How about PG BDK NSRGY (Nestle) DEO K consumer products companies tend to do well over very long periods. People will always shave/drink alcohol/eat chocolate etc. even as various technologies change over time. Look at TR (Tootsie Roll) over the last 20 years. Boring a heck, but a huge earner.
That's right. None. I'd take 10% a trade over 100% a year any time. For such a long timeframe, how do you know where in the cycle your entry is? If you listened to any of these jokers back then, you'd have to wait 30 years just to break even.. :eek: > > October 1999: James Glassman, author Dow 36,000 > > "What is dangerous is for Americans not to be in the market. We're going to reach a point where stocks are correctly priced, and we think that's 36,000 ... It's not a bubble. Far from it. The stock market is undervalued." (Warning, don't choke on your popcorn!) > > December 1999: Joseph Battipaglia, market analyst > > "Some fear a burst Internet bubble, but our analysis shows that Internet companies account for only 7% of the overall Nasdaq market cap but carry expected long-term growth rates twice those of other rapidly growing segments within tech." (The Internet Index lost two-thirds in the next six months.) > > December 1999: Larry Wachtel, Prudential > > "Most of these stocks are reasonably priced. There's not reason for them to correct violently in the year 2000." (Fact: The Nasdaq lost 50% in 2000.) > > December 1999: Ralph Acampora, Prudential Securities > > "I'm not saying this is a straight line up. I'm not saying you can't have pauses. I'm saying any kind of declines, buy them!" (He also predicted a 14,000 Dow by the end of 2000 and an 11-year bull.) > > February 2000: Larry Kudlow, CNBC commentator > > "This correction will run its course until the middle of the year. Then things will pick up again, because not even Greenspan can stop the Internet economy." (He's still an economist, hosting his own show.) > > April 2000: Myron Kandel, CNN > > "The bottom line is, before the end of the year, the Nasdaq and Dow will be at new record highs." (Later in September he predicted a rally to 12,000 by election day.) > > September 2000: Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator > > "SUNW probably has the best near-term outlook of any company I know." (Within four months Sun Microsystems went from $60 to $30, down to $10 in a year, below $3 in two years.) > > November 2000: Louis Rukeyser on CNN > > "Over the next year or two [the stock market] will be higher, and I know over the next five to 10 years it will be higher." (We crashed, fell into a recession, and in two years tech lost 70%.) > > January 2001: Suze Orman, financial guru > > "In the low 60s here, I think the QQQ, they're a buy. They may go down, but if you dollar-cost average, where you put money every single month into them, I think, in the long run, it's the way to play the Nasdaq." (The QQQ fell 60% further.) > > March 2001: Maria Bartiromo, CNBC anchor > > "The individual out there is actually not throwing money at things that they do not understand, and is actually using the news and using the information out there to make smart decisions." (Yes, she's serious.) > > April 2001: Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs > > "The time to be nervous was a year ago. The S&P then was overvalued, it's now undervalued." (Unfortunately, the markets continued down for another 18 months). > > August 2001: Lou Dobbs, CNN > > "Let me make it very clear. I'm a bull, on the market, on the economy. And let me repeat, I am a bull." (Within a year the Dow and Nasdaq lost a third more).
eagle488, Your view of looking at the markets is making sense to me. You got me into thinking now. you said >>So I am figuring to buy shares of different companies at the rate of $1000 per month from computershares.com as a supplement This site isn't working. Can you tell me the site where $1000 every month out aside can buy equal $ amount of shares from 40 companies without paying any monthly maintanence fee. Maybe to start with I may start with 100$ a month, will that be feasible ( i doubt ) may be then I will have to reduce the number of companies. 1000$ /month just sounds too much for now, but your thinking makes sense too. What do you think would be good investment strategy if I want to invest 100$ /month ?
Its www.computershare.com. First, you choose the companies and then go to that company's website. Look under investor relations. Most companies have a dividend reinvestment plan or a direct stock purchase plan. Most of those companies use www.computershare.com, but they also use a few other websites. Some have no plan at all. For no plan at all, I suggest www.sharebuilder.com. The reason to use these sites versus your regular broker is because you want to keep everything seperate and make it as hard as possible for you to cash them out. A dividend reinvestment plan is the way to go because when the company pays a dividend it automatically goes back into purchasing stock. I use the index from www.dividendachievers.com as my guide and only buy companies that I recognize without doing further research. If I were going to do $100 a month, then I would do it with different companies each time and use different industries. For example, buy $100 3M one month, then $100 AFLAC another month, then $100 BUD the next month, etc. I think that there is a minimum amount to invest for some companies, like $500... You also want to look at the companies to see if they make sense to you. Look at how they have historically traded. For example, 3M. It has been in a staircase pattern since 1979. The tech bubble did not effect it. This is a good pick. Look at GE. It bubbled up too much during the late 90s and then crashed back down. I wouldnt pick that one.
AWGI,Alderwoods Group Inc CSV,Carriage Services Inc SCI,Service Corp Internat SNFCA,Security National Financial Corp Class A STEI,Stewart Enterprises Cl A STON,Stonemor Partners L.p. PRVT NOOF PLA These businesses have very low failure rates.
true. but you should'nt want to get in when gold ran up to 850 in 1980. it went from a low of 216.55 in 1979 to a high of 850 in 1980. those sharp run ups do not usually hold. the time to get in was when it dropped below 300 in 1982 (high 488.50/ low 296.75), and get in again when it went below 300 in 1985 (high 340.90/low 284.00. today gold is at 588.90. works the same for stocks. hold your money until it comes down to a significant low, a market crash or other sell off event. that's when the fear is highest to get in, but have you ever seen it never come back. comes back every time. last significant low followed on 9/11. nasdaq comp slid to below 1200 in '02. today it's at 2357. where was the bottom to be? no one knew. takes balls to get in at some point and keep adding to falling positions. doing that with leverage must be the ultimate torment. but, if your stocks are any good they will come back with the market.
Interesting example. I hope you don't follow your own advice. If you had bought in 1982 at $300 and are still holding I wonder if you would have broken even yet after carrying costs and inflation. Do the numbers; I don't think so. If it takes balls to hold something for 20 years and still have a negative real rate of return, I'd rather be a eunuch (well, maybe not).
don't know extent of the carrying cost or how much inflation eroded the gains. off the top of my head, i'd say significant profit would have been made. there was opportunity to be in at 300 in '82 and out at 500 in '83. and also in at 300 in '85 and out at 500 in '87. if you look at historical prices for gold you will see several opportunities to invest in gold that way. the price pattern is consistent.