Which Polls Were Accurate In 2008

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by pspr, Sep 10, 2012.

  1. pspr


    Nov. 8, 2008 - On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.

    Here is the list –

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

  2. pspr


    Rasmussen Swing State Daily Tracking Sept. 10, 2012:
    Obama 46%, Romney 45%
  3. pspr


    The latest CNN/ORC poll released today shows a wider lead for President Obama than the previous CNN/ORC poll but it is doubly skewed. It massively under-samples independents while it also over-samples Democratic voters. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.


    Bye bye, RCG Trader.
  4. If Romney wins, there may be riots.....
  5. LEAPup


    Ok. That's why I've diversified with ammo, military rifles, and magazines. Those who haven't will have to deal with the cards the racist rioters deal out.
  6. Not where white people live .
  7. Lucrum



  8. As I have pointed out in other threads the above results are only from one poll,the final poll before the election.Months prior to the election Rasmussen often had McCain ahead or tied with Obama while Pew and NBC/WSJ had Obama ahead in every one of their polls from March 08 to election day






  9. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

    Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate

    Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

    On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.

    The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.
  10. pspr


    That's true. Black rioters just destroy their own lives and the lives of the decent business owners and others among them. It won't affect me if the black part of town burns to the ground. The smoke won't even blow my way.
    #10     Sep 11, 2012