Canadian nat gas stocks didn't do much this week. I'll be curious to see if they breakthrough their recent highs tomorrow.
China takes Australian coal deliveries despite import ban amid power pinch 23 hours ago https://www.afr.com/world/asia/chin...mport-ban-amid-power-shortage-20211005-p58xgk Hong Kong/London| China has started unloading a small number of Australian coal shipments despite an unofficial import ban, analysts said, in a move underscoring the intensity of the power crunch facing the world’s second-largest economy. Nick Ristic, lead dry cargo analyst at Braemar ACM Shipbroking, said a handful of Australian cargoes waiting outside Chinese ports since a ban came into force a year ago had headed into berth last month and draft change had been observed, indicating that the coal had been unloaded. He said 450,000 tonnes of coal had been discharged. Last year Beijing reportedly ordered state-owned energy companies and steel mills to stop importing Australian coal immediately. AP Energy research company Kpler also said a total of five vessels waiting offshore had discharged 383,000 tonnes of Australian thermal coal into China last month. It is possible the discharged coal had been resold to other countries, but traders said this was unlikely because of signals from Chinese authorities that it would be allowed to clear customs. Last year Beijing reportedly ordered state-owned energy companies and steel mills to stop importing Australian coal immediately, in a blow to the country’s $55 billion a year coal export industry. so severe that in some places factories have been allowed to operate for only two days a week, threatening economic growth and the global supply chain. Lara Dong, who leads Greater China power and renewables research at IHS Markit, said the move to allow a few shipments to start being delivered was unlikely to be a sign of a broader policy reversal. “I see it as a sign of policy loosening, it doesn’t seem to mean a big difference in coal imports from Australia,” she said. The shortages, which have also hit some household users, gathered steam in large part owing to coal supply shortages and higher domestic and international prices. This has made coal-fired power generation uneconomic because of price controls.
I'm still heavily weighted Cdn Oil producers but sold most of my nat gas producers during the week. Rebought Cenovus again late week but it seems to move more like an Oil producer then the pure Nat Gas plays. I'm riding the momentum ready to rapidly reduce on any adverse event. However, I forgot that the TSX is closed Monday so I'm going to take a hit if anything bad occurs Monday. I do think WTI taking out $80 decisively is in the cards though. I'll look to rebuy nat gas plays if nat gas stabilizes because earnings reports next month should be blow out wins. Hard to say how much of it is priced in. Companies I like are BIR, ARX, CVE, CR ( all on the TSX ). I'm unclear if CR has run too far too fast or not and it's the only one that disappointed on recent earnings reports ( and corrected deeply after ). Used to own TOU and NVA but they ran up huge and I never got back on board. I'm only buying if lower range prices or Nat Gas trend looks good, or as a day trade in certain situations.
Long term short Nat Gas/hedged, don't ever know if highs are in, but will keep selling higher if it goes higher, was long from June of last year with some add-ons. Still waiting for rest of the energies to get up little more before start shorting them, been long since March/April of 2020 with add-ons. Once price gets to percentages, breakeven stops never moved, they get adjusted cause of rollovers, but much backtesting proves to me trailing stops hurts bottom line. If I was to do over again, not gone into scalping or day trading, not done long term stocks and applied funds to long term commodities and selling options. But the knowledge gained by doing what I have done in past has allowed better systems to be automated. Trade like a producer, seldom see them going belly up.