Which way? Gold.

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by themickey, Aug 20, 2019.

  1. themickey

    themickey

    The Epicenter of China’s Gold Craze Is a Former Fishing Village
    Demand for the precious metal has shoppers flocking to a jewelry hub in Shenzhen.

    By Chongjing Li and Alfred Cang October 31, 2024
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-to-a-massive-jewelry-hub?srnd=homepage-asia

    In a cavernous multistory mall, customers jostle for space amid endless rows of glass display cabinets that glimmer under the bright lights. The space thrums with excitement as shoppers gaze down at bracelets, rings, necklaces and other finely crafted treasures.

    Welcome to Shuibei in Shenzhen, a former fishing village in southern China that’s become the epicenter of the nation’s voracious appetite for gold, and a street-level barometer of economic and market forces impacting demand. More than 10,000 businesses are clustered across several city blocks, a labyrinth of opulence that’s among the largest gold retail markets in the world.
    The items on display are an increasingly important store of value amid China’s stock market volatility and the freefall of its property sector. Such safe-haven appeal saw the nation beat India as the world’s top consumer of gold jewelry last year and contributed to a record rally in global prices. Gold has surged above $2,700 an ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions, violence in the Middle East and the prospect of lower US interest rates.
    A stroll around the bustling area of Shenzhen, a city of almost 18 million people, offers an insight into China’s enduring passion for the precious metal, even as a struggling economy and record prices have hurt sales in recent months. Chinese traditionally gift gold to loved ones to bring them luck, and on a weekend in late October, old and young alike clamored for bargains. Couples shopped for wedding rings, doting grandparents searched for heirloom gifts and teenagers scouted out high-end fashion accessories.
    Consumers are shopping for gold jewelry at the Shuibei International Jewelry Trading Center. More than 10,000 jewelry businesses are clustered across several city blocks.Photographer: NurPhoto/Getty Images
    Struggling Economy
    Laura Ye, who runs a jewelry store in the area, said business was slower than last year. “With the overall economy down this year, every industry is feeling it,” she said. But even amid rising prices, “people are rushing to buy gold.” There are “endless traffic jams” and even finding a space to park an e-bike can be difficult, Ye added.

    Twenty-something friends Dai and Wei appeared undeterred by the high prices and gloomy economy.
    “I also invest in funds, but they’ve been a disaster,” said Wei with a wry smile, after buying a pair of hoop earrings weighing about 10 grams. “The market spiked Friday, so I recouped a bit. Now I’m back to buying gold for security and to refresh my collection.”

    Dai said she had a “sudden awakening” on the appeal of gold about two years ago when she noticed the rising prices. “I’ve bought gold about three times this year,” she said, as she sat by a shop window picking out tiny earrings for one of her friends. “I usually stick to smaller pieces, around five to six grams” which are affordable on her 7,000 yuan ($980) monthly salary. Like Wei, she only wanted to give her family name due to privacy concerns.
    Shuibei’s sprawling market, which is about a one-hour trip from Hong Kong by high-speed train, sells more than 100 billion yuan of jewelry a year, according to district authorities. It is also the largest manufacturing and processing hub for gold jewelry in China, responsible for about 70% of production. Security is tight, with clusters of CCTV cameras trained on each stall.
    Its draw lies in competitive pricing, which often undercuts established brands. Jewelry here is sold on a simple formula of a base gold price pegged to the exchange benchmark and a craftsmanship fee of around 10 yuan per gram.
    Shuibei is the country’s largest manufacturing and processing hub for gold jewelry in China.Photographer: NurPhoto/Getty Images
    The market’s popularity has been fueled by livestreamers, who are ubiquitous across Chinese social media platforms. Among them is Shuibei Little Fatty, who promotes the numerous bargains on offer to viewers across the country.

    “Hey, sisters! I’m at the Shuibei market in Shenzhen right now,” yells the appropriately named host, a somewhat plump, balding man in a purple T-shirt, in an Oct. 20 stream on the platform Douyin, China’s equivalent of TikTok. “Take a look at the big screen! Today’s live gold price is 623 (yuan per gram). If you’re not following me yet, hit that follow button!”
    His phone camera sweeps across the mall, its glass cases glittering. “Sundays are busy, but wait until 3:30 p.m. By then, it’s so packed that you can’t even move!” His voice rises with excitement, as the livestream captures the hum of bartering and the gleam of polished metal.

    “First order of the day! A sister from Shanghai snatched up a five-flower bracelet for only 10,000 yuan,” reads a Sept. 25 post from Little Fatty. It pictures a bracelet strikingly similar to a Van Cleef & Arpels Vintage Alhambra bracelet, which typically retail for almost 50,000 yuan.

    Another key attraction for Shuibei is the huge variety of items on offer across stores spread over more than 1,000 square meters. For one visitor, at least, it was all too much.
    “Three malls down, where next?” muttered a man, yawning as he dragged himself behind his partner, clearly worn out.

    Falling Sales
    Prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, China’s flagship precious metals bourse, had been more than $20 per ounce higher than the global benchmark in New York for most of the past year. But in recent months that premium has reverted to a discount. Jewelry consumption tumbled 29% to 130 tons in the third quarter, according to the China Gold Council.

    A stimulus blitz that kicked off in late September to support economic growth should ultimately boost gold demand again, according to Ray Jia, China research head for the World Gold Council. But he cautioned that appetite for gold investment “may face competition from other assets including equities and property as the economy recovers.”
    Analysts say the market outlook remains strong in a nation where gold is a symbol of wealth and prosperity and people buy jewelry as gifts for festivals and anniversaries. In many regions couples receive a four-piece set of jewelry including a ring, bangle, necklace and earrings on their betrothal.

    Song Jiangzhen, a researcher at Guangdong Southern Gold Market Academy, said consumers often delay or cut back on gold purchases when prices rise sharply. “However, this will not change the fundamentals of gold consumption in China,” he said.
    It’s a view shared by many visitors to Shuibei.

    “If I buy anything, it’s going to be gold,” said Luo Jiejing, a Shenzhen hotelier, as he stood outside the market. “It’s been around for thousands of years and holds its value. It is a rational choice.”

    — With assistance from Allen K Wan and Lulu Shen
     
    #481     Nov 1, 2024
  2. themickey

    themickey

    Billionaire Paulson Says Central Banks Will Keep Buying Gold

    Billionaire John Paulson, president and founder of Paulson & Co.Source: Bloomberg Television
    By Jacob Lorinc April 22, 2025
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...lson-says-central-banks-will-keep-buying-gold

    Central banks will keep buying gold in a push to diversify away from paper currencies amid political and economic upheaval, according to billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson.

    Paulson, one of the biggest bullion fans on Wall Street, says the precious metal is “moving to a new level of valuation” as investors flee from US stocks, bonds and the dollar to haven assets while an expanding global trade war casts a shadow over the economic outlook.
    “The trend will continue, and the voracity of that trend will depend on political developments,” Paulson said in an interview. Gold briefly topped $3,500 an ounce for the first time ever on Tuesday following President Donald Trump’s repeated calls on the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates immediately.

    The founder of Paulson & Co Inc. has long touted his preference for gold and is heavily invested in mining firms through his family office. The financier teamed up with Novagold Resources Inc. on Tuesday to buy out Barrick Gold Corp.’s 50% stake in an Alaskan gold project for $1 billion, betting on favorable conditions for major projects in the US under the Trump administration.

    Bullion is up about 30% this year, outperforming nearly every other major asset class. A surge of buying from central banks is what’s going to drive the speed of bullion price increases, Paulson said.

    “The primary driver of gold demand was central banks trying to increasingly diversify out of paper currencies and into gold as a reserve currency,” he said. “I don’t think that’s going to change.”

    — With assistance from Liana Baker
     
    #482     Apr 23, 2025
    nitrene and Sekiyo like this.
  3. themickey

    themickey

    In Dubai’s Gold Souk, bullion’s record run brings little joy for jewellers

    One impact from recent trade tensions with the US has been accelerated talk about finding alternative markets and production hubs.

    Tuesday 22/04/2025 https://thearabweekly.com/dubais-gold-souk-bullions-record-run-brings-little-joy-jewellers

    [​IMG]
    The shop window of a jewellery store in Dubai, March 10, 2025. (AFP) DUBAI

    In the bustling Gold Souk in Dubai, dubbed the “City of Gold,” 22-carat gold jewellery is a traditional favourite for weddings, religious celebrations and as a family investment.

    Yet with bullion prices hitting record highs above $3,400 an ounce, there are signs of change, as buyers look to diamonds and lighter gold jewellery, instead.

    While US tariffs and other factors have added fire to already hot demand for gold as an investment, the impact is different for gold jewellery, according to Andrew Naylor, head of Middle East and Public Policy at the World Gold Council (WGC).

    “In markets like Dubai, this creates a two-fold effect: on one hand, you see stronger interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, on the other, high prices dampen jewellery demand.”

    At Dubai’s Gold Souk, retailers said they are seeing this trend, as current prices prompt shoppers to look for alternatives.

    “There are no potential customers nowadays because of the gold prices,” said Fahad Khan, a sales representative at retailer Damas Jewellery.

    “It’s a little bit tough to afford gold, so I think it’s better to go with diamonds,” said Lalita Dave, 52, as she browsed around the Gold Souk.

    Lab-grown diamonds
    Dubai has been a magnet for gold buyers for at least 80 years, starting with Iranian and Indian traders, both cultures sharing a tradition of 22-carat jewellery for adornment and investment.

    Yet as gold prices rose 27 percent last year, demand for gold jewellery in the UAE fell by around 13 percent, outpacing an 11 percent drop globally, according to the WGC.

    Jewellery demand could face further pressure across key regions in 2025 if gold prices remain elevated or volatile, the WGC said in its gold demand trends report published in February.

    Price swings, more than price levels, are increasingly shaping consumer behaviour, particularly in India, it noted.

    Shifts in Indian purchasing patterns often ripple through Gulf markets such as the UAE, where buyers are a key driver of sales.

    Goldman Sachs recently raised its end-2025 gold forecast to $3,700 per ounce and said prices could climb as high as $4,500.

    “Higher gold prices are likely to dampen demand for jewellery, in a classic example of how the best cure for high prices is high prices,”‌ said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

    One sign of economising has been the rise of lab-grown diamonds.

    India exported $171 million worth of lab-grown diamonds to the UAE in 2024, up almost 57 percent from $109 million two years earlier, data from the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council showed.

    India’s exports of cut and polished diamonds to the UAE in the April-November 2024 were up 3.7 percent.

    UAE ranked third in global diamond imports in 2023, trade data shows, its primary trade partners including India, South Africa and Belgium.

    While the UAE accounted for just 1.5 percent of the global diamond jewellery market by revenue in 2023, it is projected to grow by 5.9 percent annually to reach nearly $2 billion by 2030, according to Grand View Research.

    That outpaces the global growth forecast of 4.5 percent and makes the UAE the fastest growing market in the Middle East and Africa.

    Trade tensions
    One impact from recent trade tensions with the US has been accelerated talk about finding alternative markets and production hubs, two executives at major Indian diamond exporters said.

    If tensions persist, potentially spanning years, one of the sources speaking on condition of anonymity said his company’s contingency plans included shifting some Indian production overseas, including to the UAE.

    Shamlal Ahamed, managing director of international operations at retailer Malabar Gold & Diamonds, said the rise in lab-grown diamond jewellery sales in the UAE appeared to be driven more by design preferences than pricing and he remained bullish on gold jewellery demand.

    “While price-conscious buyers may wait for a dip, our experience shows that such declines are often short-lived, with buyers quickly adapting to new price levels.”

    Written By Manya Saini
     
    #483     Apr 24, 2025
  4. themickey

    themickey

    Generally historically on ASX, the AUDUSD and XMM (mining index) are correlated as well as XGD (gold index).
    For AUDUSD proxy I use the FXA etf.

    Currently FXA, XMM, XGD are all bullish.
    XGD has been bullish about 2.5 years.
    FXA got clobbered in March as a shake out and snatch up move.
    XMM which is a stronger index to the TXBM (Toronto mining index) it went bullish last month with a similar shake out move.

    A global bellwether etf for metals and mining you can use is PICK.
    A global bellwether etf for gold price is GLD.
     
    #484     May 6, 2025
  5. themickey

    themickey

    SPY, QQQ, DIA are bearish in terms of swing trading.
     
    #485     May 6, 2025
  6. themickey

    themickey

    BTC (bitcoin) weak bullish.
     
    #486     May 6, 2025
  7. themickey

    themickey

    Barrick Is Now ‘B’ on the NYSE
    Press Release May 09, 2025
    https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2025/barrick-Is-now-B-on-the-NYSE/default.aspx

    [​IMG]
    Barrick Mining Corporation President and CEO Mark Bristow rings The Opening Bell® at the New York Stock Exchange on May 9, 2025. Barrick’s ticker symbol on the NYSE is now ‘B’. (Image courtesy of NYSE Group. NYSE does not recommend or endorse any investments, investment strategies, companies, products, or services.)

    New York — Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE:B)(TSX:ABX) is now trading under the single-letter ticker symbol ‘B’ on the New York Stock Exchange, reinforcing the Company’s position as a global gold and copper mining leader.

    In celebration of this milestone, Barrick president and chief executive Mark Bristow rang The Opening Bell® at the NYSE this morning.

    “Barrick’s vision is to be the world’s most valued gold and copper exploration, development and mining company. Along with our world-class portfolio of six Tier One gold mines, we are building a substantial copper business which will be a meaningful contributor to organically growing our production volumes in the coming years and beyond,” says Bristow.

    “Our new stock symbol ‘B’ better reflects Barrick’s current business and our mission to achieve sustainable and profitable gold and copper growth. Together, gold and copper give Barrick the stability of a precious metal and the growth potential of a strategic one — anchoring our portfolio in resilience and aligning us with rising global electrification and infrastructure demand. Gold is core to our business and we continue to explore for and develop new gold mines, including the expansion of Pueblo Viejo, the exciting Fourmile gold project in Nevada and the Reko Diq project, with its world-class mix of both copper and gold.”

    The Barrick common shares continue to trade under the ticker symbol ‘ABX’ on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The new CUSIP number for the Barrick common shares effective at the start of trading today is 06849F108.

    [​IMG]
    Barrick Mining Corporation President and CEO Mark Bristow visits the New York Stock Exchange on May 9, 2025 to celebrate the company trading under the single-letter ticker symbol ‘B’. (Image courtesy of NYSE Group. NYSE does not recommend or endorse any investments, investment strategies, companies, products, or services.)
    About Barrick Mining Corporation

    Barrick is a leading global mining, exploration and development company. With one of the largest portfolios of world-class and long-life gold and copper assets in the industry — including six of the world’s Tier One gold mines — Barrick’s operations and projects span 18 countries and five continents. Barrick is also the largest gold producer in the United States. We create real, long-term value for all stakeholders through responsible mining, strong partnerships and a disciplined approach to growth. Barrick shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ‘B’ and on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol ‘ABX’.
     
    #487     May 9, 2025
  8. themickey

    themickey

    [​IMG] MINING.COM
    Barrick drops ‘Gold’ from name as prices for the metal fuel profit
    Cecilia Jamasmie 2 days ago
    [​IMG]
    Barrick’s Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan. (Image courtesy of Barrick Mining.)

    Canada’s gold giant Barrick has officially changed its name to Barrick Mining Corporation, or Société Minière Barrick in French, and reported a stronger-than-expected first-quarter profit, fuelled by record gold prices.

    The shift, announced in April, received shareholder approval at the company’s annual and special meeting on May 6. The Toronto-based miner will switch its ticker on the New York Stock Exchange from GOLD to B as of May 9. Its shares will continue to trade under the ABX symbol on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

    The move signals a strategic shift for a company that became a dominant force in gold through bold acquisitions led by founder Peter Munk.

    Barrick is now positioning itself for a future shaped increasingly by copper. The company has two key projects that are on track for first production in 2028. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan, designed to produce 400,000 tonnes of copper and 500,000 ounces of gold per year in the second phase of its development. The other project, the Lumwana Super Pit in Zambia, will double the mine’s copper production over a mine life estimated at more that 30 years.

    Global demand for the metal is projected to climb sharply over the coming decades, with few new projects in the pipeline. Major miners are racing to diversify into copper amid forecasts of prolonged supply shortages.

    Ironically, the name change comes as gold prices hit record highs, pushing Barrick’s net income for the first quarter to $474 million, or 27 cents US per diluted share—up from $295 million, or 17 cents US, a year earlier. Revenue rose to $3.13 billion from $2.75 billion over the same period.

    President and chief executive Mark Bristow said the results underscore Barrick’s commitment to long-term, organic growth rather than relying on mergers and acquisitions.

    “We’ve built a global mining company with the financial strength, technical capacity and operational depth to grow organically,” Bristow noted. “While others pursue shortcuts through M&A, we continue to invest in our own future—by building and not just buying.”

    Gold prices soared past $3,100 per ounce in the first quarter of 2025, driven by safe-haven demand amid tariff tensions and inflation fears. The metal has jumped roughly 29% this year after a 27% gain in 2024.

    Once the world’s top gold producer, Barrick now ranks third globally. Its gold production in the first quarter of the year dropped to 758,000 ounces from 940,000 ounces a year earlier. Copper output, however, rose to 44,000 tonnes from 40,000 tonnes, reflecting the company’s growing focus on the metal.

    Changing of guard
    Barrick has formalized a succession plan for Bristow, the company announced during a quarterly earnings call. The South African, who has led the company since 2019, will remain in his role until 2028 to oversee a critical growth phase, including the development of Reko Diq.

    The company’s leadership transition plans come at a turbulent time, as it faces mounting challenges in Mali. Four Barrick employees remain detained in the African country amid a deepening dispute with the military-led government.
     
    #488     May 9, 2025
  9. Handle123

    Handle123

    Gold is used in jewelry, teeth, currencies. Is it still used in computers? What other commercial usages?
     
    #489     May 9, 2025
  10. deaddog

    deaddog

    ask google
     
    #490     May 9, 2025