehart-backed Arafura Resources and its Nolans project in the Northern Territory. Iluka said it was under pressure from some shareholders to monetise a stockpile of rare earths material left behind by its mineral sands mining by selling it to China. Selling the stockpile, valued at more than $1 billion and put up as security in return for the current taxpayer backing, would involve unwinding the entire refinery deal between Iluka and the government. A compromise appears likely, with Mr O’Leary and Iluka chairman Rob Cole telling shareholders at the annual general meeting in Perth on Tuesday they remained confident in the long-term value of diversifying into rare earths. Iluka has no plans to sell its 20 per cent stake in $2.5 billion spin-off Deterra Royalties to help meet the funding shortfall on Eneabba. Mr O’Leary said China’s influence over rare earths went beyond its reach in other critical minerals such as lithium, or even titanium and zircon, which Iluka mines too. “While China is a significant customer of all these commodities, they are all produced in material quantities in countries outside China. For rare earth oxides, China accounts for approximately 90 per cent of all production, and for the key heavy rare earths, effectively 100 per cent. “It is this monopolistic production, combined with interference in pricing, that is resulting in market failure, and rare earths are among very few metals where China has demonstrated a preparedness to weaponise its control.” The Australian Financial Review revealed in November that a company accused of covert attempts to gain control of Northern Minerals and its strategically important heavy rare earths project in WA had ties to two Chinese conglomerates. Lynas Rare Earths boss Amanda Lacaze entertained merger talks with her US equivalent, MP Materials, to create a Western champion in rare earths. She has said only Lynas and China’s Northern Rare Earths were profitable at current market prices.