Some good insight from the CME IMO, read full article: Gold's Next Move; Fed's Balancing Act By Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Gold's Path Linked to Fed's Next Move Investor expectations shift from more Fed rate hikes to possible rate cuts this summer Forging ahead with more rate hikes could impact already troubled banking sector Gold has two possible paths ahead linked to Fed moves, inflation, and the economy Options implied volatility indicates a stronger upside than downside risk in gold Read article https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2023/golds-path-intertwined-with-fed-rate-moves-inflation.html
Ok, this is not gold, but I didn't want to create another thread, so will post here... Amazon looks to grow diamonds in bid to boost computer networks Bloomberg News | April 5, 2023 Image courtesy of De Beers Group. Amazon.com Inc. is teaming up with a unit of De Beers Group to grow artificial diamonds, betting that custom-made gems could could help revolutionize computer networks. De Beers’s Element Six division will be working on the project with Amazon Web Services’ Center for Quantum Networking, a unit that’s seeking next-generation ways to transmit data securely over longer distances. Quantum networking uses subatomic matter to deliver data in a way that goes beyond today’s fiber-optic systems. The diamonds would be part of a component that lets the data travel farther without breaking down. Conventional signal repeaters can’t handle information in this form, known as qubits. Ultimately, this equipment could wind up in networks used by AWS, a provider of cloud computing services that accounts for the majority of Amazon’s profit. “We want to make these networks for AWS,” said Antia Lamas-Linares, who runs the Center for Quantum Networking. She estimates the technology will be in use within “years rather than decades.” Amazon handles a huge chunk of the world’s computing and information storage, so it wants to stay on top of any technology that may give it an edge over rivals Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google. For Element Six, the hope is to find a new application for industrial diamonds, which are prized for their hardness and ability to work as a lens. Using them in quantum computing — a nascent technology that promises to make data more secure — could be a big opportunity. The widespread use of quantum networking would require a massive amount of components, including specialized diamonds. Element Six recently opened a plant in Oregon that’s capable of producing as many as 2 million units of such a component per year using a technique called chemical vapor deposition. A diamond is the solid form of the element carbon. Its crystal structure makes it the hardest and most thermally conductive material occurring in nature. Diamonds also naturally pick up a limited number of impurities, such as nitrogen atoms, that give them color. Those impurities can be an asset with human-made diamonds. By creating gems with exactly the same impurities – and shaping them to align in the same way — they can work as repeaters in a quantum-based network. Ultimately, they also could help quantum computing have a wider impact. Such equipment will be needed to connect computers that are based on the same technology, allowing networks of quantum computers — long the realm of science fiction — to become a reality, Amazon researchers say.
'Rich Dad Poor Dad' Kiyosaki Unveils Ultimate Long-Term Bargain, and It Isn't Bitcoin Mon, 08/14/2023 Gamza Khanzadaev https://u.today/rich-dad-poor-dad-kiyosaki-unveils-ultimate-long-term-bargain-and-it-isnt-bitcoin Bitcoin advocate Robert Kiyosaki reveals ultimate long-term bargain Renowned author Robert Kiyosaki, best known for his best-seller "Rich Dad Poor Dad," has ignited a new debate among investors with his recent tweets. In a series of thought-provoking posts, Kiyosaki expressed his unwavering belief in the timeless value of gold and silver, signaling a preference for the latter as the ultimate long-term investment opportunity. Kiyosaki's X thread began with a fervent proclamation: "Gold and silver are God's money put on Earth by God." He highlighted the price discrepancy between the two precious metals, with gold commanding a significantly higher value than silver. He elaborated that silver, often viewed as an industrial asset, is growing scarcer due to increasing demand. This, according to Kiyosaki, positions silver as an exceptional deal for those eyeing long-term gains. The author's sentiments on gold were equally profound. Kiyosaki hailed gold as having "magical, spiritual, & mysterious power." He emphasized the centuries-long allure of gold and its symbolic representation of stored financial energy. Kiyosaki's belief in gold's ability to attract wealth, good fortune and even misfortune underscored his reverence for the precious metal. Bitcoin is nice too, though Interestingly, Kiyosaki's advocacy for gold and silver is in stark contrast to his affinity for Bitcoin, a digital asset he previously likened to the metals. In his views shared earlier, Kiyosaki expressed optimism about Bitcoin's future but simultaneously questioned its intrinsic value. He alluded to the volatility of BTC and its potential to be a speculative game rather than a genuine store of value. However, while Kiyosaki continues to trade Bitcoin, his recent tweets appear to crystallize his position on precious metals as a safer haven for long-term investment.
Is this perhaps the reason gold is beginning to climb, besides the fact of seasonality? October 20, 2023, Updated 6 hours ago China weighs options to blunt U.S. sanctions in a Taiwan conflict By Eduardo Baptista https://www.reuters.com/article/chi...-sanctions-in-a-taiwan-conflict-idUSL8N3BF631 BEIJING (Reuters) - In a war with the U.S. over Taiwan, China would need to create a global network of companies under U.S. sanctions, seize American assets within its borders, and issue gold-denominated bonds, according to Chinese government-affiliated researchers studying the Western response to Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions against Moscow have prompted hundreds of Chinese economists, financiers, and geopolitical analysts to examine how China should mitigate extreme scenarios, including loss of access to U.S. dollars, according to a Reuters review of more than 200 Chinese-language policy papers and academic articles published since February 2022. “In the context of intensified Sino-U.S. strategic competition and the Taiwan Strait conflict, we should be wary of the U.S. replicating this financial sanction model against China,” wrote Chen Hongxiang, a researcher at a branch of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) in eastern Jiangsu province. China, he said, should “prepare for a rainy day” to ensure its financial and economic stability. The specificity of the scenarios and potential countermeasures are being reported for the first time by Reuters. In assessing Russia’s experience, many of the researchers warn that China’s much larger economy and dependence on advanced foreign technology and commodity imports mean a sanctions fight with the West could be far more destructive. Some doubled down on the view that increasing interdependence could be a better approach than pulling up the shutters. Senior U.S. military officers have said that Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027. Beijing has not ruled out using force to take the island, though it has never shared details about war preparations. But discussions about U.S. sanctions, including from researchers within China’s foreign and financial policy establishment, surged 50% in the 12 months following the start of the war in Ukraine compared with the corresponding period a year earlier, according to a review of China National Knowledge Infrastructure, the country’s largest database of academic literature. “Analysing various possible scenarios and coming up with China’s prevention, response and countermeasures are undoubtedly a top priority for China’s policymakers,” Yu Yongding, an economist and former central bank adviser, wrote in a journal article in July 2022. Reuters contacted all the researchers named in this story directly or through their institutions but most declined to comment or did not respond. Yu referred Reuters to an op-ed he wrote on decoupling. The PBOC said in a statement that the research papers written by its employees represent their personal views. The central bank did not address questions about its sanctions planning. China’s State Council Information Office did not respond to queries about Beijing’s contingency planning. LOOKING TO MOSCOW The freezing of more than $300 billion in Russian central bank foreign currency assets and the removal of Russian banks from the SWIFT interbank payments system last year have particularly worried Chinese experts, given China’s more than $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and its export-dependent economy. “The risk that China’s overseas reserve assets may be frozen seems more imminent,” wrote Wang Yongli, general manager of China International Futures, one of the country’s largest commodities and financial futures brokerage businesses. Wang and several PBOC researchers wrote in articles that if the U.S. implemented Russia-style sanctions on China, Beijing should freeze U.S. investment and pension funds and seize the assets of U.S. companies. The papers did not name individual companies as potential targets. Researchers have also formulated unconventional solutions to China’s dependence on the U.S. dollar, partly inspired by Moscow’s policies. The Beijing-based China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE), which counts former commerce ministers among its leaders, published several analyses on lessons China should learn from Russia. Sun Xiaotao, a CCIEE researcher, published an article in February that argues China should push for more gold-denominated trade to prevent major fluctuations of the yuan - echoing the Russian central bank’s decision to increase its gold reserves by one million ounces since the Ukraine war began. Reuters could not determine the extent to which the think tanks influence China’s decision-making, but they are known to brief and write reports for leading officials. Some of China’s policies align with the papers’ recommendations. Central bank data earlier in October showed the PBOC increased its official gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month. ENERGY AND ALLIANCES Besides financial sanctions, Russia’s response to Western pressure on its oil, gas, metals, and chips industry has given food for thought to Chinese researchers. Mou Lingzhi, an academic at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in January that Russia’s demand that its natural gas be paid for in roubles should spur China to accelerate the promotion of yuan pricing of commodities such as lithium, which is crucial for electric vehicle batteries. Central bank researchers have echoed the point, with one from a PBOC branch in the island province of Hainan, Xia Fan, writing last November that China should “accelerate the process of international energy settlement” in yuan to weaken the dollar’s dominance in the oil market. Researchers at China Minmetals Corporation, one of the country’s top miners, wrote in June that emergency plans to guarantee supplies of iron, copper, nickel, and other strategic metals were needed, noting that Russian nickel products were suspended from the London Metals Exchange as a consequence of the war in Ukraine. Other researchers called for a new economic grouping that could protect China in a sanctions tit-for-tat. Ye Yan, an economist at China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company, wrote in January that the cheaper Russian oil China has enjoyed as a result of Western sanctions had created a model for a future “anti-sanctions corporate network” that would allow member countries to trade discounted goods. Chinese researchers also suggested Beijing exploit cracks within the European Union and between the U.S. and its allies. One foreign analyst said there could be a lack of unity in the West. “Achieving broad international consensus for a sanctions coalition on China would be orders of magnitude harder than for Russia due to the much larger volume of investments there and reliance on its market,” said Martin Chorzempa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. SEEKING SOLUTIONS Some analysts have highlighted the limits of yuan internationalisation, arguing instead that China should blunt sanctions by increasing its economic links with the U.S. and its allies. Yu, the former PBOC adviser, wrote in his 2022 paper that it was unlikely the U.S. would seize trillions of dollars or refuse to pay the principal and interest on Treasury bills China holds. “Due to the close economic and financial ties between China and the United States, the United States will not do something like ‘kill a thousand enemies and injure eight hundred of its own,’” Yu wrote. Wang, the China International Futures official, made a similar argument last year, noting that gold was not a practical replacement of dollar reserves because of the costs and risks associated with the transport and storage of large quantities of the metal. In light of these issues, many of the researchers suggest Beijing further open domestic financial markets to tie the interests of the U.S., its allies, as well as companies from these countries with China, increasing the costs of sanctions. Partly in response to this, the EU and U.S. have sought to derisk and diversify supply chains and on-shore production of chips. But these policies would take time to bear fruit, Chorzempa said. “China’s much more pronounced role in global value chains would also give it more opportunities for circumvention (of sanctions), and its ability to substitute foreign technology for indigenous production is far stronger than Russia’s”, he said. Chen, the PBOC researcher, considered the “nuclear” option of China’s excision from SWIFT, and concluded that increasing cooperation with the U.S. was the best way to shield China. “The mutual penetration of the Chinese and American economies will inevitably weaken the willingness to impose financial sanctions,” he wrote. Reporting by Eduardo Baptista; editing by David Crawshaw Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Reuters News Now
The Energy Transition Has A Gold Problem Tim Treadgold Contributor Nov 10, 2023 https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtre...ransition-has-a-gold-problem/?sh=1a742bec4e0a The energy transition, a hoped-for shift from fossil fuels to battery metals, is getting more difficult as explorers maintain a focus on the metal which is easiest to monetize because it is already a form of money, gold. A survey by the research firm S&P Global found that tight monetary policy has been a key factor in a 3.3% fall in total spending in the search this year for non-ferrous metals, a category which includes the base metals used in batteries such as copper and nickel. Gold remains the primary focus of mineral [+] © 2022 Bloomberg Finance LP Gold saw a steeper decline with the budgets of 3,100 mineral exploration companies down by 16%. But even with less spent on the hunt for gold, it still accounted for 46% of the global metal-exploration budget. The easiest explanation for the $5.92 billion invested in the search for gold, out of a total of $12.8 billion outlaid in the overall search for metals, is that gold is the mining world’s equivalent of cash. Little if any marketing is required. Demand is deep with layers of buyers from central banks to retirees worried about financial stability, all backed by at least 5,000 years of value ascribed to a material which has universal value and can be worn as jewelry or stored. John Maynard (Lord) Keynes in 1945. [+] Universal Images Group via Getty Images Not even the ultimate put-down of gold (“a barbarous relic”), by one of the 20th century’s greatest economists, John Maynard Keynes, has dimmed demand. But the S&P survey of what explorers are looking for is a surprise given the amount of political and consumer noise about the importance of replacing oil, gas, and coal with renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, which require metals. This year’s 3.3% overall decline in exploration spending brings to an abrupt end the recovery, which started in 2021 when outlays jumped by 34% in the first year after Covid lockdowns, an upward trend which continued last year when there was a 17% increase. S&P said monetary tightening has “taken a toll on exploration activity,” though the overall contraction was relatively modest. “We feel a similar story will likely emerge in 2024,” S&P said. “Metal prices and financings have underperformed for most of 2023, which has directly impacted drilling activity.” Drilling is the most important phase of exploration, the final test of high-tech physical and chemical testing, earning drill rigs the tag of “rotary lie detectors.” Forbes Daily: Get our best stories, exclusive reporting and essential analysis of the day’s news in your inbox every weekday. “September drill activity was the lowest in three years and funds raised by juniors and intermediates currently sit 14% lower year to date,” S&P said. Drilling for gold. BRYAN CHARLTON (Photo by [+] Fairfax Media via Getty Images “Financings will likely remain depressed given Federal Reserve statements indicating that interest rates are likely to remain elevated for longer. “Countering the downside risk, however, are expanding country level net-zero (carbon emission) commitments, which continue to fuel exploration programs for base (copper and nickel) and battery metals (lithium, cobalt and graphite).” Despite that flash of optimism S&P expects a 5% decline in overall exploration spending next year, compounding the problems caused by this year’s 3.3% fall. The search for green, or battery metals, is attracting a bigger share of global outlay, but a breakdown of metals shows that gold’s 46% share of spending this year easily outshone copper at 24%, lithium at 8% and nickel at 6%. If energy transition is to be achieved exploration spending must increase because there is a direct connection between what’s spent on discovery and the pace of development. Right now, according to the S&P data, the search for critical and battery metals needed in EVs and static energy storage systems, is slipping into reverse. Tim Treadgold I studied geology in the 1960s and worked for a small mining company before getting a start in journalism during the 1969 nickel boom. Since then I've covered repeated booms and busts in the commodities sector for a passing parade of newspapers, magazines and website. I am also a regular contributor to radio and television news services in Australia.
Opinion Red alert: The sneaky way Russia is selling gold to fund Putin’s war machine By Melissa Lawford Updated November 16, 2023 https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...nding-putins-war-machine-20231113-p5ejf1.html Executives from across the gold industry will next week gather at the five-star SO/ hotel in Dubai for the city’s annual Precious Metals Conference. Speakers include the general counsel of the London Bullion Market Association who will give a talk on “Enhancing governance in challenging times”. Gold is generating a vital source of revenue for Russia.Credit: AP Hanging over the conference is the spectre of Russian gold. Last week, the UK’s National Crime Agency (NCA) issued a red alert warning that Russia was increasingly using gold to avoid sanctions. The NCA warned of deliberate attempts “to launder sanctioned gold to mask its origin so that it can be hidden in supply chains and sold in the UK and around the world”. The UK government has also just become the first Western nation to announce a series of sanctions targeting specific companies involved in Russia’s gold trade. These include UAE-based gold trader Paloma Precious. Paloma is alleged to have traded $US300 million ($472 million) in Russian gold since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. UAE is now under intense scrutiny for its role in the global market for shadowy Russian gold. The metal is being shipped from Russia to refineries in countries such as the UAE that do not have sanctions against Russia. There, the gold is melted down to scrub it of its association with Russia before being sold on. “Once melted down and recast or refined, the origin cannot be determined by examination, as any hallmarks are lost,” the NCA warned. Gold is being shipped from Russia to refineries in countries such as the UAE that do not have sanctions against Russia. There, it is melted down to scrub it of its association with Russia before being sold on.Credit: Reuters The trail of gold is generating a vital source of revenue for President Putin’s war machine. And it is becoming glaringly clear that the bulk of this is moving through the UAE. London is the centre of the world’s gold trade and London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), which regulates the trade, banned Russian gold shortly after the invasion of Ukraine. The LBMA, which accredits gold refineries and sets the standard for global trade, banned bars made in Russia from March 7, 2022 onwards from being traded. Western allies followed suit and banned all Russian gold exported from July 2022 onwards. Yet rather than crush the trade, it has been rerouted. UN data shows that UAE imports of Russian gold increased 15 times over between 2021 and 2022. Other data suggests the true figure may be even higher. Russian customs records obtained earlier this year by Reuters showed that the UAE had imported 75.7 tonnes of gold from Russia worth a total of $US4.3 billion in the year since the war in Ukraine began. This was 58 times the volume by weight that was imported across 2021. The UAE was by far the largest destination for Russian gold, followed by China (primarily via Hong Kong) and Turkey, which each imported around 20 tonnes. This data suggests sanctions on Paloma Precious are hitting only the tip of a very large iceberg. Based on the customs records, the $US300 million in Russian gold traded by Paloma is equivalent to only about 7 per cent of the total that entered the UAE in the first 12 months of the war. The majority of the world’s gold refineries are accredited by the LBMA, which means they have to prove the source of every gram of gold handled and are subjected to annual external audits. LBMA-accredited refineries account for around 90 per cent of annual mined gold production around the world. ‘Russia has evolved into a barter-style economy where they are using products from their extractive industries such as oil, gas and metals mining, to pay for the purchase of weapons overseas as well as for consumer goods.’ But in the recycled gold sector there is less oversight. LBMA-accredited refineries cover about 50-60 per cent of recycled gold production. It is the recycled gold that makes up the bulk of the UAE’s market. In the UAE, there are three or four major gold refineries. None are accredited by the LBMA. Until July this summer, the Emirates Gold refinery was an affiliate member of the LBMA. But after the LBMA completed a due diligence review this summer, it suspended the refinery’s membership “until further notice”. The suspension is understood to be driven by suspected links to Russia. Separately, the UAE also blocked Emirates Gold from delivering into Dubai’s gold market after it failed to meet standards for responsible sourcing and anti-money laundering. The current owner of Emirates Gold is Paloma Precious. In September, London-listed Rockfire Resources announced a deal to acquire 100 per cent of Emirates Gold, provided it was reinstated to the UAE’s good delivery list. Rockfire has since said it is taking urgent legal advice to determine the impact of UK sanctions on the transaction. Paloma Precious did not respond to a request for comment. Because the UAE has no sanctions on Russia, Putin is free to export Russian gold to these refineries. Russia’s reliance on friendly countries such as the UAE to wash its gold mimics the way Putin has managed to circumvent the G7 oil price cap by building a “dark fleet” of tankers operating outside the Western insurance market. The bulk of the Russian gold that passes through the UAE is likely going on to China and India, but some will also be coming to the UK. It cannot be imported into the UK as bars because it lacks LBMA certification, but it can be imported as jewellery or even in electronics. British holidaymakers who buy jewellery in the UAE may also inadvertently be purchasing Russian gold and bringing it home. UAE is now under intense scrutiny for its role in the global market for shadowy Russian gold.Credit: iStock The end result is a lifeline for the Kremlin. Russia produces more than 300 tonnes of gold per year and the sector was worth £12.6 billion ($24.2 billion) to the economy in 2021. It is a “critical revenue stream” for Russia’s war effort and one of the largest after oil and gas, the Foreign Office warned. “Gold is essential to Russia,” says Christopher Swift, a national security lawyer at Foley & Lardner and formerly an official in the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. “Russia has evolved into a barter-style economy where they are using products from their extractive industries such as oil, gas and metals mining, to pay for the purchase of weapons overseas as well as for consumer goods.” While the West was quick to realise the significance of oil and gas to Putin’s war machine, it was slower to realise the significance of gold. However, as the Foreign Office sanctions last week demonstrate, Westminster is now waking up – and turning the screws on Putin. Telegraph, London