Which way? A Gold Timing exercise

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by themickey, Nov 4, 2021.

  1. themickey

    themickey

    Gold stocks today in Australia went gangbusters.
    Welp imo, it's a suckers rally!
    It may go up another day or two then kaput!
    XGD.AX_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_11_06_2023.png
     
    #351     Nov 6, 2023
    semperfrosty likes this.
  2. On Globex,Gold is approaching what would be a quadruple top.

    I cant see that top holding with the obvious global turmoil and uncertainty.

    Then again,traditional flight to safety routes may be changing.An,unusual,quad top and retracement may be an indicator of a shift in traditional thinking and emerging options.
     
    #352     Nov 6, 2023
  3. themickey

    themickey

    Here's a comparison % chart of gold (black) versus HG copper (red), over 3 years, notice the disparity in percentage, copper outperforming gold for the most part.
    ^XAUUSD_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_11_06_2023(1).png

    Then notice where I've drawn a vertical line in October 2022, this is where imo they both agree on difference, copper and gold bottomed together approx.

    If I then zoom to this area of Oct 2022 I get this chart....
    ^XAUUSD_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_11_06_2023(2).png

    Where gold has outperformed copper.

    Me thinks gold will rest up, copper will begin a catchup run.
    Vertical October line on extreme LHS of chart.

    Note: copper and gold are frequently mined together from same ore body.
     
    #353     Nov 6, 2023
  4. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    I don't see any imminent breakout up/down coming soon (Gold VIX stable currently) although it always seems to happen when you least expect.
     
    #354     Nov 6, 2023
  5. themickey

    themickey

    Once upon a time I was a gold bug, not any longer, so my wife has taken over the mantle, she loooooves all things gold stocks, that's nearly all she trades although she did once buy an iron ore miner.
    Anyhow, wife is really exited, daily recently I'm hearing about gold above US2000.

    GCY00_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_11_28_2023.png

    Well I'm not excited nor am I sure it will hold this level.
    Gold continues to hit the 2000 level and fall back. You would think maybe this time it will breakout above for good.

    My opinion, I think once again it will fail.
    It has never had a monthly close above 2000 and with 3 US trading days to go, that's enough time for it to suck in the gold suckers and spit 'em out again.

    December will see gold pull back again imo. Lets see......
    Historically December is a strong month for gold, Asians buy up for the New Year gifts, but this year they're just as broke as the rest of us honkies.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2023
    #355     Nov 28, 2023
  6. themickey

    themickey

    upload_2023-11-29_1-31-46.png

    Yes! A Musk rocketship.....
     
    #356     Nov 28, 2023
  7. themickey

    themickey

    #357     Nov 28, 2023
  8. themickey

    themickey

    not to be outshined by gold excuse the pun, Bitcoin decided to join the party...

    upload_2023-11-29_3-16-16.png
     
    #358     Nov 28, 2023
  9. themickey

    themickey

    upload_2023-11-29_3-21-58.png

    Gold (black) vs Bitcoin (orange) 5 years. Percentages.
     
    #359     Nov 28, 2023
  10. DjaWeb

    DjaWeb

    Sure Gold is (naturally) correlated to Silver and other precious metals. They move together for the obvious reason: when institutional investors (traders) make a purchase (or a sell) of Gold they do it in their portfolio allocation to precious metals, of course, the big allocations are going to gold followed by Silver and Platinum, (In my observations Less frequently Palladium, I don't know why).
    The reason Silver is "roughly" volatile compared to gold is due to their market cap and mainly the price of silver itself compared to Gold (The gold/silver ratio (GSR)) which is right now around 81.24. To illustrate this volatility behaviour, when we put a Motorbike, a Car and a Truck .. in one start line and let them start which will go first? .... obviously the Bike because it is lighter, moves faster, but in the long run, The Truck will over outperform the rest.
     
    #360     Nov 30, 2023