Which way? A Gold Timing exercise

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by themickey, Nov 4, 2021.

  1. themickey


    This thread dedicated to gold timing calls.
    I've wanted to do this for a while, so taking the plunge to try it this time.

    I've been trading gold for years, it's damn tricky, similar imo to forex.
    I hate gold, frustrating, it will test you hard, not easy to win.

    Somehow gold has an alure, sucks in everybody it seems, the media love yakking on about it, everyone is an fu**ing expert.

    Well I'm no expert, take this thread with a sense of mirth, but I think I may have it sussed on calling this POS commodity.

    This is a game, don't take these calls as professional advice, its a trading forum, we're here to chat and it's not to make God inspired calls.
    longandshort likes this.
  2. themickey


    ..so gold went up...approx 1.65%

    ..and silver went up 2.7% approx...

    My observation, when gold is bullish, silver will increase approx 100% the move on gold.

    So, is gold bullish this time?

    My opinion and forgetting what I just said about the gold silver relationship, this current gold price move is just more of the usual bs, it's a dummy move.

    Ok, changing the subject slightly, I think gold is possibly setting itself up for a bullish move - possibly - but right now this move we have just seen is not it, expect some more gold price softening, eg don't expect tomorrow will be a strong upmove/breakout.
  3. Overnight


    Pull those charts back for a larger view. Say the 5 year.

    I have never followed silver, but IIRC Gold tends to move up as the holidays approach, as demand for gold jewelry increases as we near X-Mas.

    Does that theory bear out on the 5-year, or 20-year even?
  4. themickey


    Correct, from about November to Feb, these are usually bullish gold months.
    The theory being, Asians/Indians buy gold as gifts to relatives in this seasonal period. :)
  5. themickey


    Gold bugs - people who are extremely bullish on this commodity as an investment - often say gold is correlated to USD, the markets, Indian Rupee, Metals index.... blah blah.
    Gold is probably most correlated to silver, but silver is roughly twice as volatile, a short term trader is maybe better off trading silver than gold as it moves greater.

    Anyhow, they now say gold and crypto are oppositely correlated.
    Well crypto has probably taken some of gold's cake.

    But in terms of attempting to time gold's moves via looking at correlations - furgedaboudit, gold has a mind of its own, ya can't trade gold by looking at USD or crypto or anything.

    Even inflation figures, gold will in the short term wander off in its own direction.
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
  6. Poljot


    Chart trading gold futures or gold miners or both?

    Do you find COT reports useful for trading gold?

    My short term (2-3 days) call is 60/40 bullish. Looking for 1820 touch.
    themickey likes this.
  7. themickey


    Charts is a bit of it but not all, just a confirmation glance. I predominantly use self designed/written algos. So this is about gold cash direction.

    No, I find it's totally useless, like 100% useless, does nothing for me.
    Doubt it, but maybe day 3 it may bounce up hard, still, doubt it.
  8. Overnight


    $1900 on Feb 2022 GC by year end. Bold prediction. Bam!
    Trader200K likes this.
  9. themickey


    Yes, probably :)
  10. themickey


    ASX is open 1 hour so far today and XGD (ASX gold index) is moving up quite strongly, up 2.78%.
    Often I find, XGD will lead USA in terms of gold's stock moves, so atm today, XGD is quite bullish, let's see how the day ends.
    I'll stick to my guns atm, this a bs gold move, but nevertheless I'm happy as I'm (stupidly) overweight on gold positions, so I make hay anyway, bs move or not.
    #10     Nov 4, 2021