Friday a very strong upday, hoping this is the double bottom formation. Not much more I can add, nigh on everything was looking strong, just gotta let it play out. I don't have a lot of conviction but that means diddly squat as when I do have conviction I'm often wrong and when no conviction, wrong often again. Sometimes perception is misleading and dull to reality.
Investors overwhelmingly believe the S&P 500 has yet to bottom for this drawdown, a survey shows Henry Simpson Source : www.cnbc.com According to a survey published by Deutsche Bank, investors believe the bottom has not yet been reached. Less than one in 10 investors expect the S&P 500 to bottom as early as June, according to a survey by the investment bank’s Jim Reid. More than half of the survey participants, 58%, expect the bottom to be reached in the next year or beyond. The S&P 500 posted a closing low of 3,666.77 on June 16th. The broader market index then rose as much as 17.4% through mid-August before falling from those levels. And a majority of investors think more pain is yet to come. In September, 74% of traders expect markets to hit 3,300 first, up slightly from the 72% who expected the same in June. After that, some expect the S&P 500 to hit an all-time high of 4,500. A drop to 3,300 means potential downside of 18% from Friday close. Traders are expecting the broader market index to retest June lows ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve Board meeting. Central bank policymakers are widely expected to approve a third straight rate hike of 75 basis points to fight inflation. Here are some other investor expectations, according to Deutsche Bank’s survey: Investors expecting the 10-year Treasury yield to hit 5% before 1% are up. 73% of investors this month predicted the benchmark Treasury bond yield would hit 5% initially, compared to 60% of investors who expected the same in June. More and more people believe that the Fed is on the right track when it comes to raising interest rates. Thirty-seven percent of respondents in September believe the central bank “will get it about right,” compared to just 17 percent who said the same thing in April. Regardless, eight in 10 respondents expect a recession to happen in 2023, while those who think a downturn is imminent this year have halved, from 20% to 10%. Markets were restless in anticipation of the Fed’s next monetary policy move. Stocks rallied Monday afternoon as all three major moving averages continued to recover after suffering a three-week losing streak on Friday.
.....and then we have this perspective...... Inflation ‘collapse’ will launch powerful market rally, Credit Suisse predicts Published Mon, Sep 12 2022 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/inf...ark-big-stock-market-gains-credit-suisse.html Stephanie Landsman@stephlandsman Major market rally ahead due to inflation ‘collapse,’ predicts Credit Suisse Credit Suisse expects the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes sooner than widely expected due to tumbling inflation. According to the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist, it will launch a powerful market breakout. “This is actually what’s being priced into the market broadly,” Jonathan Golub told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “Every one of us sees when we go to the gas station that the price of gasoline is down, and oil is down. We see it even with food. So, it really is showing up in the data already. And, that’s a really big potential positive.” In a new note previewing this week’s August CPI and PPI data, Golub contends the inflation “collapse” will happen over the next 12 to 18 months. “Futures indicate that Food and Energy prices should fall -5.7% and -11.8% by year end 2023, while Goods inflation has declined from 12.3% to 7.0% since February,” he wrote. “Over the past year, Services and Rents are up less than Headline CPI (5.5% and 5.8% vs. 8.5%).” Golub expects signs of an inflation breakdown will force the Fed to stop hiking rates. His time frame: Over the next four to six months. “The market believes that come the first quarter, if we continue to go on this glide path where things renormalize, that they’re going to either pause or signal that they might pause,” he said. “If they do that the stock market wants to move ahead of it. The stock market is really going to take off.” And, now may be a strategic time to look for opportunities. Golub particularly likes consumer goods, industrials, refiners and integrated oil producers. “Valuations on the market are somewhere between fair and inexpensive right now, meaning there’s more upside from p/e [price to earnings] multiples,” he added. Golub’s S&P 500 year-end target is 4,300, which implies a roughly 5% gain from Monday’s close. The index is up almost 8% over the past two months. However, the S&P is still off about 15% from its record high.
Markets Thursday US had a wrecking ball go through them, hardly anything left unscathed. The exceptions were Healthcare and Gaming weren't hit too hard and Banking was the standout. Now Banks are highly correlated to the major indexes or the market health in general, so this is my feeling. Fridays US are often strong days as of late, so maybe tomorrow will be an upday and what we are seeing atm is a shakeout of weak hands. S&P500 black, VFH Vanguard Financials ETF indigo, IYF - US Ishares financials ETF green
Wall Street Rush Into Single-Stock ETFs Takes Risky Foreign Turn Issuers have planned 129 products targeting overseas companies Traders could get easy exposure to shares unbound by US rules Workers on Wall Street near the New York Stock Exchange.Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg By Elaine Chen 18 September 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...fs-takes-risky-foreign-turn?srnd=premium-asia Wall Street watchdogs already concerned about the risks of single-stock ETFs won’t like what’s coming next: funds offering exposure to individual foreign shares unbound by US listing standards. Issuers have filed plans for at least 129 ETFs targeting non-US companies in the past month, most of which don’t have depository receipts trading on American exchanges. That generally means the underlying firms don’t have to meet the same financial reporting standards as a US-listed business. It raises the prospect of American investors gaining easy access to foreign companies whose finances may not be fully transparent -- putting people at risk of making ill-informed trades. “It seems problematic to allow exchange trading on products that contain nothing but unvarnished exposure to companies that can’t normally be traded on those exchanges,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. The US tends to have more stringent rules than other countries, and those standards “are designed to ensure that companies offer adequate disclosure of a company’s profits, losses and risks,” he said. The proposed funds are still under review, meaning the US Securities and Exchange Commission could yet block them. However, it’s unclear whether that will happen. Regulators were vocally unhappy with the very idea of single-stock exchange-traded funds, but didn’t prevent the launch of the first products in July. Since then, about two-dozen have debuted. The SEC declined to comment. Big Names The planned funds come from three issuers -- Roundhill Investments, Kelly Intelligence and Tema Global Ltd. -- and mostly target well-known large-cap names like Samsung Electronics Co., Saudi Aramco and Tencent Holdings Ltd. Will Hershey, CEO of Roundhill, said the proposed ETFs make sense for investors since such large companies have robust investor relations and are already held by many thematic or country-specific funds. He noted that institutional investors with prime brokerage relationships are already able to invest in them -- the ETFs would simply expand access to retail investors. Kevin Kelly, CEO of Kelly Intelligence, said the new products “can be helpful capital market tools for US investors.” Issuer Number of Proposed ETFs Roundhill Investments 33 Kelly Intelligence 31 Tema Global Limited 65 At this stage, only Tema has filed plans that go beyond large-cap names. It has proposed products that track several smaller-cap companies based in India and Indonesia like Zomato Ltd., Marico Ltd. and Bank Jago. The firm is also focusing on some Chinese companies that already have receipts listed in the US, such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Baidu Inc. Those names are among the roughly 200 Chinese companies that currently face the prospect of being delisted if they don’t allow American regulators to fully review their audits. Tema may be planning the funds in anticipation that the companies’ receipts will be removed from exchanges, said Athanasios Psarofagis, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst. Maurits Pot, portfolio manager of the Tema products, declined to comment. ‘Particular Risk’ Facing an increasingly saturated ETF market, issuers have been rushing to launch single-stock products since the first breakthrough funds arrived in July. That batch delivered leveraged or inverse exposure on the daily performance of several major US companies. They were greeted with warnings from SEC officials. Chair Gary Gensler said the ETFs “present particular risk,” while Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw cautioned investment advisors against recommending them to retail traders. Yet -- presumably because the funds didn’t break any rules -- they were able to list. It’s unclear if the outcome will be the same for the proposed ETFs, which provide one-to-one exposure to foreign companies through swaps. Regulators “would be concerned about whether there was sufficient disclosure about the underlying company to US investors,” said Chris Schell, a capital markets lawyer and partner at Davis Polk & Wardwell. “The SEC would review any ETF like that quite carefully.” Sosnick of Interactive Brokers said even though the risks of ETFs that track well-known, large-cap companies aren’t likely to be high, his concern is that allowing the products would pave the way for funds tracking smaller, more opaque companies. “It will be interesting to see how the SEC staff responds to the volume of filings,” said Aisha Hunt, a lawyer specializing in ETFs and principal of Kelley Hunt. “I would think that the staff would contemplate to what extent other floodgates might be opened with certain other types of exposure.”
‘Dr Doom’ Nouriel Roubini expects ‘long, ugly’ recession and a plunge on Wall Street By Natalia Kniazhevich September 21, 2022 https://www.smh.com.au/business/mar...-a-plunge-on-wall-street-20220921-p5bjok.html Economist Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, sees a “long and ugly” recession in the US and globally at the end of 2022 that could last all of 2023 and predicts sharp losses on Wall Street. “Even in a plain vanilla recession, the S&P 500 can fall by 30 per cent,” said Roubini, chairman and chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates, in an interview on Monday. In “a real hard landing,” which he expects, it could fall 40 per cent. Roubini sees a stagflation like in the 1970s and massive debt distress as in the global financial crisis.Credit:Jason Alden Roubini, whose prescience on the housing bubble crash of 2007 to 2008 earned him the nickname ‘Dr Doom’, said that those expecting a shallow US recession should be looking at the large debt ratios of corporations and governments. As rates rise and debt servicing costs increase, “many zombie institutions, zombie households, corporates, banks, shadow banks and zombie countries are going to die,” he said. “So we’ll see who’s swimming naked.” Roubini, who has warned that global debt levels will drag down markets, said achieving a 2 per cent inflation rate without a hard landing is going to be “mission impossible” for the Federal Reserve. He expects a 75 basis points rate hike at the current meeting and 50 basis points in both November and December. That would lead the Fed funds rate by year’s end to be between 4 per cent and 4.25 per cent. However persistent inflation, especially in wages and the service sector, will mean the Fed will “probably have no choice” but to hike more, he said, with funds rates going toward 5 per cent. On top of that, negative supply shocks coming from the pandemic, Russia-Ukraine conflict and China’s zero COVID tolerance policy will bring higher costs and lower economic growth. This will make the Fed’s current “growth recession” goal -- a protracted period of meager growth and rising unemployment to stem inflation -- difficult. ‘Many zombie institutions, zombie households, corporates, banks, shadow banks and zombie countries are going to die.’ ‘Dr Doom’ Nouriel Roubini Once the world is in recession, Roubini doesn’t expect fiscal stimulus remedies as governments with too much debt are “running out of fiscal bullets.” High inflation would also mean that “if you do fiscal stimulus, you’re overheating the aggregate demand.” As a result, Roubini sees a stagflation like in the 1970s and massive debt distress as in the global financial crisis. “It’s not going to be a short and shallow recession, it’s going to be severe, long and ugly,” he said. Roubini expects the US and global recession to last all of 2023, depending on how severe the supply shocks and financial distress will be. During the 2008 crisis, households and banks took the hardest hits. This time around, he said corporations, and shadow banks, such as hedge funds, private equity and credit funds, “are going to implode” In Roubini’s new book, “Megathreats,” he identifies 11 medium-term negative supply shocks that reduce potential growth by increasing the cost of production. Those include deglobalisation and protectionism, relocating of manufacturing from China and Asia to Europe and the US, the ageing of population in advanced economies and emerging markets, migration restrictions, a decoupling between the US and China, global climate change and recurring pandemics. “It’s only a matter of time until we’re going to get the next nasty pandemic,” he said. His advice for investors: “You have to be light on equities and have more cash.” Though cash is eroded by inflation, its nominal value stays at zero, “while equities and other assets can fall by 10 per cent, 20 per cent, 30 per cent.” In fixed income, he recommends staying away from long duration bonds and adding inflation protection from short-term treasuries or inflation index bonds like TIPS. Bloomberg
This stock market strategist says the coming recession could be the biggest ever. ‘I recommend prayer.’ Jonathan Burton Tue, October 4, 2022 https://finance.yahoo.com/m/af606b37-99f2-3e9d-8770-10b7a4590cf1/this-stock-market-strategist.html This stock market strategist says the coming recession could be the biggest ever. ‘I recommend prayer.’ 'I’m about as bearish as I’ve been since 2008,' says Hedgeye's Keith McCullough. He's steering investors to cash, gold and other defensive plays. ................................................................................................................ Go for it dropkick!
Lithium stocks as an investment...... Looks like a breakout on S/R. I'm suspicious, thinking the large lithium moves today might be a dummy. Could be wrong but....