Recently, after years of trading, I finally ask myself this question before I place any option trade. When I am right, selecting the option strategy is easy and the results are pain-free. When I am wrong, I lose. So, now I am trying to improve my VIX forecasting using reversion theory. Take the current situation. Two weeks ago, I believed that VIX would be flat or go lower..so I placed bull put spreads. I lost. I didn't really pay close attention to the VIX chart. At the time, the VIX was way below its six-month mean of 24. I should have realized this, and went with a long volatility strategy (long straddles, for example). I could have rode this trade up when the VIX finished around 28--it reverted to the mean and exceeded it. As of today, the VIX has dropped about 6.70% below its mean. Question: Will the VIX continue toward its lows only to revert back to the mean? I seems easier to forecast VIX than the underlying. Is VIX really that cyclical and predictable? Am I missing anything? If the VIX will continue downward, then obviously a short volatility strategy (like a long Iron Butterfly, short straddle, etc) would be called for. I would appreciate any comments, for I feel this is probably the most important aspect of options trading.