Discussion in 'Trading' started by syswizard, Sep 25, 2010.
Could be, but why do you think valuation is high? PEs seem moderate...
Could you specify at what P/E level is the market supposably Delusional ? The term seems WAY out of place. Delusional would be things like BioTech stocks going from $8 to $140 in a week, or Internet Startups at $12 a share hitting $120 a share minutes after they go to market. I've seen both occur. Maybe some of you youngsters haven't.
Oh, I know, there are people on here talking about the craziness of Nasdaq running up. But I can't reconcile that with the P/E's of RIMM ( 10 ) and WDC ( 5 ). Those companies have to go up just to catch up with normal valuation methods. And if they do go up, hell the index might even rise.
It seems to me that the only reason people post these nonesense posts is they fully expect the US economy to totally implode and collapse. Yes, if you are correct, the markets will go down. But to expect this now, is, what is the term I'm looking for ...... delusional ?
Somewhere in the mania stage. When hedge fund manager telling you to buy in CNBC and the market goes up, you know you got the media and sheep in it.
Also, when Washington post tell you to buy ....
What we are missing now is the front page of Time, Newsweek or something like that..
Thanks for some validation Poy.
I think we are way beyond the great "Recession"...especially when I read these stories:
âYou need not go farther than one of our stores on midnight at the end of the month,â Simon said. âAbout 11 p.m. customers start to come in and shop, fill their grocery basket with basic items -- baby formula, milk, bread, eggs -- and continue to shop and mill about the store until midnight when government electronic benefits cards get activated, and then the checkout starts.â
Sure the market can continue to climb a "wall of worry"...but for how long before reality sets in ?
For every analyst who claims the market is undervalued you can find another one who can prove it is overvalued.
for a quick education.. read Woody Dorsey's book "behavioral trading"
It has excellent playbook and descriptions for these kinds of phases...
Heres a sample chapter:
Good Stuff..I like this guy. April 2005 ...heckuva call he made:"Sideways to corrective until 2007".
Looks like "Return to Normal" to me
Thru the prism of the last 10-15 years, quite possibly...but nothing we are witnessing can be put into a clean and tidy historical perspective. The link to the article about midnight shoppers is a good metaphor, without permanent government stimulus, it's absolutely anybody's guess as to what "fair value" represents. How can one accurately handicap a market that is essentially dependent upon continual "temporary" stimulus.
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