At this point in time I have zero optimism. Zero, nil, nix, 0, POS gold. The stock market in general today the most bearish I've seen for quite some time.
Down day occured today as guessed, nearly 100% of gold and silver stocks were in red. Tomorrow expecting an insipid bounce, likely a narrow range day. Expecting Nasdaq up day tomorrow.
Looking at gold price action, a rocky road it travels on, very difficult to know its mind but foolishly will make the call there is still short term weakness dead ahead.
Trend lines I rarely use, it's not my method of trading but I do use support and resistance levels in a rough manner, using the term 'rough' because generally speaking S/R will be penetrated briefly or fall short of as it's the markets way of fooling the crowd, taking out stops. With gold due to the high level of emotion/cultism and because it's basically a speculative commoditity, once momentum gets going then we see parabolic moves, not straight trend lines.
Technicals on commodities rarely matter imo but I see a ton of traders and analysts who think they matter. The trade really is the miners because we are still in a situation where miners are far cheaper them they should be for where Gold is at. 1800 is close to old ATHs and some of the stocks are 20-40% of where they were at the old ATHs. Now there are reasons for this problem I'm sure. Sentiment is one. Bitcoin talk is another. A last factor that I'm realizing now is perhaps mines are impacted more then other businesses due to Covid. The reason I say this is earnings in 2021 while not horrible underperformed the kind of growth that late 2020 suggested, Beyond just Gold not being $2000+. $1800 is still a rather healthy level but the earnings numbers are kind of mundane. So I think the only good plays are jump in if Gold makes a big move, or play the range when miners get crushed on news but are still profitable.
The way I'm playing gold is only via gold mining stocks and two types; I have a small handful of very profitable gold producers and a couple of handfuls of penny stocks which have made large discoveries but not producing plus 1 silver ETF. Every one is currently underwater. I was hoping silver would finally uncorrelate to gold due to heavier demand as we go into a battery material/Solarpanel era, but I was dreaming in lala land.