Which way? Metals

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by themickey, Dec 10, 2020.

  1. themickey


    Thought to run a new thread on metals. I live in Western Australia, this state is the most mining friendly and prosperous, the economy here is driven by mining and is the home to numerous large and small companies, also oil & gas, coal not so much.
    The news here is all about mining so I hope to give a balanced view on metal trends and interests.
    I will not cover gold too much as that is covered in another thread; https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/which-way-gold.335256/

    To kick things off, today Nickel looks like it's going to fire off into a possible super cycle.
    Now Nickel has been underperforming for some time, it's a beast, goes thru booms and busts.The Poseidon boom was a period in Australian history where nickel and Poseidon's shares went gang busters for while, tulip mania type thing.

    Nickel processing is extremely expensive, huge maintenance costs involved, nickel is very troublesome due to its toughness/hardness.
    Valves and pipes in the production process are subject to extreme errosion, wear & tear.
    Mining/production companies regularly go bust.

    Anyhow, just for now, the spotlight is on nickel price breakout.
    Nickel futures on barcharts is code Q0*0 while the cash component is P7Y00.
    For looking at a chart another view is to look at ETF's JJN & NICK.LN(London exchange)

    Nickel is/will be expected to be a major future EV battery component.

    In Australia, Western Areas company is a major pureplay nickel producer.
    It looks like we're late to the party, but I don't think so, it's just warming up imo.
    murray t turtle, Snuskpelle and Baron like this.
  2. better returns investing in the EV stocks than nickel etfs
    themickey likes this.
  3. themickey


    The mention of Nickel ETF's was meant that these are good bellwethers on Nickel trend, not for trading directly.
    And yes for USA residents, trading EV stocks would be the way, but in Australia (for me), nigh on impossible for a few reasons.
    No EV companies listed or in existance in Aust.
    I don't wish to get caught up in US taxation system nightmare trading US stocks.
    More important I trade via a 401k/IRA type situation and the way it's structured very limited where and what I can trade.

    But I appreciate your point, Technology / EV's would be near the top of preferences rather than the metals directly, if a trader has the access.
  4. try ECAR on the LSE - it's been rippping and I've been long since 4.87 and just recently made a high of 7.00

    JJN's liquidity is sh!te

    NICK.LN is ok, but will only buy that on deep retraces for medium term holding periods

    the thing with nickel, once prices get too high, the indonesions start increasing production.
    you always read there is tightness but these guys have unregistered stock piles up the wazoo, especially china
    themickey and Snuskpelle like this.
  5. themickey


    Uranium stocks on the move as US Senate approves reserve bill
    The US will establish a national strategic uranium reserve after a bipartisan bill was passed by the US Senate.


    Uranium prices have risen to their highest point in nearly five years after a bill to create a national US uranium reserve was passed by the US Senate.

    US intitiatives
    On that day, the US Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works approved a bill that advances a federal initiative to establish a national, strategic uranium reserve. It had bipartisan support.

    This is good news for uranium suppliers, particularly those who plan to sell uranium to the US Department of Energy.

    Under the new American Nuclear Infrastructure Act, the DOE will only be able to buy uranium recovered from facilities licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission or equivalent agreement state agencies.

    Importantly, it will exclude companies owned, controlled or subject to jurisdictions in China or Russia from selling uranium to the US.

    US uranium reserve
    The act will see the US create a uranium reserve, securing the country’s nuclear fuel supply chain, and has boosted optimism in the sector.

    Uranium prices had risen 1.7 per cent by the end of last week and have risen nearly 20 per cent in 2020 to date, making it one of the best-performing commodities of the year.

    The US Democrat party, which will take power in January under incoming president Joe Biden, finalised a climate change platform in August that included existing and advanced nuclear technologies within the ‘technology-neutral’ approach it will take to decarbonise the power sector.

    The US is the world’s highest uranium consumer.

    Uranium stocks to consider: CCJ, TSE:EFR, UUU, UEC, TSE: DML
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2020
    zghorner and ballsofgold like this.
  6. Nine_Ender


    Copper miners have been rallying since March but went through a minor correction this week. Remains to be seen if the rally will start up again or not, Copper itself is still quite high. I think anytime energy gets to be a trending, popular trade, it works against the speculative trade on miners ( and vice versa ). So I like to be in both as a kind of rough hedge against overnight surprises ( in either direction ).
    murray t turtle likes this.
  7. themickey


    Silver is an industrial metal as well as precious metal, it's putting on a strong move atm.
    Once above $26, expect it to put on a serious march upward.
    Silver is a chemical element with the symbol Ag.
    Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead and zinc mining/refining.
    Silver is used in solar panels.
    My call, the move will happen about Christmas day period and thereafter.

    Dont be left behind :)
    murray t turtle likes this.
  8. Nine_Ender


    I'm expecting a spike to $50-$70 at some point next year. Silver mining stocks are cheap right now, even if it just stays in the $20s, but a test of $32-$34 seems inevitable. May be best value play left in NA markets.
    murray t turtle likes this.
  9. which silver mining stocks are you looking at
  10. themickey


    These are on my list for USA, don't know of any others which are more toward the pure silver plays.
    FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc
    WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp
    AEM Agnico Eagle Mines
    SLV iShares Silver Trust Silver ETF
    SIL Global X Silver Miners Silver ETF
    PAAS Pan American Silver Corp.
    MAG MAG Silver Corp
    AG First Majestic Silver Corp.
    SILV SilverCrest Metals Inc
    SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc
    #10     Dec 18, 2020
    murray t turtle likes this.