ES Futures margin is only 6930/Future. I assume long Future and long put is less than $6930 plus the value of the put but it takes me too long to model that on the CME SPAN calculator. The notional value of the ES future is the price*$50. E.G. $2990*$50=$149,500
"You keep looking at notional value. Not sure that is the best process." I am not sure what other value is there to look at ?
$50/point/future. September ATM IVOL is about 10. 16 is about a 1% move. That implies right now about a 0.625% move per day or 18 points per day. 18*$50 = $900 I'm doing a lot of rounding. Sep is more like 11+,