1250. There are too many bagholders in this market for it to lift without unloading the baggage at lower levels. I see lots of weak hands out there, especially the hedge funds who are not positioned well at the moment. They have no option but to sell as the market grinds lower. The quants are long this market but they trade on valuation and often go countertrend. That leads to temporary bull fakeouts but if they are already long, they will not be a big source of buying power as we head down. They aren't well positioned either. Its funny how people thought 1250 was rich back in 2005 when the economy was strong but now that the economy is weak, people think 1250 is cheap. Short term fluctuations don't really have as much to do with fundamentals as market psychology and price action. The psychology/price action isn't consistent with significant rallies in the indices.
Which hedge funds in particular? How would you know how the average hedge fund is positioned. The truth is you have no idea what you're talking about.