You're absolutely right. He was afraid to take the trade because of the news event at 10am EST. He has a rule about not trading the first 15 minutes after the open, and then there was a news event coming up at 10am EST so he decided to wait until after the news event and then had a rule about not trading until 5 minutes after a news event and by then it had accelerated into a free-fall and he had a tough time getting any pullback at all to get in. He also had the room open in the pre-market but didn't get in there either (pre-market is usually too risky for his taste). EDIT: thanks...will give the MA crossovers a try.
Ha ha ha ha... well, isn't that perfect. He has 1000 rules about when not to trade, so I guess you have to pay for months of access to his room before you get to see all of his trade setups because they are so infrequent. Sounds like a good plan to me - if you're the one collecting the money. There is nothing wrong with trading pre-market... just because he doesn't do it, doesn't mean that you shouldn't look at it. Forget about whatever he is saying and come up with what makes sense to YOU.
In continuing with my FREE lesson on how to trade a trend (you don't have to pay me anything - how lucky!), here is a chart showing you the right way to follow a trending move. I just set up a 3 range chart on the ES that shows today's move, with two moving averages on it (10 period EMA and 30 period EMA). Short when the fast EMA crosses the long EMA, cover when it crosses back. You would have caught 15 points today if you had used this. Now, the TRICK is to know when to use this. You can't just use it all the time, or you will get chopped up. You'll have to figure out for yourself how you determine that the market is in trend mode (hint: look at volume), but once you determine it, then use this method or one similar to it.
Dunno... I don't really sign up for trading rooms. In general most of them suck from what I can tell. This one, however, has a free 30-day trial: www.advancedtradingworkshop.com I did attend a webinar once taught by one of the guys from this place, where he talked about VSA, which is actually a useful method to learn... so I can say that at least some of what they are teaching does makes sense. However, I can't speak to the quality of what is actually inside the room and I am NOT endorsing them by any means, but at least it is free to try. On balance, I would say that trading rooms and educators in general aren't going to help you as much as going on your own, and there are no shortcuts either way. But if you insist on trying a room, at least make sure that you don't pay one dime until you see what is going on.
Thanks for the free lesson FB123. I'm using a platform that has tick charts but have no idea what a "3 range chart" is. I'm experimenting with a 1600 tick chart. If using tick charts, would that be a good tick setting to use?
Range charts build new bars when price moves out of a range, in this case, 3 ticks. You can do a search on Google. Range charts are the best types to use with MAs in my opinion, because each bar is fixed width, and they also don't suffer from periods of low volume... this makes MAs track reliably and well on them. A tick or volume based chart will build one large bar if price moves far during a low volume time (like after-market), which will throw off your MAs. Range charts don't have that problem. If you don't have range charts, the next best would be constant volume charts in my opinion, and then tick charts (although they are basically pretty close). It doesn't matter what setting you use for the number of ticks, it just has to be adjusted depending on the volume that the market trades (more volume = higher tick setting). And only use it during normal market hours. You can experiment with tick settings until you get something that you like.... just see whatever works for you, and what you would have felt comfortable trading during today's move. There are no "magic" settings, but a tick setting that is too small will give you a lot of noise, and one that is too large will give you only a few large bars which is also no good. Experiment and see what you like.
I also signed up for a month in July, and it was the same thing, the market was trending big moves but he failed to capitalize on trends. I saw clear signals to enter the market , but he keep staying that he's waiting for confirmations. I stayed in the room for three days and never returned. I decided that wasn't waste my time and possible money learning useless strategies that avoids big trends.
Well I don't know about you, but I did say last night that the way we dived after that fed announcement and weakened right into the close was bearish: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2584537#post2584537 Also, I previously mentioned that a short-term top wouldn't be indicated until we got a day of heavy selling with some follow through. Right now we are seeing that yesterday and today. It "feels" a bit different than some of the other sell-offs. However, it is still premature to go around calling this the end of the rally from March. Keep in mind that we are not yet over DOW 10K, and that is a tempting prize for the powers-that-be. I could see us consolidating for a bit and getting everyone bearish before one more final push above the 10K barrier.