Which way? Gold.

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by themickey, Aug 20, 2019.

  1. Overnight

    Overnight

    Damn, another big day for GC, this time 70 points straight down from bell-to-bell. The hell is going on over there in the metal space?
     
    #171     Aug 19, 2020
  2. themickey

    themickey

    Do I have to repeat myself? :)
    tenor(2).gif

    This your prize for working it out..... :)
    1_H-zCyVjnjOdWr7-eDIaPqg0.jpg
     
    #172     Aug 19, 2020
  3. Overnight

    Overnight

    Ahh, I see...Somehow I should be going long FCOJ futures?

    Sincerely yours...
    Not a prize-winning tree-shaker. :)

    P.S. The animated .gif is so small, can't actually tell. Are those oranges or apples?
     
    #173     Aug 19, 2020
  4. themickey

    themickey

    Apples
    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #174     Aug 19, 2020
  5. themickey

    themickey

    No short FCOJ because fruit is falling. See pic above.
     
    #175     Aug 19, 2020
  6. cj_sat69

    cj_sat69

    Hi guys new to this forum, been trying to learn about gold for a while now, as it has dropped quiet a bit today would this be a good time to buy it for the long run, any advice would be very grateful

    thanks
     
    #176     Aug 19, 2020
  7. Overnight

    Overnight

    You are very silly. And the irony is not lost on me that they seem to be of the "golden delicious" variety of apple.
     
    #177     Aug 19, 2020
  8. themickey

    themickey

    If you were a pedestrian wishing to cross the road safely in Hanoi, how would you do it?
    untachanoi_1.jpg

    You would step off the curb and cross SLOWLY, watching the traffic and where you are going.
    Likewise gold, step in quietly, go cautiously, don't do anything rash unless you know that you know what you are doing. (that takes a huge amount of study or education, doesn't happen overnight).
     
    #178     Aug 20, 2020
    TimtheEnchanter likes this.
  9. themickey

    themickey

    [​IMG]
    Warren Buffett’s Barrick Gold investment tipped to inspire investors
    https://stockhead.com.au/resources/...-gold-investment-tipped-to-inspire-investors/

    2 hours ago | Mike Cooper

    Legendary investor Warren Buffett’s decision to buy into Canadian gold giant Barrick Gold could trigger a stampede of retail investors into gold shares, according to analysts.

    Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway bought 20.92 million shares in Barrick Gold during the June quarter at a cost of $US563.6m ($786m), according to company records lodged with the US Securities & Exchange Commission.

    Berkshire Hathaway’s investment in Barrick has already increased in value by $42.5m.

    The gold miner’s share price closed Wednesday at $US28.98, while the average cost of his company’s investment was $US26.94/share.

    Signal to retail investors to buy into gold companies
    Known as the Oracle of Omaha after his home town in Nebraska, also the base of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has a loyal following among retail investors who follow his stock picks.

    One market analyst said Buffett’s entry onto the Barrick Gold share register could act as a market signal to astute retail investors.

    Some may be influenced to replicate his trade by buying into Australian gold companies.

    Another market analyst called Buffett’s Barrick investment a significant moment for the gold market given his high profile in the investment world.

    Buffett’s Hathaway a newcomer to gold investing
    As chief executive and chairman of investment company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett and his company appear to be recent converts to gold company investments.

    A March quarter SEC filing showed Berkshire Hathaway had no investment in Barrick Gold.

    Buffett has previously said he preferred to invest in assets that generated income and capital gains such as shares.

    Gold generates no income unless it is leased out and can only increase or decrease in value against currency.

    In a speech at Harvard University he famously said of gold that it had “no utility”, meaning that it lacked much practical use outside of jewellery.

    “[It] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it,” he was reported as saying.

    Barrick Gold ‘printing money’ at current gold prices
    One market analyst, Bram de Haas at Seeking Alpha, said Berkshire Hathaway’s entry onto the Barrick Gold share register may be driven by simple economics.

    “Barrick Gold is one of the largest mining companies in the world. It has an all-in cost of mining around $US950/oz of gold,” he said, while the gold price is near to $US2,000/oz.

    “Currently, the company is printing money,” he said.

    Peter Grosskopf, chief executive of Sprott — an investment company that favours gold and founded by Eric Sprott, told the Financial Post he believed Berkshire Hathaway’s Barrick Gold stake showed the company and Buffett were comfortable with gold as a store of value.

    Berkshire Hathaway versus gold
    Meanwhile, Nick Barisheff, the founder of BMG Group — a gold bullion investment firm, said in an article on its website that gold had outperformed Berkshire Hathaway over a 20-year period.

    From 1999 to 2019, gold has returned 429 per cent, while Berkshire Hathaway has returned 385 per cent, according to Barisheff.

    “This indicates that gold outperformed both value investing and growth investing indexes, as well as Berkshire, throughout the investment period,” he said.

    “Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway outperformed its respective index as well as growth stocks, however, it could have performed even better with gold,” Barisheff added.

    Indeed, if one had invested in gold in 1999 and sold in August 2011 when its price hit $US1,900/oz and then put some of this cash into Berkshire Hathaway shares then trading at $US107,600/share, it may have turned into the trade of the decade.

    [​IMG]
    Comparative performance of gold and Berkshire Hathaway 1999-2019. Source: BMG Group
    Berkshire Hathaway’s A share price at Wednesday’s market close was $US310,800/share.

    The price of gold has dropped to under $US2,000 per ounce after declining for five straight trading sessions, and as selling pressure on the US dollar has eased, analysts said.

    Spot gold was trading at $US1,932/oz ($2,693/oz), in early Thursday trade, according to precious metals news website Kitco.
     
    #179     Aug 20, 2020
  10. themickey

    themickey

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...y-debasement-skybridge-says?srnd=premium-asia

    Gold Will Gain on ‘Massive Currency Debasement,’ SkyBridge Says
    Ranjeetha Pakiam, Bloomberg News

    Gold will extend its record-setting rally on “massive currency debasement” and expectations for further stimulus, according to SkyBridge Capital, which recently added exposure to the metal after exiting in 2011.

    “When you think of currency debasement the question is, what is the dollar going to weaken against, and when you look around the globe, it’s hard to be excited about alternative currencies,” said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager, listing the euro, yuan and emerging-market monies. “So, gold is obviously a natural alternative currency.”

    The precious metal surged to a record well above $2,000 an ounce earlier this month -- although prices have stumbled since then -- as central banks including the Federal Reserve unleashed vast stimulus to support economies hurt by the coronavirus pandemic. That’s spurred bets that paper currencies will lose their value as money supply jumps. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. calls gold the currency of last resort and has forecast more gains.

    Gold is “fairly rich versus oil or other real commodities, but it hasn’t appreciated nearly as much as money-supply growth since its previous peak in September of 2011,” Gayeski said in an interview. “It wouldn’t surprise us if by the end of next year, it’s around the $2,100-to-$2,200 range.”

    Spot gold hit an all-time high of $2,075.47 on Aug. 7 as the dollar weakened and real interest rates fell well below zero. On Thursday it was at $1,930 an ounce, up 27% this year. Prices eased midweek after minutes from the Fed showed it edging away from a step that would underscore a commitment to an extended period of ultra-loose policy.

    Ultimately, the driver for gold is “you have massive currency debasement, particularly in the U.S.,” Gayeski said.

    SkyBridge, which manages $7.35 billion, has about 3% exposure to gold, with the majority of positions taken in the past two months. The fund-of-funds manager’s primary exposures are to U.S. cash-flow-generative strategies backed by tangible assets, including residential mortgage-backed securities.

    While the latest round of fiscal stimulus talks haven’t yet yielded a deal, the Fed has already swelled its balance sheet by about $2.8 trillion this year, with Goldman cautioning that U.S. policy is triggering debasement fears.

    The Fed will likely ramp up asset purchases, and there’s more fiscal stimulus coming too, according to Gayeski. “All those things argue for a continued bull market in gold, again driven principally by money-supply growth and dollar debasement as opposed to real inflation fears,” he said. “Furthermore, expect continued asset inflation long before real inflation ever shows up.”
     
    #180     Aug 20, 2020