Don, I think all these people have different issues and I think some of them are fair and valid. Others not so much. I did have an issue with your statement earlier about futures and equities. It was not meant as a criticism, but more from a practical matter. I love to have intellectual debate and dialogue about this industry as evidenced by the TST thread and quite frankly, my involvement on the prop forums over the last decade. Back in the day when I was at VTrader, we got into some spirited debates about options vs equities. I didn't like your characterization of the entire options industry. And with the recent statement regarding futures, I just wanted to say something about that because by definition, it's factually untrue. There is zero difference between futures and stock other then one is a forward agreement and the other trades at present value. They both go up and they both go down. Both have bids and offers. I think one could make an argument that since futures are traded on one exchange instead of millions of ECNs and dark pools, that there may be more fairness to them. Probably debatable. But to say futures is harder then stock or that nobody makes money trading futures, well, alarm bells go off in my head when I hear that. It would be like me telling you GE is easier to trade on Arca then BATS. Nobody makes money trading on BATS. LOL. So I hope you didn't get offended by my retort. I just wanted to make this matter clear. Now options we both can argue are a little different because they do NOT trade like outright instruments. Some guys have a much better aptitude for understanding them then others. Options also present unique challenges to risk management at prop firms. But futures and stock are the same Don. I can prove it mathematically. The same.
OK, stocks and futures are the same. My point is that the futures tend to lead the SPY's (do you agree?), and that stocks tend to follow the market direction (again, do you agree?). You know me well enough to understand that I'm not pissing in the wind here, or trying to put any instrument down. If I hear Ben saying " ...Goldman is a buyer, Number One is backing down" or similar, then my stock trades tend to go up in the short term, since many futures traders (as you know very well) may hedge their positions with stocks or ETF's. Same on the reverse side, that's why Bob and I both cannot really trade without listening to the squawk box, like many of my top guys. Most new people don't even have an idea of what I'm talking about, and thus the need to teach "market mechanics" - you and I know all this automatically, but many don't. Futures are fun, and we just substitute leveraged, sector ETF's or SPY's or whatever, same result for traders. I may have a hard time determining the level of understanding that I can expect from people on the phone, or here, but since I know you and your history, I can speak plainly. All the best, Don
No, I do NOT agree. Sometimes bonds are leading the spoos. Sometimes the Dollar is. Sometimes Oil. And yes Don, sometime AAPL catches a bid which draws a bid into the spoos. You can't make blanket statements like that. And come on Don, you admitted on this forum your days of tick f*cking stocks are over, you are holding shit for days and weeks. Nobody in your shop is trading off your fair value calculation anymore. But I like this, finally your rolling up your sleeves and talking shop. See it doesn't hurt now does it?
+1 There is a reason why the big prop firms don't push futures. They don't make nearly the amount of commissions as they do with equities. Trading is trading. I couldn't agree more. Great post Mav.
There are always outside or individual influences, which we call the "engines of the day" much like AAPL lately, of course. Basics. But, most market mechanics are triggered by "leading indicators" and the stocks certainly won's sit still if the futures are trading at a Premium. And, yes, we certainly do use Prem and Discount to FV, Bob has it up on his screen and reads it second by second when trading futures or SPY's. And, of course (basics again) sector ETF's and related baskets can and will offer insight into short term direction. Just part of the decision making process intra day, not "the" reason for entry, but part of the "the overall" reasoning for entries or exits. We use FV for openings of course, and our $million guys do only the openings, with their own twists of course, I think we chatted about that (if not, call me next week, off on Fridays lately). Futures sell at a premium, floor traders and firms sell them, they hedge with baskets or ETF's or their choice of instruments. You know all this as well as I do, why the argument? I see everything that our Bright Traders do, and can obviously tell what's working and what's not, simple as that. edit: from you Trading is trading Don. It doesn't matter if you are trading options, stock, futures or whatever. You and I both know what makes this business hard is not the squiggly lines on a chart, but the psychological battles every trader has to fight regardless of their chosen product to trade. Alright, I'm off the soap box. Carry on.. Yes, I agree totally with that statement. Don
If that were true you could make billions a year on the free arbitrage between them. The two trade pretty closely. There is obviously a basis spread but that has nothing to do with the speed of movement.
Hey Mav The above surprises me from you. As you know US stocks are a dirty instrument, not quite as dirty as forex but they are getting there! US stocks are dirty due to sub pennying, flash orders, dark pool games and internalization, I am sure there are other nasties lurking. I am surprised the SEC hasn't cleared it up as a lot of the above are pure theft in my opinion. vested interests and all that Futures are definitely cleaner imo, not totally clean but at least when you hit the bid you can see it leave, try doing that on a less liquid stock. @others Lovin the flame war here and the trolling against Don. What is it about the internet that turns people into monsters on anonymous public forums! lolol According to some here making money is now a CRIME, geez give me a break. If you dont like what Don is offering then just walk away, filling yourself with negative energy wont help you. In case you havn't worked it out yet the whole industry is designed to take money from people it's negative sum game, that's the game capiche. The market, the brokers, the trainers, the software people. Just accept that and move on. 90%+ retail traders dont make money for a number of reasons some obvious some less obvious. and guess what shock horror the majority of 'prop' traders dont make money either. get over it. To win at this game you not only need to win but you need others to lose, find a way to not lose, that's it or leave. Remember the market is a whore and it's out to shaft as many people as it can.