FB123, do you trade an advanced form of tape reading - i.e. watching the price/DOM tick by tick to trade the news? I could never find a way to trade the news profitable. "... after a runup like that and good news coming out, if it doesn't spike higher immediately and keep going, it's going to fall. Same thing in reverse - if terrible news comes out and the market doesn't drop further, start looking for a rally. It was looking weak at the top after that news - that's NOT what you want to see after good news comes out." Can you clarify this, this sounds very vague. This sounds like a type of quote from R.H.. :eek:
It's ironic, but that R.H. did pretty much say the same thing, except he doesn't take a trade until his specific setups are in place.
It's my experience that traing room leaders are masters of shaving the realities of actual entries and exits into 'theoretical entries and exits, and it's the differnece between being profitable and unprofitable your taught to make trades based on the best way to mislead a group of people watching, and how to not notice what's really happening - how to trust a dominent personality rather than your own eyes not exactly what you want to learn
You should choose mine, but I can't afford to have one. It's a koan like the Groucho Marx joke: "I wouldn't join any club that would have me as a member". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hacker_koan Emacs and Bolio This particular koan is sometimes punningly referred to as an âice cream koanâ, though that term also refers to an ice cream koan in The Dharma Bums. This koan refers to AI Lab tools that predate the GNU project: A cocky novice once said to Stallman: âI can guess why the editor is called Emacs, but why is the justifier called Bolio?â. Stallman replied forcefully, âNames are but names, âEmack & Bolio'sâ is the name of a popular ice cream shop in Boston-town. Neither of these men had anything to do with the software.â His question answered, yet unanswered, the novice turned to go, but Stallman called to him, âNeither Emack nor Bolio had anything to do with the ice cream shop, either.â[2] A possible interpretation is that this is about the arbitrariness of identifiers in computer code â the name of variables does not affect the function of the code.
Well in my case I trade crude, so no - there is absolutely no way to trade tick by tick on that instrument. I never use the DOM, just a very short-range chart. Here is a quote from another thread on my method. It's probably the hardest thing to do in the markets, and I don't always do it. I usually do wait at least 30 seconds to 1 minute after the release for it to give SOME indication of where it's going. http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2554697#post2554697 In order to analyze news, you have to analyze it in the context of market action. The big players already knew what the news was. They created a big run up so that people would notice. Then the "good" news comes out, and all the clueless newbies jump in. They think: "The market has gone higher, and now there's good news that came out. Aha! So THAT'S why it went higher! I was holding off before because I didn't know why it was running up - but I'd better jump in now that I'm sure things are good, because now it's got to keep going for sure!" The average person is clueless. They really don't think much further than good news = higher, bad news = lower, and this thought process is reinforced in them every day by the lies spun to them in the mainstream media about what's really driving the market. That's why they're called sheep. The players set the sheep up, set their sell orders up top, and unloaded as the dummies were buying. Then they created a rout, as all the weak hands sold out in a panic. ("What's going on??!?! I don't understand??!?! How can the market be dropping like this when the news is good?? It must be a mistake! I KNOW the news is good, who are these dummies that are selling? I know, I'll just buy more at these cheap prices since I know that things are fundamentally good now! Oh crap! It's still going down!!! AAAAAAGGHHGH! What the HELL!!!! How long can this damn thing fall!?!?!?! Holy Crap! This is too much!!! SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL!!!" Usually that's right about when the bottom comes. That's how the clueless people are liberated from their money. So when you see good news come out and market stalls (especially after a rise), or you see bad news come out and market just sits there and churns huge volume but doesn't drop very far, it means that the big players are reversing their positions and using the news to get the sheep in on the wrong side of the trade. This is easier to spot at a bottom than a top, usually. Bottoms form in an incredible panic, tops generally have a distribution phase that lasts a bit longer and is a bit harder to spot. Incidentally, they have been doing this for a couple of weeks. The market has been churning in a range for a number of trading days after a rise of 2 months. That's a sign of distribution. There were also divergences forming with other markets that had to make you cautious to the downside. Right before any big drop you will probably get a quick final rise, and right before any big rise you will generally get a quick final drop to shake out the weak hands and get them going the wrong way.
swtrader says: "It's my experience that traing room leaders are masters of shaving the realities of actual entries and exits into 'theoretical entries and exits, and it's the differnece between being profitable and unprofitable your taught to make trades based on the best way to mislead a group of people watching..." I just don't get it. How the heck can someone who does not know how to trade make it appear that they can, month after month? What exactly have you former room members witnessed? Is it like faith healers? (Not to knock faith healing but....)
Do you think we're on the verge of a trend change to the downside, and this market has finally topped out, or do you think we'll see new highs before that happens?
they tend to overtrade scalps, and flat out lie about their actual entries and exits - just small shaves here and there - turning consistent losses into consistent profits - and anyone who cant get the same results 'isnt trading well enough' ; they dont do it month after month, not to the same people anyway, after forking over $1000 for a few month's membershop, they give up and quit and the leader has replaced them with a fresh new sucker
That's very tough to say at this point. The market was due for a drop like this. We've got a big support level around 975 or so. I wouldn't be surprised to see it get there, but what happens after that will determine things. The problem with making market predictions in these times is that the market is manipulated by the government at the moment. If you really want to think about what's going to happen, you have to think like they do. Do you think they're going to just let it collapse right now? A few shakeouts here and there is one thing, but an outright collapse - I doubt it. I would have to see a lot more evidence before I started believing that. Right now everyone is thinking that September and October are the worst months of the year. Everyone knows that markets drop in those months, right? And look - here, it's started to drop! Perfect! I'll just go short! When you start to see a lot of people talking like that the same way they were talking about the head and shoulders in early July, I'd be real careful. They can turn on the spigot on this thing any time they want. The amount of money it takes to goose the market is nothing compared to what they've already dropped supporting the economy. You think they're going to let their "picture perfect" recovery start to show signs of weakness through a dropping market? Especially after they got it this close to DOW 10K? I'm not so sure. Right now you have to keep watching, but if the market doesn't continue to sell off very far, watch for a return to the upside at some point. I can't make a prediction at this point if or when that will come, and it could be from lower levels than where we are now, but you still have to be cautious here.
I wish I hadn't been so foolish as to try and short this manipulated market. I figured that they couldn't keep it propped up this long. Even though I'd like to short the farm to get back the money I lost, I'm definitely worried that Sept. and Oct. won't be a replay of last year. Still I'm wondering if they could keep really the charade going beyond, say, next Spring? Could they really keep it going that long?