How do you objectively determine what is bad news and good news? And how do you determine whether market is legitimately rising or doing a quick run to the upside before going down? "Right before any big drop you will probably get a quick final rise, and right before any big rise you will generally get a quick final drop to shake out the weak hands and get them going the wrong way." So if the market goes up, it might be the precursor to a downmove, and if the market goes down it can be the precursor to the upmove, all the while you have to keep in mind whether the news is positive or negative and when it goes down on good news it means the big players are selling, which means you could have a quick run to the upside, and vice versa. This is why I don't trade the news, I rather trade pure TA and avoid having positions or tighten stop during news, than trade this mess. I am no fan of these trade methods that sound so vague, like gap fills and such. I understand you can't be too precise FB123, but news trading like you're doing sounds so complicated.
I doubt it. I could see them extending it to the end of the year or so, but it's really tough to predict at this point. There is a commercial real estate crisis that's starting to rear its head now. There are still lots of problems out there, and you can't fix things by just printing more money. Sooner or later we will have a reckoning of one sort or another, but as for predicting exactly when - I try not to do that too much, especially when the market is not playing by normal rules. This is exactly why I trade such short term movements - none of this stuff ever really bothers me.
http://www.forexfactory.com/ They have a page with all the news release times, along with expected numbers. If it comes out better than expected, the number is green. Otherwise, it's red, or black if it's in line with expectations. That's all you need to know. You don't know for sure what's going on until after the news comes out, and it's not an exact science. But you don't need to do that anyways - just follow the price action and the trend. I didn't need to know the news or anything else to see that it was topping and dropping - the price action told me that. I would have gotten short regardless of the news, or even if I had no idea that there was news. It's just additional information that confirms what I'm seeing on the chart. When multiple sources of information agree, it's a powerful thing. You don't have to trade the news. Just trade the price action, and be aware of when the news is coming out, probably not trading for 5 minutes around it. The price action is all that's important anyways - if that fits into a theory around the news, then great. If not, ignore the theory and follow the price.
And therein lies the conundrum. Stop trying to make predictions and hit homeruns. Instead, focus on making high-probability trades and earning money over a series of trades instead of just one single trade. Whenever I hear someone pontificate about what the market will do now or in the future, I immediately know that they are not a successful trader, because successful trading ONLY exists in the form of probabilities over a series of guesses and not just one.
There are some things I will talk about. Folks that just registered on ET and claim to have secrets that no one else talks about are a dime a dozen. "Finally, my ES potion is ready to drink"
Thanks Fast_Trader for sharing It seems that www.tradepilotpro.com website is not working! Do you know any thing about them, or they went bankrupt? http://www.eminiaddict.com does seems to be a nice guy, but he said in his website: Iâd like to remind you that the purpose of this trading room is education. This is not an alert or trade signal service. I will not be making any trade recommendations during the course of the day. What I will do is conduct real time technical analysis on the Emini futures to help identify key areas. I will also help put together a profitable trading plan throughout the day. Still dont know about http://www.coiledmarkets.com AustinP although he seems to use a kind of indicators (you know how those indicators things works!!) Does any one have real life experiance about him to share? Thanks for all of you guys for keeping it simple and clean
FB123, thanks a lot for sharing, You have used a lot of time trying to explain the real deal and your way of trading, I can feel what you mean sometimes, and feel how much hard it is. Would like to ask you if you know any thing about those guys: http://marketdelta.com/ and http://blog.marketdelta.com/ have you tried them or heard about them? Are they like http://www.tradeguider.com/ ? Any body else have an idea about their method?
By the way, while I am still trying to learn, I heard about this book, and heard its good. I wanted to share with everyong: Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar: The Technical Analysis of Price Action for the Serious Trader by Al Brooks Here is the link http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470443952,descCd-description.html