Which trading strategy would you prefer?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by helpme_please, Jun 7, 2019.

  1. my suggestion would be go back to the drawing board and come with a new strategy. Any strategy that has less than 60-70% win ratio is not a good strategy, unless you like gambling and the euphoria associated with gamblers high. Both of your strategies are like flicking a coin where you either have a 50-50 scenario or a little high/ less than 50%.
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2019
    #11     Jun 8, 2019
    murray t turtle likes this.
  2. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    One of the first principles to learn in trading (and in life) is that of expectancy: probability + earnings. You are only looking at half the ingredients. Go back to the OP's drawing board, and realize that both are posted, and allow you to compute expected returns.
     
    #12     Jun 8, 2019
    murray t turtle and userque like this.
  3. Handle123

    Handle123

    Strategy 1

    What most might not factor, the other 50% would be a mixture of break evens(less than couple bucks loss/win) and loses.

    Took me long time to consider working on drawdown more important than profits, if you losing much less, less you have to make back and increase size...average down. But I don't recommend averaging down to anyone unless you know how to get DD way down.
     
    #13     Jun 8, 2019
    tenny1886 likes this.
  4. exactly in both scenarios i see the broker making the profit. loss/Break even for OP or best case scenario a very low net profit but unless OP is trading huge contracts or is sitting on huge cash pile, it does not seem like a good strategy in both cases. Any strategy near about 50-55% win/loss ratio would require huge gamble and cash reserves to sustain such gambles before netting some respectable profit. May be i am looking at it from a wrong perspective but my probability on risk/reward and ease of achieving the goal, both strategies would be a no go. Also the emotions will come into play when you have near about 50% win/loss ratio and it does not end on the positive side with that ratio figure.
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2019
    #14     Jun 8, 2019
  5. But where do you draw the line on draw downs when you just let the trade go instead of trying to salvage it. i have had some serious issues with drawdowns and still do. I am trying to figure out best way to manage draw downs.
     
    #15     Jun 8, 2019
    murray t turtle likes this.
  6. But you also have to look at the psychological side of trading when placing trades using both the strategies. In both cases, i am trying to look at the whole picture including the emotional side of trading using both strategies. As i am sure we humans are not immune to the fear of loss and the loss hurts us more than the joy of win gets and many a time the fear of loss and the actual loss clouds our judgement to make rational trades when the time is right. As the fear holds us back, we miss several valid trades and right there we lose an edge. In both situations the drawbacks outnumber the positive outcome, also to get meaningful profit, you will be risking quite a bit of capital but the rewards are capped at 1:1 in scenario 1.
    While scenario 2 is even scarier as you will be absorbing quite a loss before it turns positive but then reward is handicapped at 1:2.
    I would call them both scenarios and not strategy. But that is my perspective and i could be wrong as i am using my own trading logic and risk reward parameters.

    None of the above applies if the OP trades using algos or does not manually trade and has quite a bit of cash reserves.
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2019
    #16     Jun 8, 2019
  7. qlai

    qlai

    I'm surprised no one is suggesting running booth (maybe because that was not the question). If draw downs unlikely to correlate, running both should smooth results, no?
     
    #17     Jun 8, 2019
    MarkBrown likes this.
  8. Trade them separate of course and as mentioned earlier trade them both.

    Since they will become extinct you need to think about at what draw down level you stop trading it.Protecting your initial capital is essential.
    Be careful trading any strategy with fixed R/R,it may show in stats that looks like same amounts won to lost and that OK,but it most likely will be detrimental to positive expectancy of the strategy itself.
     
    #18     Jun 9, 2019
  9. shatteredx

    shatteredx

    Strategy 1 would be easier emotionally to trade.

    I would probably choose whichever has the shortest drawdown periods if returns are similar.
     
    #19     Jun 9, 2019
  10. Handle123

    Handle123

    I hedge opening positions in stocks, futures, ETF's, even spreads over 29 minute bar charts, I have no problems of using a method that has less than 50/50 win loss for many traders, so a loss is a loss for majority of traders, and yet often can be an overall small gain on trades that go wrong directions.

    My edge is risk management as it is 99% of my Trading Plan, it is area that traders usually spend least amount of time as many want the best entry so they can risk less, but best entry is an illusion as tomorrow retracement can go lower or be a trend change, whereas I have no worries, I don't own a crystal ball, how low is low? I can't control entries nor how high will be high to take profits, but I can use options or futures to hedge risk at the start and hedge open profits when showing due for retracements. Risk is only area I can control for most part. I didn't learn how to hedge by reading books but 80 plus hours a week for three years doing simulations. I am always testing new ideas based on risk.
     
    #20     Jun 21, 2019
    tenny1886 likes this.